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New Energy World magazine logo
New Energy World magazine logo
ISSN 2753-7757 (Online)

Why COP30 needs to move faster to hit climate goal

22/10/2025

10 min read

Feature

Overview of city of Belém, from the air, looking from above the sea to land, showing skyscrapers and other city buildings as well as small boats just offshore Photo: Adobe Stock/Ori Junior
Belém is located on the Tocantins River near the Amazon Delta

Photo: Adobe Stock/Ori Junior

There is likely to be an increased sense of urgency at COP30 in Belém, Brazil, as governments, business leaders, national, regional and local communities, and environmental lobbies prepare to get together on 10–21 November to thrash out support for stronger climate action. New Energy World Features Editor Brian Davis considers the key issues pre-COP.

About 100 countries, as Parties to the Paris Agreement representing two-thirds of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, met at a pre-COP meeting in Brazil in October to submit their national commitments to accelerate action. There was plenty of debate about commitments on finance, decarbonisation, resilience and governance, with some unifying signals at the highest levels, but also real gaps to be closed.

 

A big stir was created by the announcement of significant emission reduction targets by China and Nigeria. And other nations detailed renewable energy goals, with ambitious plans for methane emission reductions, strategies to safeguard forest and measures – to a greater or lesser extent – to phase out fossil fuels.

 

But is it fast enough? Given that developing countries have underscored the importance of incorporating adaptation, resilience and the long-argued ‘loss and damage’ measures within the National Determined Contribution (NDC) targets – stressing the need for scaled-up financing to meet their ambitions.

 

Indeed, the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), in concert with the COP30 Brazilian Presidency and the Global Renewables Alliance, released an alarming new report that calls for governments to move faster to hit the COP28 UAE consensus target to triple renewables to 11.2 TW by 2030.

 

The report, Delivering on the UAE Consensus: tracking progress towards tripling renewable energy capacity, points out that although global renewable capacity additions reached a record 582 GW, the growth is well off track. Meeting the goal now demands a ‘staggering’ (IRENA’s word) 1,122 GW of added renewable capacity every year from 2025 onwards, requiring annual growth to accelerate to 16.6% through the decade. The report also highlights concern about energy efficiency, as global energy capacity improved by just 1% in 2024, well below the 4% annual gains needed to keep the 1.5°C target alive.

 

The IRENA report calls for urgent action to integrate renewable targets into national climate plans (NDC 3.0); to double the collective NDC ambition; and to scale investment in renewables to at least $1.4tn/y in 2025–2030 – more than doubling the $624bn invested in 2024.

 

UN Secretary General António Guterres insisted that: ‘The clean energy revolution is unstoppable. Renewables are being deployed faster and cheaper than fossil fuels… But the window to keep the 1.5°C limit within reach is rapidly closing. We must step up, scale up and speed up the just energy transition.’ Pointedly, no mention was made of President Trump’s abandonment of the Paris Agreement.

 

Despite Trump’s famous call to ‘drill, baby, drill’, the G20 nations are projected to account for over 80% of global renewables by 2030, with the G7 expected to shoulder a leadership role of around 20% of global renewable capacity this decade.

 

However, China has certainly moved forward in addressing the climate change agenda. President Xi Jinping recently announced China’s 2035 pledge to cut net GHG carbon emissions by 7–10% from peak levels by 2035 and increase the share of non-fossil fuels in total energy consumption to over 30%; while expanding the installed capacity of wind and solar power to over six times 2020 levels, striving to bring the total to 3,600 GW; and scaling up the total forest volume to over 24bn m3; expanding the national carbon emissions trading market to cover high-emission sectors; and aiming to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060 by establishing a climate adaptive society.

 

At a smaller, but still significant scale, Nigeria’s new NDC commits to reducing GHG emissions by 32% by 2035 compared to 2018 levels, while scaling up renewables to provide over half of the electricity supply by 2030; and also sets a net zero goal by 2060.

 

Focus on process
Although progress is substantial, it has required multilateral efforts, according to UN Climate Change Deputy Executive Secretary Noura Hamladjii at the China Carbon Market Conference in Shanghai. ‘Without UN-convened cooperation, humanity would be headed towards 5°C of global heating, which would decimate the global economy,’ she remarked.

 

Nevertheless, she continued: ‘We are now headed for around 3°C , which shows how far we have come through national efforts under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)… but also shows how far we have to go, as climate-driven floods, droughts and storms hit every country harder each year, driving down GDP, harming critical infrastructure and food security.’

 

There is still a need to go further and faster, says Alden Meyer, Senior Associate, Climate Diplomacy and Geopolitics at independent climate change think tank E3G. He considers that the COP30 climate summit ‘must see the nations of the world deliver a forceful and effective response to the climate emergency… with ministers and other senior officials working together with the [Brazilian] Presidency to narrow their differences on key negotiation issues and build the trust that will be essential to make COP30 a success’.

 

He suggests that a credible COP30 outcome will depend on strong political and real-world signals from coalitions of countries, businesses and financial institutions. ‘With a global and inclusive high-level dialogue on the transition away from fossil fuels, that could provide a structured space for countries and non-state actors to explore global transition pathways, develop country-specific roadmaps, address economic and social challenges, and identify the support needed to accelerate the transition,’ in his opinion.

 

What is the Action Agenda? 
The COP30 Action Agenda is structured around six pillars and 30 key objectives: transitioning to cleaner energy, industry and developing sustainable transport; stewarding forests, oceans and biodiversity; transforming agriculture and food systems for more sustainability; fostering human and social development; and cross-cutting enablers like finance, technology and capacity building – in a bid to triple renewables and double energy efficiency.

 

The Action Agenda is designed to mobilise voluntary climate action from civil society, businesses, investors, cities, states and countries to intensify emission reductions, climate adaptation and transition to sustainable economies, as set out in the Paris Agreement. It aims to inaugurate a framework capable of accelerating the implementation of what has already been negotiated, based on the results of the first Global Stocktake (GST-1) under the Paris Agreement, in five-year cycles to assess progress and guide a global action plan.

 

The over-arching ambition of COP30 is to mark a decisive shift in the global climate process, with grassroots mobilisation, reformed governance and concrete actions. Addressing proposals like deforestation phase-out, with ambitious renewable energy targets, and the launch of the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF) – a $4bn/y performance-based fund aiming to reward countries for conserving tropical forests, and where COP30 is seen as a pivotal moment of structural change. The TFFF initiative is supported by BRICS nations – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – along with the UK and Norway, with at least 20% earmarked for indigenous peoples and local communities.

 

Brazil is also proposing a Global Ethical Stocktake to ensure that justice is embedded in climate action, led by Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and UN Secretary General Guterres.

 

Also, through a Coalition for High Ambition Multilevel Partnerships (CHAMP), Brazil is advocating for local and regional governments to gain access to climate finance and technical support. The new Local Leaders Forum will convene hundreds of mayors, governors and other subnational leaders to exchange climate solutions and showcase how states and regions are driving multi-level progress in climate action globally, coordinating climate action in broader forums such as the G20, International Monetary Fund (IMF), BRICS and World Bank meetings, as well as the UN General Assembly.

 

Some sour grapes and positive perceptions
Although expectations are high for COP30, there are some detractors. There have been critics of recent COPs, in particular COP29 which was held in Azerbaijan’s capital, Baku, and previously in the United Arab Emirates, a petrostate. An influential group including former UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon, the former President of Ireland Mary Robinson, and former UN Climate Chief Christiana Figueres, wrote to the UN contending that the current complex process of annual Conferences of the Parties (COP) under the UNFCCC ‘is no longer fit for purpose’. They suggested the ‘need for a shift from negotiation to implementation’. Figueres pointed out that at a recent COP, ‘fossil fuel lobbyists outnumbered representatives of science institutions, indigenous communities and vulnerable nations’.

 

Fortunately, Brazil has garnered a more positive reputation in terms of the energy transition. At COP29, Brazil committed to an updated NDC contribution which sets a target to reduce GHG emissions to 67% by 2035, compared to 2005 levels – equivalent to a reduction of 850mn to 1.5bn tones of CO2. Moreover, while 69 countries generate up to 50% of their electricity from renewable sources, Brazil has already surpassed the 80% mark.

 

But on the downside, the COP30 location near the Amazon jungle at Belém is considered to be too small and ill-equipped to host the world’s foremost climate conference. For this reason, some climate summit participants have chosen to meet for related discussions in Rio de Janeiro. Moreover, the state of Pará, where Belém is located, is also home to the country’s largest illegal gold mines, which poison rivers and devastate forests, according to Americas Quarterly. In 2024, deforestation in this state reached 1,271 km2, and wildfires cloaked much of Brazil in black smoke for weeks. Belém is also a logistical hub in Brazil’s plans to drill for oil in 47 offshore blocks in a fragile ecosystem at the Amazon River’s mouth.

 

Looking forward to November
Nevertheless, Túlio Andrade, COP30 Chief of Strategy and Alignment, and one of the facilitators of the recent pre-COP discussion group on the Paris Agreement Global Stocktake, said: ‘We are very pleased to see that we have a solid foundation that can take us to Belém with strong prospects for a positive outcome in the GST. These were linked to a strong message of support for multilateralism, particularly on the 10th anniversary of the Paris Agreement… Finally, there was a recognition of the need for an urgent response to climate change, focused on enhanced implementation and strengthened international cooperation.’

 

So, let’s look on the bright side. As Meyer of E3G asserts: ‘COP30 is an opportunity to close the massive ambition gaps on adaptation, mitigation and climate finance… building trust will be essential to make COP30 a success.’

 

  • Further reading: ‘What did COP29 achieve for climate finance?' COP29 closed on 23 November 2024 having brokered several new climate finance agreements, including a new finance goal, to help countries to protect their people and economies against climate disasters. Reaction to the agreements has been mixed.
  • Discover more about COP29’s so-called New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG) – what do the numbers mean, where do they come from, and who will have the power to make the money choices?