Rystad estimates global FLNG capacity will reach 42mn t/y by 2030, climbing to 55mn t/y by 2035, almost four times the 14.1mn t/y recorded in 2024. Terminals commissioned before 2024 achieved an average utilisation rate of 86.5% in 2024 and 76% to date in 2025, figures comparable to global onshore LNG facilities, it notes.  

‘Without a prior blueprint to follow, early FLNG developments, such as Shell’s Prelude project, built in South Korea by the Technip–Samsung consortium, became a negative demonstration of FLNG’s early limitations,’ comments the market analyst. ‘Costs ballooned to $2,114/t for liquefaction alone. However, as the industry gained operational and construction experience, capital expenditure (capex) per tonne has declined significantly, bringing costs in line with onshore LNG projects.’  

Proposed developments along the US Gulf Coast now average around $1,054/t, according to Rystad. Delfin FLNG, a proposed project in the US, sits just above that average at $1,134/t, while Coral South FLNG in Mozambique, which is similar in scale, reports a comparable liquefaction cost of $1,062/t, it says. However, Rystad notes that project concepts are not entirely comparable. Some are complex integrated producers with upstream components as part of the LNG facilities, while others simply liquefy pipeline-spec gas.  

In parallel, FLNG developers are increasingly turning to vessel conversions as a cost-efficient alternative to newbuild facilities, according to Rystad. Projects such as Tortue/Ahmeyim FLNG, Cameroon FLNG and Southern Energy’s FLNG MK II are reported to have achieved notably lower capex levels of $640, $500 and $630/t, respectively, by repurposing Moss-type LNG carriers. ‘These conversions benefit from the vessels’ modular spherical tank design, which allows for simpler integration of prefabricated liquefaction modules. With several Moss-type LNG tankers expected to retire in the coming years, more could be repurposed, expanding the pipeline of lower-cost FLNG solutions,’ it adds.  

FLNG vessels are also proving their operational flexibility across diverse environments, from deepwater to ultra-deepwater fields and even onshore supply, suggests the report. Should certain projects stall, their vessel could be relocated or sold, demonstrating the inherent mobility and adaptability of FLNG assets.  

‘In the current energy environment, where markets remain tight but face the risk of oversupply, speed to first production is critical,’ says Rystad. Extended construction timelines delay revenue generation and expose projects to a higher risk of cost overruns. Rystad data also shows that FLNG units can be delivered significantly faster than onshore liquefaction facilities, ‘enabling quicker final investment decisions and more agile execution’. On average, newbuild FLNG projects are completed in approximately three years, compared to about 4.5 years (capacity-weighted) for operational onshore plants, suggests the market analyst. For FLNG vessels currently under construction, the average projected build time is even lower at 2.85 years. ‘This accelerating timeline is a key factor in the growing preference for FLNG, as developers seek to minimise exposure and accelerate returns,’ says Rystad.  

Global natural gas demand growth set to accelerate in 2026 as more LNG supply comes to market 

Meanwhile, the IEA says that following a slowdown in 2025, growth in global demand for natural gas is expected to rise in 2026, according to its latest quarterly Gas Market Report.  

The report provides a short-term outlook for natural gas supply, demand, trade and more in 2025 and 2026. It finds that market fundamentals remained tight in the first half of 2025 due to a combination of lower Russian piped gas exports to the European Union, relatively modest growth in LNG output and higher storage injection needs in Europe.  

In this context, and amid elevated macroeconomic uncertainty, global natural gas demand growth is forecast to shrink from 2.8% in 2024 to around 1.3% in 2025. The increase this year is expected to be almost entirely driven by North America and Europe, with the growth in consumption in the Asia-Pacific region – where many markets tend to be sensitive to higher prices – falling to its weakest annual rate since the energy crisis in 2022, says the IEA.  

In the first half of 2025, global natural gas consumption in Europe increased by 6.5% year-on-year, primarily supported by the electricity sector amid lower power generation from wind and hydro. ‘While this should not be interpreted as a structural trend, such episodes highlight the key role gas-fired power plants often play in ensuring electricity supply security in markets with higher shares of variable renewables,’ notes the IEA.  

In contrast, in Asia, gas demand growth decreased markedly in the first half of 2025 amid macroeconomic uncertainty and relatively high spot LNG prices. China’s natural gas demand declined by an estimated 1% year-on-year, while the country’s LNG imports plummeted by more than 20%. India recorded a decline of 7% year-on-year in the first five months of 2025, primarily due to lower demand from refining and industry. In Eurasia, gas consumption declined by about 2% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 amid an unseasonably mild winter in Russia.  

In North America, natural gas demand increased by an estimated 2.5% from the same period a year earlier. Growth was concentrated in the first quarter, when colder weather boosted gas use in buildings.

The IEA report includes a special section on the role of the Middle East in global gas markets, noting that geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran have fuelled recent price volatility.   

Meanwhile, on the supply side, global LNG supply is expected to increase by 5.5% (or 30bn m³) for the whole of 2025, primarily supported by the ramp-ups of major new LNG projects in North America. These include the Plaquemines LNG project and the Corpus Christi Stage 3 expansion, as well as LNG Canada, which recently loaded its first cargo. Growth in LNG supply is set to be partially offset by lower Russian piped gas deliveries to Europe. This forecast assumes no Russian piped gas deliveries via Ukraine for the remainder of the year, which would reduce Russian piped gas supplies to the Europe Union by around 13bn m³ in 2025 compared with 2024. 

In 2026, global LNG supply growth is forecast to rise to 7% (or 40bn m³), its strongest increase since 2019. This growth is primarily driven by the US, Canada and Qatar’s North Field East expansion project, which is expected to start operations in mid-2026. Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 project is not considered a source of firm LNG supply in the current forecast due to the broader sanctions environment.  

The report sees global demand growth picking up again in 2026 to around 2%, due to considerable increases in LNG supply.