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New Energy World™
New Energy World™ embraces the whole energy industry as it connects and converges to address the decarbonisation challenge. It covers progress being made across the industry, from the dynamics under way to reduce emissions in oil and gas, through improvements to the efficiency of energy conversion and use, to cutting-edge initiatives in renewable and low-carbon technologies.
Exploring China’s enormous green energy shift
5/6/2024
8 min read
Feature
Today, China has 18% of the world’s population, uses 26% of global primary energy, emits 33% of global energy-related CO2, and is by far the leading installer of renewables. The energy transition in China is critical to its future and to the success of the global energy transition, according to a new report from DNV, Energy Transition Outlook China,* of which an edited summary and extract is republished here.
China is establishing itself as a green energy leader with an unrivalled build-out of renewable energy and export of renewable technology. On the other hand, DNV forecasts fossil fuels will still account for 40% of its energy mix in 2050.
Energy independence is a key motivation for Chinese energy policy, but it will be only partly achieved. The power sector is decarbonising quickly by replacing coal with domestically sourced renewable energy, and domestically produced coal will largely be sufficient for the remaining coal demand segments by 2050 (see Fig 1).
However, oil and gas usage will continue to rely on imports. Although oil consumption halves by 2050 from its 2027 peak in our forecasts, its use in petrochemicals and heavy transport (aviation and shipping) will linger and 84% of oil use will be met through imports. Natural gas consumption will remain high, with 2050 consumption marginally below 2023 levels and 58% being imported.