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New Energy World
New Energy World embraces the whole energy industry as it connects and converges to address the decarbonisation challenge. It covers progress being made across the industry, from the dynamics under way to reduce emissions in oil and gas, through improvements to the efficiency of energy conversion and use, to cutting-edge initiatives in renewable and low carbon technologies.
Tripling renewables by 2030 requires at least 16.4% annual growth rate
17/7/2024
Despite renewables becoming the fastest-growing source of power, the world risks missing the tripling renewables target pledged at COP28, according to new statistics from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). To stay the course, the world will now have to grow renewables capacity at a minimum 16.4% rate annually through 2030.
According to IRENA’s latest report, the unprecedented 14% increase of renewables capacity during 2023 established a 10% compound annual growth rate (2017–2023). Combined with the additions of non-renewable capacity over the years, which are now decreasing, the trend sees renewable energy on its way to overtake fossil fuels in global installed power capacity.
However, the report shows that even if last year’s 14% increase rate continues, the tripling target of 11.2 TW by 2030 outlined by IRENA’s 1.5°C scenario will fall 1.5 TW short, missing the target by 13.5%. Furthermore, if the world keeps to the historic annual growth rate of 10%, it will only accumulate 7.5 TW of renewables capacity by 2030, missing the target by almost one-third.
IRENA Director-General Francesco La Camera says: ‘IRENA is committed to support countries in their pathways to meet the target, but we need concrete policy actions and massive mobilisation of finance at full speed to reach our destination together. Consolidated global figures conceal ongoing patterns of concentration in geography. These patterns threaten to exacerbate the decarbonisation divide and pose a significant barrier to achieving the tripling target.’
COP28 President Dr Sultan Al Jaber says the report is ‘a wake-up’ call for the entire world: ‘Governments need to set explicit renewable energy targets, look at actions like accelerating permitting and expanding grid connections, and implement smart policies that push industries to step up and incentivise the private sector to invest. Additionally, this moment provides a significant opportunity to add strong national energy targets in NDCs to support the global goal of keeping the 1.5°C target within reach. Above all, we must change the narrative that climate investment is a burden, to it being an unprecedented opportunity for shared socio-economic development.’
In terms of power generation, the latest data available (for 2022) confirmed the regional disparity in renewables deployment. Asia holds its position as leader in global renewable power generation with 3,749 TWh, followed for the first time by North America (1,493 TWh).
With modest growth of 3.5%, Africa increased its renewable power generation to 205 TWh in 2022, despite the continent’s tremendous potential and immense need for rapid, sustainable growth, according to IRENA.
The most impressive jump occurred in Latin America, where renewable power generation increased by nearly 12% to 940 TWh, due to a hydropower recovery and a greater role for solar energy, the report says.
