This year, more than one in five cars sold worldwide is expected to be electric. Surging demand projected over the next decade is set to remake the global auto industry and significantly reduce oil consumption for road transport, according to the latest edition of the IEA’s annual Global EV Outlook.

The report predicts that global electric car sales will remain robust in 2024, reaching around 17 million by the end of the year. In the first quarter, sales grew by about 25% compared with the same period in 2023 – similar to the growth rate seen in the same period a year earlier, but from a larger base. The number of electric cars sold globally in the first three months of this year is roughly equivalent to the number sold in all of 2020.

In 2024, electric cars sales in China are projected to leap to about 10 million, accounting for about 45% of all car sales in the country. In the US, roughly one in nine cars sold are projected to be electric. In Europe, despite a generally weak outlook for passenger car sales and the phase-out of subsidies in some countries, electric cars are still set to represent about one in four cars sold.

This growth builds on a record-breaking 2023. Last year, global electric car sales accelerated by 35% to almost 14 million. While demand remained largely concentrated in China, Europe and the US, growth also picked up in some emerging markets such as Vietnam and Thailand, where electric cars accounted for 15% and 10%, respectively, of all cars sold.  

Substantial investment in the electric vehicle (EV) supply chain, ongoing policy support, and declines in the price of EVs and their batteries are expected to produce even more significant changes in the years to come, forecasts the IEA. The Outlook finds that with today’s policies, every other car sold globally is set to be electric by 2035. Alternatively, if countries’ announced energy and climate pledges were met in full and on time, two in three cars sold would be electric by 2035. In this scenario, the rapid uptake of EVs – from cars to vans, trucks, buses, and two- and three-wheelers – avoids the need for around 12mn b/d of oil, on a par with current demand from road transport in China and Europe combined, according to the IEA.

‘The continued momentum behind electric cars is clear in our data, although it is stronger in some markets than others,’ comments IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. ‘Rather than tapering off, the global EV revolution appears to be gearing up for a new phase of growth. The wave of investment in battery manufacturing suggests the EV supply chain is advancing to meet auto makers’ ambitious plans for expansion. As a result, the share of EVs on the roads is expected to continue to climb rapidly.’

The report also finds that manufacturers have taken major steps to deliver on the strengthening EV ambitions of governments, including by making significant financial commitments. However, the pace of the transition to EVs in different countries or regions may not be consistent and will hinge on affordability, the IEA emphasises.

In China, more than 60% of electric cars sold in 2023 were already less expensive to buy than their conventional equivalents. But in Europe and the US, the purchase prices for cars with internal combustion engines remained cheaper on average, although intensifying market competition and improving battery technologies are expected to reduce prices in the coming years. Even where upfront prices are high, the lower operating costs of EVs mean the initial investment pays back over time.

Growing electric car exports from Chinese automakers, which accounted for more than half of all electric car sales in 2023, could add to downward pressure on purchase prices, suggests the report. Chinese companies, which are also setting up production facilities abroad, have already seen strong sales of more affordable models launched in 2022 and 2023 in overseas markets. 

Ensuring that the availability of public charging keeps pace with EV sales is crucial for continued growth. In 2023, 40% more public charging points were installed globally than in 2022, and the growth of fast chargers outpaced that of slower ones. However, to meet a level of EV deployment in line with the pledges made by governments, charging networks need to grow sixfold by 2035, says the IEA. At the same time, policy support and careful planning are essential to make sure greater demand for electricity from charging does not overstretch electricity grids.

Accompanying the IEA’s Global EV Outlook 2024 are Global EV Data Explorer and Global EV Policy Explorer, online tools that allow users to interactively explore EV statistics, projections and policy measures worldwide.