After Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the European Union acted to restrict imports of Russian gas through the REPowerEU Plan and via sanctions, among other measures (more details are below).

However, in 2024 the EU saw a rebound in Russian gas imports, reports the Commission. LNG imports grew by 12% compared to 2023, from 18bn m³ to 20bn m³, and pipeline by 26% from 25bn m³ to 32bn m³. Even after the end of Russian gas transit through Ukraine in 2025, Russian gas still represents around 13% of the EU’s overall gas imports, it adds. Currently, around two thirds of Russian gas imports are supplied based on long-term contracts, with EU destination, while around one third is provided on spot (short-term) basis. Remaining volumes are not expected to be eliminated without further European action given the absence of commercial incentives and ongoing long-term contracts, says the EC. 

Calling the EU’s overdependency on Russian energy imports a security threat, it says more coordinated actions are therefore needed.  

In response, the EC’s new REPowerEU Roadmap aims to ‘end the bloc’s dependency on Russian energy by stopping the import of Russian gas and oil and phasing out Russian nuclear energy, while ensuring stable energy supplies and prices across the EU’.  

EC President Ursula von der Leyen said: ‘The war in Ukraine has brutally exposed the risks of blackmail, economic coercion and price shocks. With REPowerEU, we have diversified our energy supply and drastically reduced Europe’s former dependency on Russian fossil fuels. It is now time for Europe to completely cut off its energy ties with an unreliable supplier. And energy that comes to our continent should not pay for a war of aggression against Ukraine.’

The Roadmap is to be followed by legislative proposals by the Commission next month.

The EC will ask member states to prepare national plans by the end of this year, setting out how they will contribute to phasing out imports of Russian gas, nuclear energy and oil. All the measures will be accompanied by ‘continuous efforts to accelerate our energy transition and diversify energy supplies, including via the aggregation of gas demand and a better use of infrastructure, to discard risks to the security of supply and market stability,’ adds the EC.

As regards gas, the upcoming proposals will ‘improve the transparency, monitoring and traceability of Russian gas across the EU markets', it continues. ‘Crucially, new contracts with suppliers of Russian gas (pipeline and LNG) will be prevented, and existing spot contracts will be stopped by the end of 2025. This measure will ensure that already by the end of this year, the EU will have slashed by one third remaining supplies of Russian gas. The Commission will further propose to stop all remaining imports of Russian gas by the end of 2027.’

According to the Commission, global LNG supplies are forecast to grow rapidly as of 2025, while gas demand will decrease. With the full implementation of the energy transition framework and the Action Plan for Affordable Energy, the EU is expected to replace up to 100bn m³ of natural gas by 2030, which means a decrease in demand by 40–50bn m³ by 2027. At the same time, LNG capacities are expected to increase by around 200bn m³ by 2028, which is five times more than current EU imports of Russian gas.

With regards to nuclear, the proposals coming next month will include measures on Russian imports of enriched uranium, as well as restrictions on new supply contracts co-signed by the Euratom Supply Agency (ESA) for uranium, enriched uranium and other nuclear materials deriving from Russia. A European Radioisotopes Valley Initiative is also envisaged to secure EU supply of medical radioisotopes through increased own production.

As noted, the Roadmap aims to build on the EU’s REPowerEU Plan, introduced in May 2022 in response to Russia’s incursion into Ukraine. Aimed to wean the EU off Russian energy while accelerating the rollout of renewable energy and improving energy savings and energy efficiency, measures taken so far have reduced the volumes of imported Russian gas from 150bn m³ in 2021 to 52bn m³ in 2024 – with the share of Russian gas imports dropping from 45% to 19%, reports the EC. All imports of Russian coal have been banned by sanctions, while oil imports have shrunk from 27% at the beginning of 2022 to 3% now. In nuclear, European member states that are still using Russian-designed VVER reactors have made progress in replacing Russian nuclear fuel with fuel from other producers, adds the EC.

Mixed reactions

The Roadmap is likely to be welcomed by many in the energy sector. Earlier this year, European trade association Eurelectric, for example, called for a new approach to energy security based on clean electrification to reduce fuel import dependence, reduce exposure to commodities price shocks and boost crisis resilience.  

It noted: ‘The EU’s current energy security strategy was adopted in 2014, at a time when countries relied heavily on Russian imports and renewables made up only a small fraction of the overall mix. Today, this picture has fundamentally changed. Energy imports are expected to decrease from 60% of EU energy supply in 2022 to 13% by 2050, thanks to transport and heating electrification. Renewables are set to generate 69% of total power by 2030 and Russian oil and gas will be gradually phased out. These developments call for an integrated power-led security approach.’

Leonhard Birnbaum, Eurelectric’s President and E.ON’s CEO, said in February: ‘The recent year has shown us that business-as-usual in Europe is no longer an option. With the threats faced by our sector, security of supply is becoming an urgent priority that policymakers and regulators must acknowledge.’

Indeed, Eurelectric reiterated the need for a new approach just last month. While heralding a new record for solar power generation in Europe, it also emphasised the need for ‘a swift implementation of the electricity market reform to better incentivise flexibility, ensure long-term price stability and wean Europe’s energy system off high-risk dependencies’.

The topic came up at the Summit of the Future of Energy Security, organised by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and hosted by the UK government in London on 24–25 April 2025. At the event, Marc Ferracci, French Minister for Industry and Energy, said that energy is essential to European citizens’ daily lives, their economy and their sovereignty.  

He added: ‘Dependence of energy imports is Europe’s greatest vulnerability, and in terms of competitiveness, one of our greatest challenges. What we see is that energy supply is used as a weapon. It was very clear in the Russian aggression, in deliberate destruction of gas [infrastructure], and in growing trade tensions on energy or technologies.'

‘Europe can’t ignore this, and can’t use the old rules. We need a European doctrine for the 21st century that addresses first fossil fuels. As long as we remain dependent on them, there will be no energy security for Europe.’  

However, the EC announcement elicited some negative reactions. Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico, for example, was reported in Euronews to have said that the plan to ban new gas contracts with Russia by the end of this year and phase out existing ones still in use in the EU by the end of 2027 was ‘absolutely unacceptable’ for his country and his government was ready to veto it. He said the move would be harmful for Slovakia and the entire EU, because the price of gas will increase as a result. Slovakia has a gas delivery agreement with Russia that expires in 2034. Fico is reported to have said that he would seek compensation for damages if the EC plan proceeds. He also rejected the proposal to halt imports of oil and nuclear fuel from Russia to the European Union.

Euronews also reported that Hungary and Slovakia, whose leaders are considered to be Putin’s closest allies in Europe and have blocked EU military assistance to Ukraine, had also criticised the Roadmap, saying it would imperil the EU’s competitiveness.

Under the Roadmap, the EC will also put forward new actions to address Russia’s ‘shadow fleet’ transporting oil. In related news, last week the UK sanctioned a number of (‘up to 100’) oil tankers said to form a core part of Putin’s shadow fleet operation. The fleet carries Russian crude oil exports that are officially banned by 2022 sanctions. According to the UK government, the vessels are responsible for carrying more than $24bn worth of cargo since the start of 2024.  

The government also said: ‘The shadow fleet operation, masterminded by Putin’s cronies, is not just bankrolling the Kremlin’s illegal war in Ukraine – the fleet’s languishing vessels are known to be damaging critical national infrastructure through reckless seafaring in Europe.’