Nigeria’s population of 229.5 million makes it the most populous country in Africa. Its $188.3bn GDP ranks as the fourth-largest in Africa, after South Africa, Egypt and Algeria. However, combining those two statistics paints a different picture; its per-capita GDP is one of the continent’s lowest, at $807.   

Nigeria’s energy sector is heavily dominated by oil and gas… and not only. In 2022, that sector accounted for about 10% of the nation’s entire economy. This dependence creates a challenge. Economically, it opens the country to the volatility of global oil prices, where fluctuations can have impacts on revenue streams and overall economic stability.  

According to the Energy Institute’s latest Statistical Review of World Energy, Nigerian oil production has fallen over the past decade, from 2.27mn to 1.64mn b/d. Over the same period, natural gas production has expanded. It grew from 40bn m³ in 2014 to a high of 52.4bn m³ in 2021, before dropping to 46.8bn m³ in 2024. However, during the period LNG exports fell. They grew from 26.1bn m³ in 2014 to a peak of 28.8bn m³ in 2019, before dropping to 18.4bn m³ in 2024.     

Methane emissions have dropped during that time, from 72.88mn tCO₂e to 52.47mn tCO₂e in 2023. In 2014, flaring contributed 16.7mn tCO₂e emissions, decreasing to 13.8 units in 2024, according to the Statistical Review of World Energy.  

Transport 

Some 31.9% of Nigeria’s total emissions were produced by transport, and it has been predicted that between 2010 and 2035 fuel consumption within this sector will have risen by 680%. The forecast rise in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is fuelled by increasing wealth, population and economic activity. Over the past decade, oil consumption in Western Africa has grown by 3.3% from 7.37mn to 10.17mn b/d, according to the Statistical Review.   

In 2023, the Nigerian government removed subsidies on fuel, and prices rose as a result. The effect was visible in Western African oil consumption figures, which dropped from 10.31mn to 9.85mn b/d from 2022–2023, reports the Statistical Review. And the move has proven controversial among the public. According to the Minister of Information and National Orientation, Mohammed Idris, only 15% of electricity consumers benefit from 40% of the subsidy, which is disproportionate. The withdrawal from the subsidy was supposed to allow for over ₦1tn ($650mn) to be reinvested in improving power supply across the country.  

The NDC 

Nigeria’s plan to combat climate change has been documented in its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement, and a net zero target by 2060. That calls for Nigeria to reduce GHG emissions by 50% by 2050, and reach net zero in 2060. The NDC outlines an aim to reduce GHG emissions unconditionally by 20% and conditionally on international support by 47% by 2030 compared to business as usual.   

A key measure in the NDC is generating 30% of electricity from renewable sources (see also Box). Other goals included ending gas flaring, elimination of diesel and gasoline generators for electricity, and buying 100,000 buses, all by 2030. Fulfilling these targets not only would help the environment but also improve transport, create green jobs and improve the health of the population with better air quality.  

Achieving these goals, however, requires navigating significant challenges. Economically, the estimated investment needed is substantial, around $177bn, according to Climate Watch.  

The electricity sector alone requires an estimated $122.71bn in investment. Mobilising such significant funds requires a combination of public financing, private sector investment and international support which needs to be pushed by the government. Nigeria is also seeking debt-for-climate swaps to help finance the transition.   

Social and political factors also play a role. The active participation of local communities, the private sector and civil society is vital for the success of Nigeria’s energy transformation.  

Agriculture and forestry, which contribute significantly to the GDP at 26%, also require substantial changes. Deforestation, the uncontrolled use of fertilisers and poor livestock management contribute to GHG emissions. Implementing sustainable farming practices, expanding afforestation programmes and improving forest management are crucial. The long-term vision for Nigeria also includes adaptation measures like developing irrigation systems and adjusting agricultural practices.  

Strengthening climate laws and integrating the long-term vision for low-emission development into national economic planning will also support this work.   

The Katsina wind farm project 

Nigeria’s drive towards achieving its net zero emissions target has been slowed by a persistent failure of government-led projects. One being the Katsina wind farm.   

In 2005, the 10 MW capacity project of 37 turbines was initiated by the Katsina state government to provide a reliable source of clean energy to boost the national grid and reduce Nigeria’s reliance on fossil fuels. The project was contracted to be completed in 24 months. The federal government took over in 2007 and then formally awarded the contract to French company Messrs Vergnet for $24.9mn plus ₦494mn ($323,000) in 2010, to commission by 2012. The project then missed launch dates in 2014, March 2018, December 2018 and October 2019. In total, the project has consumed over ₦4.4bn ($2.87mn), including a ₦904.5mn allocation from the 2017 national budget under the Federal Ministry of Power, Works and Housing, yet it is still not operational, with just over half (16) of the turbines erected.   

Multiple setbacks have dogged the project. In 2012, the project’s lead engineer Collomp Francis was kidnapped. Vandalism and damage from vermin have also increased costs. The pattern of failed projects raises serious concerns about Nigeria’s ability to achieve its net zero goals.   

However, in May the federal government of Nigeria began a new concession process for the wind farm to Katsina state government, which has plans to integrate solar power at the site. Genesis Energy has signed a $500mn memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the Katsina state government to develop a range of energy infrastructure projects.

• Further reading: ‘Africa’s challenging energy transition journey’. Africa’s energy transition is focused on three key factors – the so-called Triple A’s – affordable energy, availability and accessibility. West Africa-based experts speaking at International Energy Week examined the opportunities and challenges for energy producers, investors and policymakers in sub-Saharan Africa. New Energy World Features Editor Brian Davis reports. 
• Find out how Africa is boosting indigenous participation in oil and gas ventures.