Under its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the Paris Agreement, the UK has committed to reduce emissions in 2030 by 68% compared to 1990 levels. However, now that deadline is only six years away, the country is not on track to hit this target, warns the CCC in its report. This is despite a significant reduction in emissions in 2023, driven primarily by the phase-out of coal-generated electricity and an increase in renewables.  

The previous government made some headway, says the Committee. The UK’s last coal-fired power station (Ratcliffe-on-Soar in Nottinghamshire) is set to close this year, marking a significant milestone in the nation’s transition to cleaner energy. Other policies mentioned include the zero emission vehicle mandate, exiting the non-net-zero-aligned Energy Charter Treaty, and boosting heat pump funding via the Boiler Upgrade Scheme.

But the CCC insists that more drastic measures are required. The report calls for a rapid reduction in oil and gas use, emphasising that the current progress is insufficient to meet the 2030 target.

It is calling for ‘ambitious action’ from the new government, not just in the energy sector, but also across transport, buildings, industry and agriculture, with ‘low-carbon technologies becoming the norm’.

Much of the low-carbon technology needed is already available, according to the CCC. Yet almost all of the Committee’s indicators for the scale up and roll out of that technology are off track, with rates needing to significantly ramp up. Specifically, the CCC says that by 2030, annual offshore wind installations must increase by at least three times, onshore wind installations will need to double and solar installations must increase by five times. In addition, approximately 10% of existing homes in the UK will need to be heated by a heat pump, compared to only approximately 1% today. Furthermore, the market share of new electric cars needs to increase from 16.5% in 2023 to nearly 100%.

Stating that ‘rapid progress is needed to make up lost ground’, the CCC has published a priority list of 10 recommendations for the remainer of 2024:

• Make electricity cheaper. Removing policy costs from electricity prices will support industrial electrification and ensure the lower running costs of heat pumps compared to fossil-fuel boilers are reflected in household bills.
• Reverse recent policy rollbacks. Reinstate the 2035 phase-out of fossil-fuel boilers, obligations on landlords to improve energy efficiency, and the 2030 phase-out of new fossil-fuel car and van sales.
• Remove planning barriers for heat pumps, electric vehicle charge points and onshore wind.
• Decarbonise public sector buildings.
• Hold contracts for difference (CfD) auctions to achieve at least 50 GW of offshore wind by 2030.
• Accelerate electrification of industrial heat. Strengthen the UK Emissions Trading Scheme to incentivise decarbonisation and support the transition to electric heat in industry.
• Ramp up tree planting and peatland restoration to meet future carbon budgets and net zero targets.
• Deploy engineered removals.  
• Support skills development in transitioning sectors and communities impacted by the energy transition.
• Strengthen the Third National Adaptation Programme (NAP3). Ensure adaptation becomes a fundamental aspect of policymaking across all departments and is integrated into other national policy objectives.

‘The new government has an opportunity to reset the UK’s direction,’ says the CCC. ‘It must send long-term consistent messages on the importance of climate action to businesses and households, back that up with key policies to support investment and focus on removing barriers to deployment.’ The CCC also hopes the government will leverage COP29 in November to reestablish the UK's leadership on the global climate stage.

Industry reactions

Responding to publication of the CCC report, Juliet Phillips, UK Energy Programme Lead at independent think tank E3G, says: ‘Independent experts have confirmed that the Conservative’s climate vandalism was based on false claims – with no evidence that dialling back on ambition would reduce costs to citizens. In fact, rolling back on climate ambition has left households more exposed to expensive fossil fuel imports. The Conservatives not only undermined the UK’s climate leadership, but also actively derailed measures that could have lowered bills and supported our energy independence.’  

Meanwhile, Jess Ralston, Head of Energy at the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), adds: ‘The new government would do well to learn lessons from its predecessor’s missteps. Ensuring that big boiler manufacturers are not able to stand in the way of progress on the Clean Heat Market Mechanism, which would boost competition to bring down heat pump prices, will be important for our long-term energy security. While electric heat pumps can run on British renewables, boilers will be increasingly fuelled by foreign gas as the North Sea continues its inevitable decline.’

She continues: ‘Getting on with introducing minimum energy efficiency standards for the private rented sector would help lower gas demand too, boosting energy security, and shield renters from volatile gas bills. These are no-brainer policies that would get supply chains going and encourage economic growth.’

On renewables, she concludes: ‘There is a wide-open goal for the new government to improve the parameters for the next renewables auction and max out the number of offshore wind bids. This would send a clear signal to the industry and help get more renewables built more quickly, helping to reduce the UK’s exposure to volatile gas markets that have wreaked havoc with energy bills and the cost of living over the last few years.’

The CCC is to publish its advice on the Seventh Carbon Budget and an updated path to net zero early in 2025.