Info!
UPDATED 1 Sept: The EI library in London is temporarily closed to the public, as a precautionary measure in light of the ongoing COVID-19 situation. The Knowledge Service will still be answering email queries via email , or via live chats during working hours (09:15-17:00 GMT). Our e-library is always open for members here: eLibrary , for full-text access to over 200 e-books and millions of articles. Thank you for your patience.
New Energy World magazine logo
New Energy World magazine logo
ISSN 2753-7757 (Online)

Environmental risks dominate long-term forecast of World Economic Forum risk report

22/1/2025

News

Close of up of World Economic Forum sign Photo: Adobe Stock/Sophie Animes
The latest World Economic Forum Global Risks Report makes grim reading, with threat of escalating war, increasing trade barriers and environmental concerns

Photo: Adobe Stock/Sophie Animes

An alarming scenario of growing risk of armed conflict in a fractured world of geopolitical, environmental and technological challenge, is described in the latest World Economic Forum (WEF) Global Risks Report prior to the influential Davos conference in Switzerland (20–24 January 2025). Brian Davis reports.

In a survey of 900 leading risk managers, drawn from across academia, business, government and international organisations, the report found nearly a quarter (23%) predict escalation of existing wars, reflecting current geopolitical tensions and global fragmentation.

 

Notably, environmental risks dominate the 10-year (long-term) risk ranking, led by extreme weather events, biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse. In the short-term (over the next two years), extreme weather events are seen as the biggest risk by 14% of respondents.

 

Some 8% identified geo-economic confrontation, including steeper trade barriers – given the threats of major new tariffs by new US President Donald Trump and concerns about relations with China – as the biggest challenge to the economy. The report recognises that: ‘A worldwide escalation of broad tariff-based protectionism could lead to global trade declining.’

 

Pollution is also perceived as a growing challenge, ranking tenth of top 10 risks in the decade ahead, given the impacts of a wide range of pollutants across air, water and land (see below).

 

At an online press conference, Peter Giger, Group Chief Risk Officer of Zurich Insurance Group, said: ‘With the planet surpassing the 1.5°C warming threshold for the first time, the stakes are sky high. The report’s survey results clearly show that the experts see climate risk as being critical over the long-term… But as recent new headlines show, they also need short-term attention. Already today we face environmental risks from extreme weather to biodiversity loss. Immediate action is critical to mitigate the worst impacts of climate change, and to build resilience.’ Nevertheless, Giger remains optimistic that ‘humankind can find societal and technological solutions to avert the worst’.

 

According to the survey, the long-term landscape is also threated by technological risks related to ‘misinformation and disinformation’ and the potential adverse impacts of AI technologies in the long-term.

 

‘Rising geopolitical tensions and a fracturing of trust are straining the global risk landscape as never before,’ remarked Mirek Dusek, Managing Director at the WEF. ‘In this complex and dynamic context, leaders have a choice: faster collaboration and resilience, or face compounding vulnerabilities. The stakes have never been higher.’

 

Indeed, the report paints a grim picture of the decade ahead, with risk experts far less optimistic about the future world than in the short-term. Nearly two-thirds of respondents anticipate ‘a stormy global landscape’ by 2035, due in particular to intensifying environmental, technological and societal challenges. Over half anticipate instability within two years, reflecting widespread fracturing of international cooperation.

 

Drilling into the report, pollution is seen as one of the critical challenges to tackle. Short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) (commonly called super-pollutants) are noted to have a significant impact on air quality and global warming. They include particulate matter/carbon black, methane, hydrofluorocarbons and tropospheric ozone. These SLCPs are responsible for up to 45% of near-term global warming, says the report.

 

WEF maintains that: ‘Speed is essential for incorporating SLCP reductions into a pollution-conscious green transition.’ Apparently, about one-third of countries worldwide lack legally-mandated standards for outdoor air quality, according to a UNEP report that is quoted.  

 

The WEF calls for strengthening of regulatory frameworks regarding pollution at local, national and international levels, ‘with adaptive policies informed by ongoing scientific research’. The report points to ‘chronic underfunding’ of pollution initiatives, with less than 1% of international development funding expressly committed to targetting outdoor air pollution between 2015 and 2021, according to the Clean Air Fund. WEF suggests there is a need for large-scale integrated, private-public philanthropic collaborative action on funding for pollution prevention at local, national and international scales.

 

As top politicians, bankers and businesspeople meet for talks at WEF’s annual conference, it will be fascinating to see which areas of global instability will result in accelerated action.