Findings of the report, published in Carbon Brief, show that China’s emissions were down 1.6% year-on-year in 1Q2025 and by 1% in the latest 12 months.

Electricity supply from new wind, solar and nuclear capacity was enough to cut coal-fired power output even as demand surged, whereas previous falls were due to weak growth.

The analysis, based on official figures and commercial data, shows that China’s CO₂ emissions have now been stable, or falling, for more than a year.

However, they remain only 1% below the latest peak, implying that any short-term jump could cause China’s CO₂ emissions to rise to a new record.

The report also found that growth in clean power generation has now overtaken the current and long-term average growth in electricity demand, pushing down fossil fuel use.  

Power-sector emissions fell 2% year-on-year in the 12 months to March 2025. If this pattern is sustained, then it would herald a peak and sustained decline in China’s power-sector emissions.

It also found that the trade ‘war’ initiated by US President Donald Trump has prompted renewed efforts to shift China’s economy towards domestic consumption, rather than exports. A new pricing policy for renewables has caused a rush to install before it takes effect.  

The report says that there is a growing gap that would need to be bridged if China is to meet the 2030 emissions targets it pledged under the Paris Agreement.

If sustained, the drop in power-sector CO₂ emissions could presage the sort of structural decline in emissions anticipated in previous analysis for Carbon Brief.

And the report predicts that is the likely trend at least until the end of the year. However, the outlook beyond that depends strongly on the clean energy and emissions targets set in China’s next five-year plan, due to be published next year, as well as the economic policy response to the Trump administration’s hostile trade policy.

Powering China’s new era of green electrification

In China’s energy transition, breakthroughs in emerging technologies may have a transformative effect, a new report by Ember claims.  

China’s ‘more renewables, more coal’ era is ending. Record-breaking solar (278 GW) and wind (79.8 GW) additions in 2024 propelled total capacity to over 1,400 GW – six years ahead of its 2030 target – enabling clean electricity to meet more than 80% of surging demand. If the current trends continue, clean electricity will fully satisfy annual demand growth before 2030, locking in coal’s irreversible decline.

Ember notes that a deeper transition now hinges on technology innovations beyond wind and solar, including advanced heating systems to electrify heavy industry, AI-powered smart grids to balance supply and demand, long-duration energy storage to stabilise renewable, and carbon removal technologies to offset residual emissions.

While the ‘new three’ sectors – solar, batteries and EVs – have become key drivers of GDP growth, achieving double-digit expansion last year, China only narrowly met its GDP target. According to Ember, the challenges now confronting these sectors – including excessive competition and demand saturation – signal that their peak growth phase may be passing. So, the baton must be passed to new technology to sustain China’s green development momentum.

The report concludes that by reinforcing the ‘growing by greening’ dynamic – where deeper transition drives economic restructuring towards high-quality growth – China can foster strong policy commitment, transforming what could be seen as complex energy system challenges into catalysts for innovation – rather than excuses for delayed action.