Signing of the engineering development agreement (EDA) between the Polish and US companies marks the next step in advancing the three-unit AP1000 project in Choczewo, Pomeranian Voivodeship (northern Poland), and was witnessed by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and US Energy Secretary Chris Wright.

This initiative originally started during the first Trump Administration and could accommodate a total of six AP-1000s across two sites, according to the US Department of Energy.  

The EDA sets the framework for critical preparatory efforts, including site development, regulatory documentation and geological studies. The EDA will remain in effect until the execution of the engineering, procurement and construction agreement, targeted for the end of 2025. Actual construction is expected to begin in 2026.  

Uranium resources exist but investments needed  

The good news first: sufficient uranium resources exist to support both the continued use of nuclear power and its significant growth through 2050 and beyond, a new study by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency has found. But the bad news is that timely investments in new exploration, mining operations and processing techniques will be essential to ensure that uranium becomes available to the market when needed.

The report indicates that global identified recoverable uranium resources amounted to 7,934,500 tonnes as of 1 January 2023. These represent all reasonably assured and inferred uranium resources that could be recovered at market prices ranging from $40–260/kg of uranium (equivalent to $15–100/lb U3O8; also known as 'yellowcake' U3O8 is a partly-refined but unenriched intermediate stage of uranium).  

Compared to the total reported in 2022, this represents an increase of less than 0.5%. Additions to the uranium resource base could however arise from undiscovered or unconventional sources, driven by the sharp rise in uranium spot prices since mid-2021 as well as the commitment first announced during COP28 and now signed by 31 countries to triple their nuclear energy capacity by 2050.

Worldwide domestic exploration and mine development expenditures have increased dramatically after a period of decline due to poor market conditions and the COVID-19 pandemic. Annual expenditures reached $800mn in 2022. Preliminary data for 2023 suggest a further increase to $840mn. Production, meanwhile, increased 4% between 2020 and 2022, with the increase likely to continue in coming years.

According to the report, the uranium resource base is sufficient to meet the needs of a high-growth nuclear capacity through 2050 and beyond. However, this will require essential investments in new exploration, improved processing techniques and new production centres to replenish reserves.

Developing new production centres is anticipated to face significant lead times due to today’s risk-averse investment climate, and complex and lengthy regulatory processes in many uranium mining jurisdictions. Geopolitical challenges and technical difficulties in developing new mines and milling facilities may further compound the situation. The report calls for efforts to begin immediately to ensure adequate uranium supplies are available in the medium term.

The journey from uranium-rich rock to complete fuel rods is a long one, and includes conversion, enrichment and fuel fabrication stages. In April, the Chief Commercial Officer of enrichment company URENCO, which is part-owned by the UK, Netherlands and Germany, said that the organisation is developing new production capacity in the UK, Netherlands, Germany and in the US.