UPDATED 1 Sept: The EI library in London is temporarily closed to the public, as a precautionary measure in light of the ongoing COVID-19 situation. The Knowledge Service will still be answering email queries via email , or via live chats during working hours (09:15-17:00 GMT). Our e-library is always open for members here: eLibrary , for full-text access to over 200 e-books and millions of articles. Thank you for your patience.
New Energy World™
New Energy World™ embraces the whole energy industry as it connects and converges to address the decarbonisation challenge. It covers progress being made across the industry, from the dynamics under way to reduce emissions in oil and gas, through improvements to the efficiency of energy conversion and use, to cutting-edge initiatives in renewable and low-carbon technologies.
NESO’s 25-year view maps potential UK energy transitions to net zero
23/7/2025
News
The UK’s new system operator has published its first Future Energy Scenarios (FES) towards 2050 in the guise of NESO, to help the country plan what will need to happen in UK energy supply and demand to meet the government’s 2050 net zero commitment. The annual publication is in fact the 15th.
One clear trend is the need for much more electricity; it expects electricity demand to increase from 290 TWh today to as much as 785 TWh by 2050.
NESO says: ‘This surge emphasises the need to accelerate the delivery of clean electricity, bioenergy, hydrogen and energy storage solutions. A clean future in Great Britain also requires empowering homes and businesses to embrace low-carbon heating and adopt energy efficiency measures as part of everyday life.’
The hypothetical projections, now referred to as ‘pathways’ not scenarios, consist of three to achieve net zero – ‘holistic transition’, ‘electric engagement’ and ‘hydrogen evolution’ – and one failure case, ‘falling behind’. They vary in reliance on electrification, hydrogen, bioenergy and consumer engagement.
In a webinar to launch them, Emily Leadbetter, Head of Energy Insights and Analysis, said that they ‘provide our independent view of how energy demand, supply, flexibility and emissions could evolve from today to 2050 on the road to net zero. They consider the choices that can be made and the uncertainties that still exist.’ All are based on in-house modelling with inputs from stakeholder engagement, policy and expert sources of technical and economic data.
A common thread among these pathways is the significant reduction in annual emissions, potentially halving to around 200 megatonnes (Mt) of CO2 a year within the next decade and further shrinking to 100 Mt of CO2 by 2040 with the right infrastructure in place.
The report also divides the coming 25 years to 2050 into three successive waves. Following initial foundations, we are now in a five-year wave, scaling up markets by 2030 to integrate new low-carbon technologies to deliver clean power. Success in this phase will pave the way for the third and fourth waves (each lasting a decade), leading to growth and completion by 2050.
Fintan Slye, Chief Executive of NESO, said: ‘Over the past year, we have run the electricity system at 95% zero-carbon for the first time and phased out coal entirely from our energy system. But this isn’t enough. We need to go further and faster, accelerating the roll-out of clean energy technologies is imperative to help deliver a clean and affordable energy system in the long-term.’
‘The choices made today will shape the success of each wave of Britain’s transition. That means speeding up the adoption of energy efficiency measures, empowering households and businesses to make informed choices on things like demand flexibility, purchasing an electric car and switching to low-carbon heating.’
One particular milestone highlighted is the 6th carbon budget, 2033–2037, the first carbon budget set after the Climate Change Act was amended to the net zero targets. It sets an 80% reduction of greenhouse gases. In the webinar, interim Insights Manager John Morris called it a key benchmark and a ‘really tough one’ for its pathways to hit.
The report identifies four critical enablers of the energy transition. First is widespread adoption of energy efficiency measures, to manage demand growth and to reduce energy costs for consumers. Second is a growth in demand flexibility as well as continuing supply side flex. Third is delivering infrastructure for clean electricity, bio energy, hydrogen and carbon transportation and storage. Fourth, encouraging homes and businesses to switch to low-carbon energy sources.
Further information and data is available via Future Energy Scenarios (FES) | National Energy System Operator.
