This past spring was the first time that US wind generation exceeded coal-fired generation for two months in a row, says the EIA in its July 2024 Monthly Energy Review. Wind generation first exceeded coal-fired generation in April 2023, but for one month only, and did not do so again until 11 months later.

According to the EIA, US wind installations produced 45.9 TWh of electricity in March 2024, compared with 38.4 TWh from coal-fired power plants. In April 2024, coal-fired generation fell to 37.2 TWh. Wind generation, meanwhile, increased to a record 47.7 TWh. However, it should be noted that wind power generally produces the most electricity in the springtime in the US, and during the first four months of 2024 as a whole, coal-fired generation was 15% higher than wind generation in the country.

The EIA notes that recent electricity generation from coal and wind is very different compared with 20 years ago. In March 2004, coal-fired generation produced 154.3 TWh of electricity, while wind produced 1.3 TWh.

Installed wind power generating capacity has increased substantially in the US over the last 25 years, growing from 2.4 GW in 2000 to 150.1 GW in April 2024. By contrast, a substantial number of coal plants have retired over the past 25 years, with total coal capacity falling from 315.1 GW in 2000 to 177.1 GW by April 2024.

Other sources of electricity generation have also increased during the time that coal-fired generation has declined. Since 2000, electricity from solar power has increased by 99.1 TWh, and generation from natural gas, which is often more price competitive than coal in electricity market dispatch, has increased by 287.6 TWh, according to the EIA.

However, following the record wind capacity additions of more than 14 GW in both 2020 and 2021, the introduction of new US wind facilities has slowed in the last two years, notes the EIA, with operators expecting 7.1 GW of wind capacity to come online in the US in 2024.

On the other hand, some 22.3 GW of US coal-fired electric generating capacity has retired over the past two years, with a further 2.8 GW expected to retire in 2024.

Falling battery storage costs could help halt new coal capacity additions in India

Meanwhile, new analysis from Ember, in collaboration with New Delhi-based The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI), highlights the crucial role of declining BESS project costs to an effective coal phase-down in India’s power sector.  

According to the Energy Institute’s Statistical Review of World Energy, India is currently the world’s second largest consumer of coal, consuming some 21.98 EJ in 2023. China (including Hong Kong) is the largest, consuming 91.94 EJ.

In their new report, Ember and TERI suggest that if BESS costs continue to decline at the current rate of 7% annually, the least-cost pathway for India’s power sector won’t see coal generation plateauing until 2032, while additional coal capacity may still be needed to meet demand during non-solar hours. This is mainly because slow storage growth will hinder sustained renewables growth once India’s solar share in the power mix exceeds 25%.  

However, if BESS costs fall 15% every year on an average, it would enable India to potentially limit its coal capacity to the 14th National Electricity Plan projection of 260 GW by 2032.

‘Accelerated growth in solar and wind, development of pumped hydro projects, and cost-competitive low-carbon technologies like BESS are essential for India to avoid new coal capacity,’ says report co-author Nayeem Khan, Research Associate, TERI.

The report also emphasises on the importance of policy interventions like India’s Viability Gap Funding initiative to facilitate the necessary decline in battery costs. Additionally, strategies for shifting solar generation to non-solar hours and enhancing coal plant flexibility are crucial to maintaining the pace of the transition.