EU gas decline accelerates

Ember’s analysis of EU member states’ national plans predicts that EU gas demand is set to fall from 326bn m³ in 2023 to 302bn m³ in 2030, a 7% drop. This extends a trend already in progress by which gas demand dropped 19% between 2021 and 2023, from 404bn m³ to 326bn m³.

According to Ember, this gas decline stands in contrast to recent proposals to increase LNG import capacity, which could rise by 54% by 2030. Given the planned gas decline by that date, this additional capacity would create a significant oversupply, so new investments risk becoming stranded assets in the near future.  

‘National targets send a strong signal: the EU is ditching fossil gas for good. This gas decline is already in progress, and 2030 targets show another strong fall to come,’ notes Tomos Harrison, an Ember analyst.  

The report reviews data from EU member states’ National Energy and Climate Plans to provide an outlook of gas demand and other energy sector indicators through 2030. As of May, the most recent submission cycle for national targets has now effectively drawn to a close.  

Alongside the drop in expected gas demand, national targets show renewables continue to grow. Ember analysis reveals that member states intend to double their total wind and solar capacity over the next five years, putting renewables on track to generate 66% of all EU electricity by 2030.  

Also, the share of electricity in the EU’s final energy demand is rising. The electrification rate is expected to increase from 23% today to 30% in 2030. It aligns with the expanding use of electric technologies – for instance in heating, where heat pumps are gaining popularity replacing fossil-consuming appliances. This signals that even beyond the power sector, EU countries plan to meet future energy needs with more electricity and less gas, the report notes.  

Centrica and Equinor agree new deal  

In a move highlighting the diverse approaches within Europe, Centrica and Equinor have announced an agreement worth over £20bn to deliver gas to the UK. The deal will see Centrica take delivery of 5bn m³/y to 2035.

In 2024, the UK imported almost two-thirds (66.2%) of its gas demand, with 50.2% of the total imports coming from Norway. This is an increase from the UK importing around a third of its gas requirements from Norway in 2022.

The contract also allows for natural gas sales to be replaced with hydrogen in the future.

New data resource tracks global LNG 

Even as much of Europe moves to reduce fossil gas reliance, global supply trends are heading in the opposite direction. After a period of crisis, tight supply conditions and heightened price volatility, the global natural gas market is expected to transition to a period of abundant supply in the coming years – largely due to an increase in global capacity to produce LNG, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has found.

Its new Global LNG Capacity Tracker, which makes LNG data publicly available for the first time, shows that the world currently has about 670bn m³/y of LNG liquefaction capacity.  

According to the Tracker, between 2025 and 2030, a total of nearly 290bn m³/y of new LNG export capacity is expected to come online from projects that have already reached a final investment decision and are under construction – although the pace and scale of this expansion of supply capacity remains uncertain and may shift over time. This capacity increase is said to have ‘significant implications for global gas markets’.