Speaking in a video address at the UN Summit, President Xi Jinping committed China to cut emissions across the economy by 7–10% from peak levels by 2035, while also ‘striving to do better’. The country is responsible for around 29% of global emissions, and so is the world’s largest GHG emitter.

The absolute target marks a significant shift in approach in China’s emissions strategy. Xi had previously pledged that China would ‘peak its CO₂ emissions before 2030’, without specifying at what level, and would ‘reach carbon neutrality by 2060’. Previously, China’s emissions targets have largely centred on carbon intensity (emissions per unit of GDP), a metric that does not directly constrain emissions as a whole.

Xi also announced that the share of non-fossil fuels in China’s total energy consumption was to be increased to over 30%, a rise from the 25% announced under the country’s previous 2021 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). All while installed capacity of wind and solar power would be expanded over six times 2020 levels to reach 3,600 GW, up from the 2021 NDC figure of 1,200 GW.  

In his speech, Xi also said that by 2035 ‘new energy vehicles’ (which include electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles and fuel-cell vehicles) would be the ‘mainstream’ for new vehicle sales. He also said that China’s national carbon market would cover all ‘major high-emission industries’ and that by then China would become ‘a climate adaptive society.’

‘These targets represent China’s best efforts based on the requirements of the Paris Agreement,’ said Xi. Adding: ‘Meeting these targets requires both painstaking efforts by China itself and a supportive and open international environment. We have the resolve and confidence to deliver on our commitments.’

In the lead up to announcing China’s new targets, Xi pointed out that 2025 marked the 10th anniversary of the Paris Agreement and was ‘a pivotal year’ for countries to submit their latest NDCs. ‘Global climate governance is entering a key stage,’ he said.

First, he stressed the need to ‘firm up confidence’. Alluding to the US scaling back climate commitments under President Trump, he said: ‘Green and low-carbon transition is the trend of our time. While some country is [sic] acting against it, the international community should stay focused on the right direction, remain unwavering in confidence, unremitting in actions and unrelenting in intensity, and push for formulation and delivery on NDCs, with a view to providing more positive energy to the cooperation on global climate governance.’

He then stated it was important to ‘live up to responsibilities’. He continued: ‘In the course of global green transition, fairness and equity should be upheld and the right to development of developing countries fully respected. The transition should serve to narrow rather than widen the North-South gap. Countries need to honour the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities, whereby developed countries should take the lead in fulfilling emission reduction obligations and provide more financial and technological support to developing countries.’

Third, ‘we must deepen cooperation', said Xi. ‘The world now faces a huge demand for green development. It is important that countries strengthen international coordination in green technologies and industries to address the shortfall in green production capacity and ensure free flow of quality green products globally, so that the benefits of green development can reach all corners of the world.’

‘Great visions require concrete actions,’ concluded President Xi. ‘Climate response is an urgent yet long-term task. Let’s all step up our actions.’

Momentum gathers towards COP30  

Although China stole the show with its announcement, other major emitters also came forward with new climate pledge announcements at the UN Summit, including the world’s fourth biggest emitter (5%), Russia. Its latest NDC target includes reducing GHG emissions to 65–67% of 1990 levels by 2035, with a view to achieving net zero GHG emissions by 2060.

According to the UN, around 100 parties to the Paris Agreement, representing two-thirds of global GHG emissions, have now either submitted or unveiled new NDC 2035 targets. Among them was Nigeria, which aims to reduce GHG emissions by 29% by 2030 and 32% by 2035 (compared to 2018 levels), supported by natural gas as a ‘transition fuel’ for electricity and transport. Its plan also includes a net zero by 2060 target.

While noting the pledges announced at the Summit ‘marked progress’, the UN also highlighted that leaders had acknowledged ‘ambition gaps remain to keep 1.5°C in reach and deliver on finance and adaptation’. Adding that the technologies and tools needed to decarbonise energy, transport and industry, protect forests and strengthen resilience are ‘already available’, the UN said: ‘The challenge now is to accelerate scale.’

A number of countries have yet to finalise their NDCs, including India, the world’s third largest GHG gas emitter (8% of global emissions). Meanwhile, although the world’s second largest emitter, the US (20%), submitted its 2035 NDC pledge in 2024 under former President Joe Biden, current President Donald Trump has since signed an order to withdraw the country from the Paris Agreement and the US pledge is now assumed to be defunct.

With COP30 just over a month away, UN Secretary-General António Guterres urged all countries yet to finalise their NDCs to do so without delay. ‘COP30 in Brazil must conclude with a credible global response plan to get us on track,’ he said.