Enduring energy outages and reaching grid capacity are becoming increasingly real prospects – executives from the National Grid Electricity System Operator (ESO) are warning that ‘there will be blackouts in the South East by 2028’ for instance. It is accordingly critical that more responsible grid management is practised to ease pressure on the grid and, in turn, clear the path for the UK’s energy transition.

One area of particular concern, but also of significant opportunity, is the congested system for providing grid connections. With National Grid ESO bound to provide every applicant with a connection once it reaches the end of the queue, it is important that projects which could actually utilise these connections are prioritised.

Currently, however, stalled projects which are never going to come to fruition are causing delays in the ever-growing queue. This is further exacerbated by new projects continuing to join. Controls on this process are lacking; for instance, ‘Letters of Authority’ are not required, and so effectively lifeless projects can remain in the system and delay connections for those with a genuine chance of materialising.

This is not an abstract, bureaucratic problem – we’re seeing this hit our industries on the ground, with Pinewood Studios’ Chairman citing grid connection delays as a key issue in holding back an expansion project predicted to generate £640mn/y for the economy. Furthermore, the fewer connections available, the longer it will take new renewable energy projects to get off the ground and begin generating electricity.

These issues not only create problems and delays for large infrastructure projects but also for much smaller investments such as private wire schemes, which all contribute to the energy transition. So, how could the system be improved?

With National Grid ESO bound to provide every applicant with a connection, once it reaches the end of the queue, it is important that projects which could actually utilise these connections are prioritised.

Why does the UK grid connection system need to change?
The queue for transmission connections is growing rapidly, with some applications now receiving connection dates for 2035 and beyond. Over the last year alone, the queue has increased by 20 GW a month on average. Taking transmission and distribution connections together, the 800+ GW backlog expected by 2025 is four times the installed capacity which National Grid ESO has planned by 2050.

Some progress has been made to tackle this log jam: National Grid ESO connected 3 GW of clean electricity projects to the transmission network in 2023 and the UK has now installed over 16 GW of solar capacity. However, comparing these numbers to the scale of what will be needed by 2035, 2050 and beyond shows that greater action is needed to regulate applications and increase opportunities for viable projects to connect.

What are the current grid proposals?
Working with the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) and Ofgem, National Grid ESO has outlined a First Ready, First Connected’ (TMO4+) approach. This will apply to all new generation and demand connections (as well as significant modification applications) after January 2025. Proposals have also been made to apply similar systems to the existing queue.

TMO4+ is designed to weed out projects unlikely to get off the ground – while feasible projects will be prioritised through its two-fold gated approach. The first gate would provide connection offers based on a coordinated network design connection date, while the second gate would be used to determine queue position for projects within the application window, accelerating eligible projects.

More specific details are expected imminently as the National Grid ESO develops the requisite code modifications ahead of submitting proposals this month – Ofgem is expected to approve these in October. While we wait, the UK Electricity Networks Commissioner’s 2023 report on accelerating electricity transmission offers a potential blueprint for the eventual plans.

What should be the guiding principles for grid connection reforms?
Reform, including the TMO4+ proposals and any further changes introduced further down the line, must tread a fine line between healthy regulation and ensuring the UK remains an attractive market. On the one hand, the application process needs to be robust enough that dead-end projects are thinned out and even, ideally, deterred from applying in the first instance.

On the other hand, reforms should not detract from the UK’s attractiveness as a destination for investment in low-carbon projects. We do not want to go from one extreme to another, replacing a system burdened by too many applications with one struggling to attract enough.

TMO4+ is a welcome step towards reforming the queue, and hopefully the final form devised by National Grid ESO will establish a rigorous system that can make a substantial difference in practice. However, to enact a more deep-rooted solution, the flow of unlikely and overwhelming applications needs to be cut off at source. The most effective way to lower the number of applications is not to rely on thinning out a constantly replenishing queue, but to reduce the number of applications being made in the first place.

This is where stakeholders throughout the business side of the energy industry must step in and ‘do their bit’. Industry developers must help to bring about change, by only securing connections for achievable projects and working to prescribed milestones.

It is essential that all parties, from authorities, to regulators and industry leaders, acknowledge the scale of the problem and commit to playing their part to tackle it. If we really are a nation of polite queuers, let’s work together to improve this system before the situation worsens and realise the significant opportunities for energy generation in the UK.

The views and opinions expressed in this article are strictly those of the author only and are not necessarily given or endorsed by or on behalf of the Energy Institute.

• Further reading: ‘Blueprint to decarbonise the UK’s electricity grid published’. The UK electricity system operator ESO has published a report proposing £58bn of grid investment to move offshore wind power ‘to where it is needed’ and meet the nation’s growing demand for electricity by 2035.
• Find out why Great Britain is going towards a ‘whole system’ network transmission approach to energy operations.