Global coal construction slows down

Major cuts (of 98% or more) have been made by some of the world’s biggest coal users, including Turkey, Vietnam and Japan. In total, some 35 nations eliminated coal from their energy plans entirely over the last decade, among them South Korea and Germany.

Nevertheless, coal-fired electricity generation has increased since 2015 as more power plants have come online. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global coal use has rebounded after plummeting at the height of the pandemic and is estimated to have risen to an estimated 8.77bn tonnes in 2024, a record. However, the IEA claims that demand is set to stay close to this level through 2027. In China – which consumes 30% more coal than the rest of the world put together – coal consumption is expected to level off, due to the massive expansion of renewables alongside strong growth in electricity demand.

Global Energy Monitor (GEM) notes a ‘dramatic drop’ in proposals for future coal plants – in the ‘pre-construction’ phase in 2024. The number of countries still planning to build coal-fired plants has roughly halved to just 33, with proposed capacity dropping by around two-thirds.

China and India, the world’s largest coal consumers, have also reduced their planned coal capacity by more than 60% over the same timeframe, from a total of 801 GW to 298 GW, says GEM. However, both countries still have many coal projects in the pipeline, making up 92% of newly proposed coal capacity in 2024. Indeed, the coal power capacity added in 2024 hit the lowest level in two decades, well below the annual average.

According to GEM’s annual survey, global coal power additions dropped to their lowest level in 20 years, although the world’s global coal fleet continued to grow. Its Global Coal Plant Tracker shows that 44.1 GW of coal power capacity was commissioned while 25.2 GW was retired in 2024, resulting in a net increase of 18.8 GW. Notably, the capacity commissioned was nearly 30 GW below the annual average for 2002 to 2024 (72 GW) – a sign of the continued slowdown in global coal construction.

China commissioned 30.5 GW of coal power capacity in 2024 – 70% of the global total – and saw 94.5 GW in new construction starts, the highest in nearly a decade.

Outside China, coal power capacity decreased 9.2 GW. In the EU 27, retirements quadrupled year-on-year, reaching 11 GW. And the UK shut down its last coal plant, becoming the sixth country to complete a coal phaseout since 2015.

US coal production continues to decline – but Trump commits to renewed coal focus  

Meanwhile, US coal production has continued to decline over the past two decades, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA)’s Annual Coal Report published in early April. In 2023 the US produced 578mn short tonnes of coal, half the mount produced in 2008 when US coal production peaked.

‘Rising mining costs, increasingly stringent environmental regulations and competition from other sources of electric power generation – like renewables – have contributed to domestic coal production declines,’ says the EIA.

Nevertheless, the US Department of the Interior has re-affirmed its commitment to the Trump administration’s goal of ‘American Energy Dominance’ with a renewed focus on coal. Through an Executive Order, President Donald Trump will implement a series of bold (and controversial) policy moves and regulatory reforms to position coal ‘as a cornerstone of the nation’s strategy’ by ensuring that federally managed lands remain open and accessible for ‘responsible energy management’.

‘The Golden Age is here, and we are starting to “Mine, Baby, Mine” for clean American coal,’ commented Department of the Interior Secretary Doug Burgum. He said that the Department is unlocking America’s full potential in energy dominance and economic development.

E3G concern about potential breach of 1.5°C goal

Finally, independent climate change think tank E3G notes with alarm that global coal power continues to grow. It warns that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions need to be reduced by 60% by 2035 to preserve the 1.5°C goals of the Paris Agreement. It says: ‘Countries must use this critical year to accelerate the global exit from coal.’

The OECD says it has made progress in phasing out existing plants, including the closure of the last UK coal plant. However, E3G notes: ‘The key challenge now is Asia’s much younger coal fleet’.

To address the situation, E3G recommends three courses of action: ‘First, coal retirement mechanisms (CRMs) are novel tools being designed to tackle this problem. Often blending public with private finance, they aim to cover the cost to countries and companies of replacing coal power with clean [power]. But they have been slow to deliver results. This year, CRM pilots must show tangible results, to prove the concept is viable. Second, CRMs need to be more deeply integrated into wider energy system planning system that prioritises just transitions. And third, countries must find new avenues to scale up coal retirement – for example, through public finance.’