According to climate change think tank E3G, the draft SEP strategy ‘fails to make progress on Japan’s existing 2030 target for renewables set out in the sixth plan in 2021’ and falls far below the level of the global commitment to triple renewable capacity by 2030. Instead, it sets a new goal for renewable energy to constitute 40–50% of Japan’s electricity supply by 2040, which would translate to only a 2–14% increase in renewables’ share in the 2030s based on the current goal of 36–38% renewables share in 2030, according to E3G’s analysis.

‘This extremely low ambition is in stark contrast with power mix simulations showing that renewables could account for 60–80% of the energy mix in 2040,’ comments the think tank. ‘The analytic foundation was in place to support stronger expansion of renewables, but the bureaucracy and political leadership chose not to utilise this,’ it adds.

Although Japan committed with the G7 last year to phase out unabated coal-fired power by 2035, the draft SEP makes no mention of phasing out coal plants beyond the most inefficient ones. ‘This is despite several studies, even from traditionally conservative domestic research organisations, reinforcing the confidence in Japan’s ability to transition away from coal between 2035 to 2040 at the latest,’ notes E3G. ‘Instead, the strategy focuses on mostly the same technological approaches as in previous strategies, which so far have failed to cut Japan’s emissions from coal power.’

Furthermore, the draft SEP is ‘very vague on fossil fuels’, reports the think tank, setting an outlook of 30–40% thermal generation in the power mix without specifying targets for each fuel. ‘This approach leaves huge unanswered questions about the investment outlook and emission intensity of Japan’s future energy mix’, says E3G. It also notes that continued dependency on LNG and coal, along with unproven emission-cutting technologies, would cause Japan to miss its G7 commitment to decarbonise its power sector by 2035.

The seventh SEP is expected to be finalised within the next few months following a public feedback process. E3G believes major changes are ‘unlikely’, given the current political leadership’s reluctance to significantly alter the country’s energy strategy. This can also be seen in the target for nuclear power remaining virtually unchanged at 20%, it notes.  

The implications of Japan’s ‘underwhelming’ energy policies are significant, according to E3G. ‘The country’s leadership is acutely needed to encourage more ambition internationally on the way to COP30 in Belem,’ it says. Japan’s draft Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) aims for a 60% emissions reduction by 2035 from 2013 levels (translating to 51% from 2019). ‘This has also been met with disappointment, as climate analysts and advocacy groups suggest Japan should aim for a 75–81% reduction,’ states E3G.  

View on the home front

Meanwhile, Japan’s own Renewable Energy Institute (REI) has highlighted its concerns over self-sufficiency, cost and uncertainty in its analysis of the draft seventh SEP.

It notes that while Japan’s energy self-sufficiency rate is projected to rise to 30–40% by 2040 under the draft plan, the REI scenario suggests a higher rate of 75% is required for energy security amid geopolitical risks. It also notes that the draft plan’s reliance on just 40–50% renewables by 2040 is ‘low by international standards’, contrasting with Europe, which has already achieved this target, and China’s projected 50% share in its power supply mix by 2028.

According to REI, the draft SEP underestimates the integration costs of solar power and overestimates the future costs of solar and wind technologies. It also notes that there is uncertainty over the feasibility of currently high-cost and non-proven hydrogen, ammonia-fired and carbon capture-equipped power plant technologies over more mature renewable options.

Instead, REI advocates for a strategic pivot towards domestic renewables, aligning with global decarbonisation efforts and ensuring lower costs and greater self-sufficiency.  

Shortfall in renewable target

It related news, analysis published by Cornwall Insight in December 2024, prior to the draft seventh SEP’s publication, indicates that Japan is set to miss its ambitious renewable energy targets by 2030. It suggests that, by 2030, the country is likely to miss its 18 GW capacity goal for onshore wind by 7 GW, its 10 GW target for offshore wind by 6 GW, and its 108 GW ambition for solar PV by 15 GW. This shortfall could leave non-carbon sources supplying just 41% of Japan’s energy mix by 2030, well below the government’s ambition of 59% [comprising 36–38% renewables share and 20–22% nuclear] laid out in the sixth SEP, it says.