Known for his climate scepticism, Trump has consistently dismissed efforts to boost green energy as a ‘scam’. He previously withdrew the US from the Paris Agreement when he first took office as US President in 2017, in a move that shocked the global community. However, the impact was relatively limited as the Treaty’s rules meant the US was not able to withdraw until November 2020, just a few months before he left office. President Joe Biden subsequently rejoined the Agreement as one of his first Presidential orders. But this time around, the US would have to wait only a year before being able to withdraw from the Agreement.

Climate leaders hope the new Trump Administration won’t derail the global energy transition. Former UN Climate Chief Christiana Figueres posted on Instagram: ‘The result from this election will be seen as a major blow to global climate action; but it cannot and will not halt the changes underway to decarbonise the economy and meet the goals of the Paris Agreement.’

This view was echoed by Energy Institute President, Andy Brown, also Vice Chairman of Ørsted, speaking on the BBC R4 Today programme. While agreeing that having the US withdraw from the Paris Climate Accord would be ‘very, very bad’ and that ‘unity, not parochial interests’ were needed, he believed the impact would be ‘more about the pace of change’ as renewables had actually grown 66% under the previous Trump Administration.

However, such ‘unity’ is under threat as evidenced by the low expectations that President Biden’s climate change team can make any impact on the decisions made at the COP29 conference currently under way in Baku, Azerbaijan, since any promises could be reversed when Trump reaches the Oval Office on 20 January 2025. (See also this week’s feature article ‘Can COP29 live up to expectations?’)

Indeed, several important world leaders, including President Biden, have decided not to attend COP29, including China’s leader Xi Jinping, French President Emmanuel Macron, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, European Commission President Ursula van der Leyen and German Chancellor Olaf Schulz. Their absence is attributed to a number of factors, including the continuing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine as well as financial challenges nearer to home.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer did make the journey, however, announcing an increase in the UK’s commitment to an 81% cut in greenhouse gas emissions (compared with 1990 levels) by 2035 as one of the first Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) targets to be unveiled at COP29.

Policy shifts
Throughout his election campaign, Trump has emphasised a ‘drill, baby, drill’ approach to fossil fuels, promising to increase oil and gas production both on and offshore, including opening up currently protected areas of the offshore Arctic wilderness. This focus, and Trump’s repeated dismissal of the wind sector and his threat to cancel such projects ‘on day one’ of his Presidency, led to the share prices of many of the big international wind turbine manufacturers falling sharply as soon as he was announced President-Elect.

However, EI President Andy Brown was more circumspect about the potential implications for the wind sector, in particular his company Ørsted. He said it was important to ‘look past the rhetoric’ and that offshore wind would continue to ‘be part of the [US] energy transition and part of the mix’, noting that ‘the north-east US states have binding commitments for how much renewables they need in their mix’, with New York calling for 70% by 2030, for example.

The US renewables sector has seen significant growth in recent years, with generous tax incentives and investments under Democrat President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law leading to substantial growth in solar, wind and other clean energy sectors. According to the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), renewables jobs have risen 40% under the Biden Administration, while investment in renewables has gone up nearly a third. Meanwhile, Forbes analysis suggests that some two thirds of the jobs created by Biden’s IRA have actually been located in Republican-voting parts of America.

As a result, although Trump has called the IRA ‘too expensive’ and suggested he would rescind any unspent funding on becoming President, many believe rolling back green policies and dismantling the IRA would actually be challenging for his Administration, given the widespread benefits the policy provides across political lines.

‘Governors and representatives in Congress on both sides of the aisle have come to recognise that clean energy is a huge moneymaker and a job creator. President Trump will face a bipartisan wall of opposition if he attempts to rip away clean energy incentives now,’ commented Dan Lashof, US Director, World Resources Institute.

Trump has also repeatedly claimed on the election trail that he will implement a universal 10% import tariff on all foreign-made goods, a targeted 60% import tariff on Chinese goods and a 100% tariff on all imported cars, which could have wide-ranging economic impacts. While aimed at correcting trade imbalances and protecting domestic businesses, there are fears these tariffs could significantly reshape international trade relations and supply chains.