The UK stands at an energy crossroads. One path leads to managed decline, with more imports, fewer jobs and the dismantling of infrastructure we will still need for decades to come. The other leads to renewal, where we back homegrown energy, attract billions in investment and use the North Sea as a springboard for the energy transition. Which path we take depends not on geology but on policy.

The North Sea has been a key factor in the prosperity of this country. For over 50 years it has powered the UK, built skills and created supply chains that reach into every part of the country. Oil and gas still meet three quarters of our energy needs.

Even in 2030, government forecasts say half our energy will come from hydrocarbons. The UK will use between 10–15bn barrels of oil and gas to 2050. Yet current forecasts show the North Sea meeting less than a third of that demand. The result is record reliance on imports supplying more than 65% of our needs.

This is not just an Aberdeen story. Eleven terminals around the coast land our oil and gas, the backbone of an industrial ecosystem stretching from Grangemouth to Humberside, Teesside, Tyneside, East Anglia and the north-west.

Analysis by Westwood Global Energy Group shows throughput at these hubs has fallen by nearly 40% since 2020 and could halve again by 2030. This risks industrial contagion, weakening refineries, chemical plants and supply chains far beyond the energy sector.

Mature basin
Some argue this is the inevitable fate of a mature basin. OEUK’s latest Environmental Insight report shows the sector has cut emissions by 34% since 2018, beating 2027 targets three years early. Methane is down 57%, ahead of 2030 goals.

The UK now produces 0.7% of the world’s oil and gas, but only 0.5% of its upstream emissions, far cleaner than many alternatives. Indeed, LNG imports can carry up to four times the carbon footprint of North Sea gas. Environmentally and economically, it makes sense to make the most of the homegrown resources on our doorstep.

Yet policy is driving decline faster than geology. The Energy Profits Levy has become a symbol of instability. It is delivering only a third of the revenue originally projected, while choking investment.

Ineos has stopped investing in the UK. Apache and Chevron are preparing to exit. As many as 1,000 jobs a month are being lost. This would be unacceptable in any other sector. It is no wonder capital is flowing to more predictable regimes.

Norway continues licensing responsibly while scaling renewables. The US and the Middle East are attracting billions. The UK cannot afford to be left behind.

The opportunity remains. Independent analysis shows up to 7.5bn barrels could still be produced from UK waters, more than 3bn above current estimates. With sensible reforms to tax and licensing we could meet half our oil and gas needs at home and unlock up to £165bn of economic value.

OEUK’s Economic Report shows this could mean £150bn added to the economy, £41bn of extra investment, 23,000 additional jobs by 2030 and £12bn in tax receipts by 2050. Alongside renewables, hydrogen and carbon capture and storage, the UK offshore sector could invest over £200bn by 2035, rising to £400bn by 2040.

The UK now produces 0.7% of the world’s oil and gas but only 0.5% of its upstream emissions, far cleaner than many alternatives.

Securing the future
This is not about clinging to the past. It is about securing the future. Oil and gas revenues already underpin renewables projects and low-carbon developments. More than 90% of OEUK members say they rely on them to fund new energy. Hydrocarbons and clean energy are part of the same system.

The North Sea is naturally declining. Around 180 of today’s 280 producing fields will close by 2030. That is the geological reality. But shutting hubs prematurely because of unstable policy risks losing the chance to develop tieback projects. Once the infrastructure is gone, it cannot be brought back.

The just transition means keeping skills, jobs and communities at the heart of change. It means producing oil and gas here while cutting emissions, rather than importing at higher cost. It means stable policies that give investors confidence to back both hydrocarbons and renewables.

The choice is stark. Managed decline leading to imports, lost jobs and weaker industry, or a homegrown energy transition built on pragmatic reform that secures our supply, strengthens our economy and underpins the shift to net zero.

The future of the North Sea is in our hands. Policy, not geology, will decide whether it remains a cornerstone of the UK’s energy system and a success story not just of the past but of the decades to come.

• Further reading: ‘Aberdeen oil and gas industry hits out at taxation at Offshore Europe’. UK offshore energy trade association OEUK blames the UK government’s tax regime and the Energy Profits Levy for accelerating the decline of offshore energy production, by deterring capital investment.
• Developers of new UK oil and gas projects face a tough new climate test, which will make it difficult for the UK government to approve new projects, argues Fergus Green, Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science and School of Public Policy at University College London.