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Middle East to overtake Asia in gas output in 2025, predicts market report
23/7/2025
News
The Middle East is on track to surpass Asia to become the world’s second-largest gas producer in 2025, ranking only behind North America, according to the latest research and analysis by Rystad Energy. Gas production in the Middle East has grown by about 15% since 2020, and the future growth underscores the determination of regional producers to monetise gas reserves and develop export potential to meet global demand, it says.
The Middle East currently produces about 69.6bn cf/d of gas, up from an average of 67.1bn cf/d in 2024, reports Rystad. Production is forecast to increase by 30% by 2030 and 34% by 2035 thanks to significant developments in Saudi Arabia, Iran, Qatar, Oman and the UAE. By 2030, the region is expected to add another 20bn cf/d, equivalent to half of Europe’s entire gas demand as of today.
Meanwhile, gas production in Asia averaged 67.2bn cf/d in 2024, with moderate increases anticipated, to reach 68.2bn cf/d in 2025 and 69.7bn cf/d by 2030.
North America remains the largest gas producer in the world, with 2025 output expected to average 127.9bn cf/d.
To fully capitalise on placing second in the global gas production ranking, the Middle East is preparing for a significant increase in gas exports, continues Rystad. By 2030, it is forecast to have an additional 10bn cf/d of gas available for export, positioning itself as a major supplier to both Europe – which is working to reduce its reliance on Russian energy – and fast-growing markets in Asia. This expansion is expected to be supported by a steady annual production increase of around 6%, with total output projected to reach 90bn cf/d by the end of the decade.
‘As more long-term gas contracts are signed and export volumes rise, the Middle East is on track to become a key energy hub for countries seeking stable and dependable sources of natural gas,’ comments Mrinal Bhardwaj, Senior Analyst, Upstream Research, Rystad Energy.
A significant portion of the expanded production will come from new projects that can produce gas at a cost-effective level of less than $5/1,000 cf. The Gulf trio of Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia are leading this gas-driven growth, with Qatar’s ambitious North Field expansion set to elevate its LNG capacity by 84%, from 77mn to 142mn t/y by the decade’s end, all while maintaining a competitive breakeven price of under $6/mn Btu, suggests Rystad.
By 2028, the region is expected to add 60mn t/y of new capacity, representing a sizable portion of Rystad Energy’s predicted global increase of 150mn t/y. Qatar is forecast to lead this expansion, adding 48mn t/y through its North Field East and North Field South projects. The UAE is projected to contribute an additional 10mn t/y from the Ruwais LNG project, and TotalEnergies is developing the Marsa LNG project with a capacity of 1mn t/y in Oman. Rystad predicts these developments will involve investments of more than $50bn, highlighting the region’s strategic effort to strengthen its position in the global LNG market.
Iran currently leads the Middle East in gas production, with about 25bn cf/d, according to the analysis, followed by Qatar at 16bn cf/d and Saudi Arabia at 8bn cf/d. Iranian gas production, which has been stagnant over the past few years due to Western sanctions, is expected to rise modestly by 6% to approximately 26bn cf/d as the decade ends. The country’s output will come from its legacy South Pars field, which was partially shut down recently during the Iran-Israel conflict after an Israeli air strike. In contrast, Qatar is poised for significant growth, with production projected to rise nearly 50% from 16bn cf/d in 2024 to 24bn cf/d in 2030, driven by the ongoing development of its massive North Field.
Apart from these two major gas-producing nations, the UAE and Saudi Arabia are expected to each add 3bn cf/d of gas, while Israel’s production is anticipated to increase by 1.5bn cf/d after the next phases of expansion at the Leviathan and Tamar fields. Although Iran is projected to end the decade as the Middle East’s largest gas producer, Rystad expects Qatar to surpass it in the early 2030s.
The UAE and Qatar are undertaking substantial capacity expansions, further cementing the region’s role as a future powerhouse in global LNG trade, notes the market analyst. The new volumes of LNG produced in both Qatar and the UAE are primarily earmarked for Asian and European buyers, with contracts demonstrating a strong preference for Asian markets. Notably, total sales and purchase agreements have surged, peaking at about 21mn t/y between 2027 and 2030, with Chinese national oil companies and global energy majors emerging as key buyers, concludes Rystad.
Rystad’s outlook hinges on Brent prices holding at $70/b and oil-indexed gas prices hovering in the range of $7–9/mn Btu. If prices fall below $6/mn Btu, new projects could be delayed and expected volume growth by 2030 could decrease from 30% to 20% or less, depending on the severity and duration of the price decline, notes the market analyst.
