The IEA forecast would be almost three times the increase seen between 2017 and 2023, and roughly equal to the current power capacity of China, the European Union, India and the US combined, says the IEA’s flagship Renewables 2024 report.

China is on course to account for almost 60% of all renewable capacity installed worldwide between now and 2030, making it home to almost half of the world’s total renewable power capacity by the end of this decade, up from a share of one third in 2010. While China is adding the biggest volumes of renewables, India is growing at the fastest rate among major economies.

By the end of this decade, the share of wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) alone in global electricity generation is set to double to 30%, according to the IEA forecast. However, the report emphasises the need for governments to ramp up their efforts to securely integrate these variable renewable sources into power systems.

Recently, rates of curtailment – where renewable electricity generation isn’t put to use – have been increasing substantially, already reaching around 10% in several countries today. To address this, countries should focus on measures such as increasing power system flexibility, says the IEA. Making a concerted push to address policy uncertainties and streamline permitting processes – and to build and modernise 25mn km of electricity grids and reach 1,500 GW of storage capacity by 2030, as highlighted in previous IEA analysis – would enable even larger shares of generation from renewables, it suggests.

Overall, led by the massive growth of renewable electricity, the global share of renewables in final energy consumption is forecast to increase to nearly 20% by 2030, up from 13% in 2023.  

Meanwhile, renewable fuels – the subject of a special chapter in the report – are lagging behind. That weaker performance underscores the need for dedicated policy support to decarbonise sectors that are hard to electrify, according to the IEA. Meeting international climate goals would require not only accelerating the rollout of renewable power, but also significantly speeding up the adoption of sustainable biofuels, biogases, hydrogen and e-fuels, the report notes. Since these fuels remain more expensive than their fossil counterparts, their share in global energy is predicted to remain below 6% in 2030.

The IEA also reports that renewables are being deployed so fast that they are outpacing governments’ own existing targets. Nearly 70 countries that collectively account for 80% of global renewable power capacity are poised to reach or surpass their current renewable ambitions for 2030.  

However, the current projected growth is not fully in line with reaching the goal set by nearly 200 governments at the COP28 climate change conference to triple the world’s renewable capacity this decade. The report forecasts global capacity will reach 2.7 times its 2022 level by 2030.  

But IEA analysis, as reflected in the report’s ‘accelerated case’ forecast, suggests that fully meeting the tripling target is possible if governments take near-term opportunities for action. This includes outlining ‘bold’ plans in the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement due next year, and bolstering international cooperation on bringing down high financing costs in emerging and developing economies, which are restraining renewables’ growth in high-potential regions such as Africa and south-east Asia.

Project case studies

According to the IEA’s Renewables 2024 report, solar PV will account for 80% of the growth in global renewable capacity to 2030 – the result of the construction of new large solar power plants as well as an increase in rooftop solar installations by companies and households.  

An example of the former is the largest solar farm in the Baltics, which recently came onstream. Located in Pärnu County, Estonia, the Kirikmäe solar farm (pictured) spreads over nearly 110 hectares and has a capacity of 77.53 MW, more than twice the capacity of the next largest solar facility in the country.  

Kirikmaë is owned by the Baltic Renewable Energy Platform (BREP), a joint venture set up by Estonian energy company Evecon and global asset management company Mirova.

The commissioning of Kirikmäe follows that of the Imavere and Lohu Mets solar farms just a few days earlier, bringing more than 100 MW of production capacity to the local market within one week and representing about one-tenth of the total solar capacity currently produced in Estonia.

‘The use of solar energy has grown rapidly in Estonia. In 2020, we started with almost no capacity, but now we rank sixth in the European Union in terms of solar panel capacity per capita,’ says Climate Minister Yoko Alender.

Meanwhile, despite ‘ongoing challenges’, IEA reports that the wind sector is ‘poised for a recovery’, with the rate of expansion forecast to double between 2024 and 2030, compared with 2017–2023.

In Australia, the initial 27 wind turbines at the MacIntyre wind farm have been connected to the Queensland grid, adding some 154 MW of capacity. Being developed by ACCIONA Energía, the project is expected to reach its full 923 MW capacity over the next 12 months, making it one of the largest wind farms in the southern hemisphere to date.

The wind farm will comprise 162 Delta4000 turbines, each with a capacity of 5.7 MW. The energy produced will be supplied through power purchase agreements to Queensland’s publicly owned energy generator Stanwell Corporation, and to Queensland’s public electricity company CleanCo. Some of the power generated will also go to Ark Energy, an Australian subsidiary of Korea Zinc and owner of a 30% stake in the project. It is planning to use it to decarbonise sister company Sun Metals Corporation and its refinery in Townsville, supporting Sun Metals’ plans to be the world’s first producer of green zinc.

The MacIntyre wind farm is part of the larger 2 GW MacIntyre Wind Precinct, which also includes the Herries Range wind farm (~1 MW) which is in late-stage development. Once completed, they will nearly double the amount of wind energy generated in Queensland.

The MacIntyre wind farm in Queensland, Australia, will be one of the largest wind farms in the southern hemisphere when it reaches its full 923 MW capacity over the next 12 months 

Photo: ACCIONA Energía