With an expected annual output of 15,700 GWh, GERD is Africa’s most powerful hydroelectric plant and ranks among the 20 largest in the world. It is located on the Blue Nile (one of two main River Nile tributaries, the other being the White Nile) near Guba, in Ethiopia’s west near the border with Sudan. The project’s 170-metre-high, 1.8-km-wide dam wall holds back a reservoir of 74bn m³ of water, over an area larger than Greater London.  

Inaugurating the hydroelectric complex last week, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared the dam a transformative achievement not just for Ethiopia, but for the continent as a whole. Speaking at a ceremony attended by dignitaries including the presidents of Kenya, Somalia and Djibouti, he said: ‘To our [Sudanese and Egyptian] brothers, Ethiopia built the dam to prosper, to electrify the entire region and to change the history of black people.’

The government says the Ethiopian Electric Power operated project will provide reliable energy for Ethiopian households and businesses, while surplus power will be exported to neighbouring countries including Djibouti, Kenya, Sudan, South Sudan and Tanzania.  

The World Bank estimates that universal electrification could raise Ethiopia’s GDP by more than 2% annually. However, it warns that transmission remains a challenge, particularly in rural areas. Urban areas had a 94% electrification rate in 2022, but just 55% of Ethiopians overall had access to energy, according to World Bank figures.  

The Ministry of Water and Energy says it is targeting 90% overall access by 2030, a goal that will require massive grid expansion.

A symbol of sovereignty

GERD has become a symbol of Ethiopian resilience and self-reliance, according to local media. Blocked from international finance by Egyptian lobbying amidst concerns about a possible reduction of flow downstream, the Ethiopian government funded 91% of construction through state coffers, with the remainder raised domestically via bond sales and donations.

‘It has been a banner to rally under, and it shows what we can achieve when unified,’ said Mekdelawit Messay, an Ethiopian water researcher at Florida International University, talking to Reuters.

Downstream fears

GERD has long been a source of tension with countries downstream of the project, even before construction began in 2011.

Egypt, with 108 million people and a dependence on the Nile for 90% of its fresh water, sees the project as a grave threat. President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has repeatedly described GERD as an ‘existential risk’, amidst fears that it could restrict water supply to the country’s Aswan High Dam. Egypt argues that GERD contravenes the 1959 Nile Waters Treaty granting it and Sudan near-total control of the Nile, and has lodged protests at the UN Security Council.

Speaking to Reuters, the Egyptian Foreign Ministry said Egypt would continue to closely monitor developments on the Blue Nile and exercise its right to take ‘all appropriate measures’ to defend its water security.  

Sudan, too, has voiced unease, joining Egypt in calling for a binding agreement on the filling and operation of GERD; although it could also stand to benefit from reduced flooding and potential access to low-cost electricity as a result of the project.

Ethiopia and other upstream countries reject the water treaty. Ethiopian Prime Minister Ahmed has repeatedly assured neighbouring countries the project poses no harm. The GERD reservoir has been filled in phases since 2020. According to Reuters, independent studies suggest that this phased reservoir filling, combined with favourable rainfall, has so far prevented major disruptions downstream. However, there are fears that prolonged droughts could exacerbate tensions unless cooperative management frameworks are put in place.