Writing in the foreword to a new report, The Climate Paradox: Why We Need to Reset Action on Climate Change, from the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change (TBI), the former Labour Prime Minister warned against the ‘alarmist’ tone of the debate on climate change, which he said is ‘riven with irrationality’.  

While noting that ‘most people accept that climate change is a reality caused by human activity’, Blair says that people in both developed and developing countries are increasingly disillusioned with current climate strategies and are ‘turning away from the politics of the issue because they believe the proposed solutions are not founded on good policy’.

The TBI report suggests that global climate policy is facing a critical inflection point. Despite increasing awareness and worsening climate impacts, political momentum to tackle emissions is weakening, it warns. For the energy industry, this shift marks a potential reset in how climate objectives are pursued, with calls to prioritise delivery, innovation and international pragmatism.

2023 was the hottest year on record and saw severe weather events worldwide. Yet at the same time, public confidence in climate policy is waning, suggests the report. It says net zero strategies, once framed as engines of green economic growth, are increasingly viewed as expensive, politically contentious and insufficient. In some advanced economies, promised green jobs have not materialised at scale, while energy-intensive sectors report rising costs and reduced competitiveness relative to countries such as China.

In this environment, some governments are retreating from ambitious climate targets, and private-sector commitments are being rolled back, says the TBI. This has contributed to a growing climate paradox: public concern about the climate crisis is higher than ever, but policy ambition is in decline.

The solution, according to the TBI, is not to abandon net zero goals but to reframe the approach. The focus must shift from idealism to implementation, delivering tangible outcomes through disruptive technologies, smarter policy design and targeted global cooperation.

Key report recommendations include the rapid deployment of carbon capture technology and scaling of nature-based solutions; greater use of artificial intelligence to optimise energy systems, improve efficiency, and reduce costs across grids and supply chains; and the integration of small modular nuclear reactors into nation’s energy policies.

The report also calls for a greater focus on climate change adaptation measures, from resilient urban infrastructure to flood defences and climate-ready energy systems.

It also critiques the pace of current multilateral climate mechanisms, urging more agile, plurilateral agreements, particularly involving key emitters such as China and India. Finance, including climate-risk pricing, green bonds and philanthropy, must also be channelled more effectively to de-risk innovation and scale impactful technologies, it suggests.

Without a reset in both strategy and climate politics, the report warns that the world risks missing its climate goals.

Strong reactions

Blair’s comments were quickly seized upon by opposition parties as an attack on Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s plan to achieve net zero carbon emissions in the UK by 2050. Both the Conservatives and Reform UK argue that the UK’s net zero by 2050 target is unachievable and damaging to the country’s economy. However, the BBC reported that Downing Street said it would not be changing course, with Labour ministers insisting the drive to net zero would not involve any financial sacrifices and have minimal impact on people’s lives.

Meanwhile, Nicholas Stern, author of the Stern Review on Climate Change (commissioned by the Labour government in 2006) and Chair of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics and Political Science, called the report ‘muddled and misleading’. He said: ‘There is far more progress being made around the world to decarbonise the global economy than it suggests. For instance, China is the world’s leading producer and domestic deployer of renewables and electric vehicles. Its power generating capacity from renewables has now exceeded that of fossil fuels and its emissions are likely to peak in the next two years.’

Stern continued: ‘The UK’s leadership on climate change, particularly the elimination of coal from its power sector, is providing an influential example to other countries. So, too, its climate change legislation and its Climate Change Committee. If the UK wobbles on its route to net zero, other countries may become less committed. The UK matters.’  

He added: ‘The report downplays the science in its absence of a sense of urgency and the lack of appreciation of the need for the world to achieve net zero as soon as possible, in order to manage the growth in climate change impacts that are already hurting households and businesses across the world and in the UK. Delay is dangerous.’