All but one of the EU member states have now finally submitted their draft updated NECPs, with Austria’s on hold as a new climate law has yet to be approved. The new plans are a draft update of the NECPs accepted by the European Commission (EC) in 2019.

Lithuania and Ireland stand out by multiplying their respective solar targets by more than five and 10 respectively, finds the analysis. Poland multiplied its target by three while Finland, Portugal, Slovenia and Sweden more than doubled their previous targets, with Spain increasing its target by 95%.

However, despite the boost in ambition, the NECPs ‘fail to truly connect the dots with what now matters to make the energy transition a reality’: grid deployment, modernisation flexibility and digitalisation, says SolarPower Europe. It reports that while most NECPs at least partially mention flexibility, only four (Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia and Cyprus) provide a real target for demand-side flexibility via smart meter roll-out or demand-side response.

This demand-side gap risks discouraging citizen adaptation to the new energy reality. Europeans should be supported to flex their energy use sensibly and consume electricity when it is abundant – like charging e-vehicles in the middle of the day, suggests SolarPower Europe. Although overlooked in NECPs, demand-side tools should be used to ease pressure on the grid and support the system to add more renewables. Demand-side flexibility means less investment is needed for slow-to-build grid infrastructure.

When it comes to energy storage, nine countries (Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Lithuania and Portugal) have defined dedicated targets in terms of MW, MWh or euros. Of these, four (Belgium, Greece, Lithuania and Portugal) have gone further, with dedicated targets for batteries, small-scale storage or storage at household level. Most EU countries, however, fail to plan to empower the use of renewables 24/7, day or night.

Although a lack of storage infrastructure, or demand-side response, will undoubtedly put pressure on the electricity grid, only two EU countries have set a target or an investment plan for their electricity distribution network – France and Malta. While 20 countries have at least partially acknowledged the investment needs at transmission – high-voltage – level, only France and Malta have set out plans to invest in the low-voltage distribution grid. France intends to increase the investment in its distribution grid by 20% by 2032, while Malta mentions a series of investments in equipment for the upgrade of the grid.

Based on current ambition, the EU would see 626 GW total ambition by 2030, compared to the EU Solar Strategy target of 750 GW and of the industry potential of 902 GW, according to SolarPower Europe. With the draft NECPs submitted to the EC, member states now have until 30 June 2024 to submit any updates before their plans are considered final.

Commenting on the findings, Jonathan Bonadio, Senior Policy Advisor at SolarPower Europe, says: ‘Europe risks putting the cart before the horse. Energy system planning needs to be in sync with energy generation targets. Without proper energy system planning, solar projects will be held up, solar energy will be wasted, and the business case of solar will be undermined.’