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State commitments could lead to offshore wind farms occupying up to 11% of the North Sea by 2050, says study
15/6/2026
News
Offshore wind farms could occupy 11% of the North Sea by 2050 if governments fulfil existing national commitments, according to a study led by Heriot-Watt University based on assessing operational projects and national development pipelines across the seven countries bordering the North Sea. The calculations show that meeting these state goals requires a total of 19,400 offshore wind turbines across the basin.
Such expansion would increase offshore wind coverage in the North Sea to about 58,500km² by 2050. But researchers from Heriot-Watt University, the University of Hull and the University of St Andrews pointed out in the report that they are not predicting that this will actually happen, but rather explore the consequences of national plans.
The UK remains the largest offshore wind nation in the North Sea by turbine count under this model. By 2030, the UK is projected to operate 4,200 turbines, followed by Germany with 2,700 and the Netherlands with 1,700. By 2050, the UK turbine count rises to 6,300, while Germany reaches 4,300 and the Netherlands exceeds 4,200. The Netherlands faces the highest spatial density relative to its national territory and offshore wind farms would occupy 19% of Dutch North Sea waters by 2050.
Heriot-Watt University reports that the model projects wind farms occupying 18% of Belgian waters, 15% of Danish waters, 14% of German waters, 9% of UK waters, 8% of Norwegian waters and 7% of French waters.
The study implies that the expansion could create physical interactions both above and below the water. Large wind farms generate atmospheric wakes extending 40km or more, potentially reducing energy yields at neighbouring projects across borders. Below the surface, turbines alter marine environments and limit the movement of commercial fisheries who depend on the seabed for certain harvesting methods. The research institutions are mapping alternative marine activities that can coexist within operational wind farm boundaries.
In other news, the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) reports that the international offshore wind market expanded in 2025: workers connected 9.3GW of new offshore wind capacity globally last year. These additions increased total global offshore wind capacity to 92.5GW by the end of 2025.
China maintained the largest share of new installations for the eighth consecutive year, adding 6.6GW and bringing its capacity to 48.4GW. There, the country has shifted from state feed-in tariffs to grid parity and now uses market-based renewable energy pricing.
In 2025, European developers commissioned 2GW across five wind farms in three countries, accounting for about 20% of the global annual increase.
GWEC estimates that over 50GW of offshore wind capacity are under construction worldwide. Annual installations are expected to double in 2026, triple by 2031 and surpass 50GW/y by 2035. The organisation forecasts a compound annual growth rate of 24% for the sector from 2026 to 2030. Market forecasts indicate that global offshore wind capacity could increase to 420GW by 2035, with 327GW of new capacity forecast over the next decade.
The group identifies 25GW of planned projects worldwide (excluding China) that are ready to build but remain awaiting final investment decisions. However, grid connection bottlenecks, delayed state auctions, permitting backlogs and supply chain constraints are delaying these developments.
GWEC presents an eight-point action plan for policymakers which instructs governments to classify offshore wind farms, transmission grids, ports and storage facilities as nationally important infrastructure. The plan advises states to establish long-term grid investment schedules aligned with offshore wind auction pipelines. It also recommends increasing public financing for support infrastructure to lower private financing costs for developers.
The report recommends that industrial nations develop local manufacturing pipelines and train the necessary workforce. It also urges governments and industry groups to address public opposition and share local economic information with coastal communities. The policy roadmap calls for direct public investment to decarbonise heavy industry through electrification, aiming to make offshore wind the primary electricity source for national energy grids. The data shows that markets such as China, the European Union, Japan, the Philippines, South Korea, Türkiye (Turkey), the UK and Vietnam are adjusting planning frameworks to accelerate deployment, attributed to efforts to reduce national exposure to international fossil fuel price volatility.
