Context is everything. And there’s no bigger picture than the Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy, which last week lay bare the state of play in the global energy economy and its journey to net zero.

Overall, the picture is not promising. 2023 was a year of record highs – for burning coal, burning oil (over 100mn b/d for the first time), and for emissions from energy. In total, fossil fuels accounted for 81.5% of global primary energy consumption, barely down on previous years. We also saw record growth in renewables – in fact, more wind and solar were added last year than oil and gas – but clearly we are not on track to meet the Paris goals or to slow the increasingly dangerous impacts of climate change. Arguably, at a global level we haven’t even crossed the start line of the energy transition.

Regional variations
But this global picture masks a granularity at the regional level that is simultaneously encouraging and alarming, and this informs how we should all assess the ambition of our efforts to tackle the climate crisis. The new 2023 data tells us that fossil fuel use is peaking or close to peaking in the most advanced economies. Coal in particular is on a dramatic downward trajectory. Energy efficiency, electrification and the penetration of wind and solar on grids are driving this incredible change.

In Europe, fossil fuels in 2023 were below 70% of the total for the first time since the industrial revolution. It would take a major unexpected change for Europe to revert from this course. The response to the Russia-Ukraine conflict has shown that energy markets can rebalance and consumers will respond to price signals, and that bodes well for the next phase of the transition.

In the US, the fossil fuel share of the primary energy mix also declined in both relative and absolute terms, with a massive decrease in coal. Texas recently overtook California on solar installations. It may be too early to call it a peak but, regardless of who resides at the White House, the US is likely to follow the European trend.

By contrast, the developing – and fast growing – economies of the Global South, in India and across Africa, are struggling to curb the growth of fossil fuel consumption. India has seen fossil fuels growing faster than renewables and the overall mix continues to get more carbon intensive. Coal consumption there exceeded the combined consumption of both North America and Europe for the first time ever.

China is the world’s largest consumer of energy. In fact, nothing conveys its astonishing rise more than the fact it has, for the first time, overtaken Europe on an energy per capita basis. And this is largely fuelled by fossil fuels. China’s full return post-COVID in 2023 saw fossil fuel use increase to a new high, up 6%. But there are signs we could be approaching inflexion points. As a share of primary energy, fossil fuel consumption in China has been in decline since 2011, down to 81.6% in 2023. Significantly, in China’s power sector, nearly half of net generation additions in 2023 were met by renewables, totalling more than the rest of the world’s renewable growth combined.

Interconnected transitions
This imbalance between these contrasting regions of the world raises huge questions for the international community about the efficacy of the global energy transition.

There’s not one single transition journey, no template for energy development and the energy transition, due to such variety of natural resources, diverse starting points and stages of economic development.

But the danger of accepting this lopsided, polarised, multi-speed trend as inevitable is that it doesn’t match up to the urgency of what the climate science is telling us. Every year at COP we rightly expect all nations to step up in the face of climate change, and there is impressive intent. But in the execution of the promises we make, we need to factor in the unintended consequences.

These journeys are influenced by each other. We need to identify if there are structural, causal connections between successful decarbonisation in the richest economies and accelerating carbonisation among the poorer.  

If we were one country on Planet Earth, we would tackle this challenge differently. We would have agreed a global carbon price. Capital for infrastructure would flow to where it was most productive (and carbon reductive). We would prioritise remaining fossil production to lower carbon sources. And we would (most likely) be much further along in phasing out coal. But we are not one country.  

If we were one country on Planet Earth, we would tackle this challenge differently. 

It’s surely no coincidence that the rich economies are successfully attracting the lion’s share of capital and capacity in clean energy, while many developing countries appear to sit at the back of the queue, deepening their reliance on fossil fuels to give their growing populations the access to energy and improved quality of life they deserve.

It’s no coincidence that Europe’s success since 2022 replacing Russian gas with LNG from the global market was achieved by essentially outbidding developing nations, leaving them burning more, dirtier coal and oil. Our data shows this clearly.

It’s no coincidence that offshoring of manufacturing to economies in which labour and overheads are cheaper has enabled consumer nations to cut their territorial greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, leaving the CO₂ emissions in economies less able to deploy the cleaner technologies needed.

All of this reinforces the need to look for a way forward that progresses a transition that is just and doesn’t leave people behind. We need to facilitate capacity-building, and overcome barriers to clean energy finance everywhere, or else the global COP28 goal of tripling of renewables simply won’t happen. Nor will 2°C; let alone 1.5°C.

Different geographies with contrasting energy stories. But one interconnected energy system. One net zero. And one planet.

• Further reading: ‘New Energy Institute data highlights year of global records’. The Statistical Review of World Energy provides the first complete set of data on energy production, consumption and emissions for all energy types around the world for the calendar year 2023, and is available as a free downloadable report and dataset.
• What 10 measures are recommended to triple renewables capacity by 2030 in accordance with the recent COP28 Agreement?