As policymakers and energy professionals prepare for COP30 in Belém, Brazil, there is a growing push for a rapid upscaling of speculative technological solutions – green hydrogen economies, sustainable aviation fuel, carbon capture and storage (CCS) facilities and direct air capture (DAC) systems. Yet all of these options are still pursuing commercial viability. In our new report, Decarbonising the UK revisited: reflecting on 20 years of UK energy system scenarios and their policy implications, we underscore this challenge as a persistent blind spot.

We show that energy scenarios, which are structured tools used to outline different possible future pathways for the energy system and support planning decisions, rely heavily on future breakthrough technologies to deliver change, whilst they often overlook the potential of proven solutions – such as wind turbines – that, as time goes by, actually deliver results.

We analysed over 80 UK energy scenarios developed between 2002 and 2009, comparing their modelling results against what materialised. Most of the scenarios assumed coal-based CCS would be operational at scale by 2022. Many expected widespread use of hydrogen as a fuel in transport and heating. The reality? The UK just closed its last coal plant without implementing CCS at scale, and hydrogen remains predominantly an industrial feedstock.

Meanwhile, UK energy demand fell to levels that only one of 80 scenarios considered plausible, driven by a range of factors including significant efficiency improvements across homes, industry and services. Although those scenarios that explored lower-carbon futures anticipated changes in fuel supply across sectors, UK transport remains 92% oil-dependent and homes overwhelmingly use gas for heating – areas where breakthroughs were expected but never materialised. Our research underscores that scenarios typically overlook everyday solutions like energy efficiency, greater use of public transport and home insulation, whilst being too reliant on the future deployment of emerging technologies.

We show that energy scenarios... rely heavily on future breakthrough technologies to deliver change, whilst they often overlook the potential of proven solutions – such as wind turbines – that, as time goes by, actually deliver results.

Proven pathways for transformative change
Real-world examples demonstrate that the systematic application of known solutions can deliver system-level changes, improving everyday life whilst reducing emissions, when backed by coherent policy, finance and public support. The examples below from Europe illustrate how city and regional authorities have used regulatory measures, urban planning reforms and citizen engagement to deliver measurable emissions reductions across buildings, transport and public spaces.

In the Brussels-Capital Region, authorities mandated passive house standards, transforming the city from having among Europe’s poorest building efficiency to one of the very best. This regional policy, later expanded nationally, capped heating demand at 15 kWh/m²/y and cut region-wide emissions by 18% between 2004 and 2015 by combining regulation with strong citizen engagement.

Barcelona’s superblocks reorganised street networks to restrict through-traffic, with the Poblenou pilot cutting traffic by 82% and reclaiming 23 km² of public space, targeting 230,000 tCO₂ annual savings by 2030 – roughly 21% of city transport emissions. Meanwhile, Paris embedded the 15-minute city in planning and budgets after decades of car-centric development, combining reallocated road space with participatory budgeting, halving car use since 2002 and reducing carbon emissions by 36%.

These cases illustrate that coherent policy packages, delivered over multiple years and adapted to local conditions, can deliver measurable, system-wide reductions and with clear co-benefits.

Recalibrating for reality
Given the disconnect between what scenarios explored and what actually worked, how should energy professionals approach future planning? Our analysis offers practical insights.

First, demand methodologically diverse scenarios when making planning decisions. Most of the scenarios analysed use a cost-optimised approach, whereas Tyndall’s original scenarios – the only suite that explored the low levels of energy demand seen today – used an open exploratory backcasting method. Cost-optimised models, which still dominate contemporary planning in the UK, systematically missed what has actually emerged. Energy professionals should insist on multiple perspectives – climate-optimal pathways, backcasted approaches, exploratory visioning – before committing to major infrastructure investments.

Second, scrutinise technology deployment timelines with harsh realism. When investment decisions hinge on unproven technologies, demand clear milestones and contingency plans. When all scenarios assume the same technological breakthrough – as they did with operational CCS deployment by 2022 – the lack of variety in explored futures becomes problematic. It is essential then to advocate for portfolios weighted toward proven solutions – treating unproven technologies as high-risk additions, not foundations.

Third, recognise transformative demand reduction as policy choice, not a technical impossibility. The systematic under-exploration of this area wasn’t caused by its impossibility – Brussels, Barcelona and Paris show otherwise. Models and mindsets simply favour large-scale technical solutions over distributed everyday measures. Energy professionals are uniquely positioned to champion these overlooked opportunities.

Finally, question whether current strategies truly meet UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) obligations. Our analysis shows that the possibility space for meaningful climate action has shrunk dramatically. Energy professionals should advocate for genuinely exploring what the greatest ambition means when it comes to climate action, not just what’s deemed politically palatable or economically optimal – at the very least.

Looking toward COP30
The systematic undervaluation of proven, distributed solutions in favour of speculative technologies has real consequences for climate policy. This ‘techno-optimism’ shapes investment decisions, delays implementation of effective measures, and creates misplaced confidence in technological salvation.

As COP30 emphasises ‘Global Mutirão’ – collective community action – the most impactful climate conversations in Belém should focus on what already works at scale: building standards that tackle energy demand, urban planning that reduces transport emissions and systematic deployment of proven solutions.

The Tyndall Centre is a partnership between the universities of East Anglia (headquarters), The University of Manchester, Newcastle University, The Centre for Social Climate Change and Social Transformations, and Fudan University in Shanghai.

The views and opinions expressed in this article are strictly those of the author only and are not necessarily given or endorsed by or on behalf of the Energy Institute.

• Further reading: ‘Decarbonising UK infrastructure – sustaining momentum beyond policy cycles’. We have the technology to decarbonise UK infrastructure, but do we have consistent and long-term funding and policy frameworks to succeed? George Barnes MEI Chartered Energy Manager, Technical Director, Building Performance Lead with global engineering company WSP, considers.
• How can we solve UK energy efficiency policy inaction? The UK has one of the worst insulated housing stocks in Europe, yet the government recently announced it will no longer require homeowners and landlords to meet energy efficiency targets that would have helped reduce residents’ energy bills and emissions. Nic Gillanders, CEO of South Coast Insulation Services (SCIS), offers some solutions.