Even worse, the current pace of progress is insufficient to meet any of the 2030 targets for SDG 7 and could leave 660 million people without electricity and 1.8 billion still dependent on polluting fuels and technologies for cooking by 2030. It is predicted that by 2030, the Sub-Saharan Africa region will be home to 85% of the world’s population without electricity. Those lacking access are becoming harder to reach as they live in more remote areas, have lower incomes, and are more heavily concentrated in least-developed countries, many of which are suffering from fragility, conflict and violence, according to Tracking SDG 7: The Energy Progress Report 2024.

Some 18 of the 20 countries with the greatest access deficits are located in Sub-Saharan Africa, according to the report. Nearly a third of unconnected people can be found in just three countries: Nigeria (86 million people), the Democratic Republic of Congo (78 million) and Ethiopia (55 million).

For at least a decade, the number of people worldwide with access to electricity was improving, but this progress was reversed in 2022.

That year, global events combined with regional problems, including the increasing frequency and severity of droughts and floods in Sub-Saharan Africa due to climate change, drove the backsliding, the report’s authors argue. As many national electric utilities across the region bore the cost of keeping energy affordable for users, their debt burdens burgeoned.  

In addition, supply chain disruptions, including for solar modules, also impeded grid extension initiatives. The International Energy Agency estimates that the number of Africans that were delivered electricity access through a grid connection or mini-grid fell by as much as 50% in 2022.

The light of progress   
A decentralised, affordable and clean form of electricity with low operational costs that can be employed at scale is needed.

The modular nature of solar photovoltaics (PV) allows for deployment ranging from small off-grid solar home systems to larger mini-grids and utility-scale plants, making it accessible to both rural and urban areas. This is an important advantage given that eight out of 10 people without electricity reside in rural areas.

Furthermore, solar PV is one of the most cost-competitive electricity sources and solar modules continue to reduce in price year-on-year. According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), the global weighted-average levelised cost of energy for new utility-scale solar PV projects fell 89% from $0.445/kWh in 2010 (710% more expensive than the cheapest fossil fuel-fired option) to $0.049/kWh in 2022 (28% cheaper than the cheapest fossil fuel-fired option). Declines in module prices primarily drove this, although reductions in the balance of plant costs, operations and maintenance costs and the cost of capital have also helped.

The cost of batteries for back-up has also fallen significantly. Between 1991 and 2021, prices for lithium-ion battery cells plummeted by about 97%. Prices fall on average by 19% for every doubling of capacity and the rate of reduction shows no signs of slowing down. From summer 2023 to March 2024, lithium battery cell pricing dropped by approximately 50%.

Fig 1: Battery cell costs, expert forecasts versus actuals, in $/kWh   
Source: Mauler et al (2021) for expert forecasts of 2010–2018, BNEF Lithium Iron Battery Price Survey (2023) for actual and most recent forecasts

Hydropower is the leading renewable source of electricity both worldwide and in Africa. However, a study comparing the costs of building and maintaining hydro dams and solar- and wind-power-generating projects concluded that between 32% and 60% of the proposed hydropower capacity is not cost-optimal. The findings show that in the majority of scenarios, building new hydroelectric facilities is not as cost-effective as building solar and wind facilities.

Wind-powered mini-grids are the only option to challenge solar PV on price. But as Sub-Saharan Africa receives some of the most reliable and abundant sunshine on the planet whereas wind availability varies greatly, solar remains the optimum option in the majority of cases.

The funding conundrum   
Despite their cheapness, funding the purchasing and installation of solar mini-grids for underserved people remains one of the greatest challenges for Sub-Saharan Africa to achieve SDG 7. Attracting sufficient investment is the first hurdle, particularly for small-scale and off-grid projects.

Historically, Africa has only attracted around 2% of global renewable investments. For instance, when global renewable energy investment reached a record-high of $434bn in 2021, only 0.6% of the investment went into Africa. Investment barriers must be overcome and financing for clean energy needs a huge scale-up in Africa. Innovative financing mechanisms, such as public-private partnerships and pay-as-you-go models, can help bridge this chasm.

Fortunately, success stories that show how these obstacles can be surmounted abound.

For example, more than 100 mini-grids have been installed by Nigeria’s Rural Electrification Agency’s (REA) Nigeria Electrification Project (NEP), funded by the World Bank under the Performance Based Grant (PBG). This financing mechanism grants qualified developers to build and operate mini-grids in rural communities. It has successfully attracted private sector investments in mini-grids, leading to 46,661 verified connections to households, micro, small and medium enterprises, and public facilities by August 2023, with another 281,578 connections in progress.

‘While not all customers without access to power are best served by a single technology, for Toto and similar-sized communities which experience unreliable electricity, solar-powered grids offer the most cost-effective solution.’ – AJ Grosenbaugh, Head of Product Management for PowerGen

Likewise, on its mission to reach 100% energy access by 2030, the Kenyan government, in partnership with the Kenya Off-Grid Solar Access Project (KOSAP), is constructing 137 solar mini-grids to electrify 567 public facilities. The project will connect approximately 277,000 households, or 1.5 million people, to electricity for the first time. This project is financed by the World Bank, which approved an International Development Association credit of $150mn to fund the project in 2017.

Both these examples reveal the importance of the role of government. Nigeria needed to set up the PBG to attract private sector investment to be channelled into constructing mini-grids. Likewise, the Kenyan government had to collaborate with the World Bank to access the finance needed to harness its solar resources at scale.

But government is not always behind advances in energy access. In fact, in the absence of reliable utility companies and grids providing electricity, most new solar additions in Sub-Saharan Africa have been driven by the private sector, according to the Africa Solar Industry Association (AFSIA).

For example, despite energy access setbacks in almost 80% of Sub-Saharan jurisdictions in 2022, the sale of solar home systems that deliver electricity to buildings not connected to central grids actually increased significantly. The growth in sales of these systems in 2022 beat pre-pandemic records in West and East Africa, and helped offset the energy access setback trend. As a result, the number of people without access in Nigeria continued to fall during the crisis, bringing the country closer to its dual targets of deriving 30% of its electricity from renewables by 2030 and increasing energy access from 57.7% in 2018 with the aim of reaching 90% by 2030.

However, solar home systems require relatively high upfront costs – which is not an economic possibility for most unconnected people.

The Toto project  
Toto is a small town in Nasarawa State, Nigeria. It once had an existing grid network but the utility company Abuja Electricity Distribution had switched it off 10 years ago due to insufficient power supply, decrepit grid infrastructure and a shortage of smart metering leading to high technical and commercial losses. To begin supplying electricity to the community again, the REA, in collaboration with PowerGen, designed the country’s first interconnected 352 kWp solar-powered mini-grid to provide power in the day. PowerGen also agreed to buy power from Abuja Electricity Distribution to cover six hours of electricity at night. The project won the 2023 AFSIA Mini Grid Project of the Year Award.

AJ Grosenbaugh, Head of Product Management for PowerGen, explains the benefits of solar power. ‘The ease of deployment and operations make them an easy choice for deployment, as the tech-enabled hardware PowerGen deploys allows us to monitor and optimise performance remotely, ensuring quality service even in the most remote locations. The economics of operating these plants are further buoyed by Nigeria’s high level of solar irradiation.’

Toto was a success, connecting 2,000 households, 141 commercial users, 18 production users and 45 public users with reliable, clean and affordable power whilst enabling the utility to generate revenue (with PowerGen as their single credible offtaker). PowerGen also profits from operating and maintaining the mini-grid and new distribution system. Utilising the cheaper grid supply at night diminished the battery storage required for the project, reducing the levelised cost of energy and the end-user tariff.

Grosenbaugh points to the importance of collaboration between existing utilities and private partners for the success of the project, emphasising that such partnerships result in win-win-win situations for consumer, provider and distributor.

He adds that: ‘While not all customers without access to power are best served by a single technology, for Toto and similar-sized communities which experience unreliable electricity, solar-powered grids offer the most cost-effective solution.’

Paving the way forward  
To achieve SDG 7, millions more solar mini-grids must be installed across Sub-Saharan Africa to reach every household and ensure no one is without electricity in 2030. To fully harness the potential of solar mini-grids in Sub-Saharan Africa, a concerted effort from governments, development partners, the private sector and civil society is necessary.

While Africa saw impressive growth in solar in 2023, bringing at least 3.7 GWp online according to AFSIA, this still only represents 1% of global additions. Moreover, 65% of this was commercial and industrial projects, and less than 1% (just 11.7 MW) was mini-grids – although the number may be considerably higher due to figures not being made public by various authorities. It still represents a 64.8% year-on-year increase compared to 2022. However, clearly there is huge scope to expand mini-grid installation across the continent and reach more underserved people.

• Further reading: ‘Africa’s climate innovators triumph at Ashden Awards’. Top low-carbon innovators from Africa have claimed every international category in the 2024 Ashden Awards, an annual scheme that recognises green jobs, skills and livelihoods from the public, private and non-profit sectors in the UK and the Global South.
• A fundamental part of the energy transition should involve its justness: ensuring no one is left behind as the world shifts to renewable sources of energy. Find out how expanding energy access and decarbonisation are aligned, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa.