To answer this, we must look at the feasibility of the ambition and what is potentially standing in the way of us achieving it. Clean energy think tank Ember has put together an excellent report which tracks national ambitions towards a global tripling of renewables. The good news is that individual government plans and targets are already in place for a doubling of renewable capacity by 2030; and the current trajectory of the ongoing roll out of renewables exceeds these targets. With little or no intervention, we’d be on track to deliver more than double by 2030.

The challenge to treble is an increase from 500 GW in 2023 to 1.5 TW in 2030, a target which looks realistic and achievable given the progress to date.

To reach the coveted 1.5 TW goal and triple global renewable energy capacity, we need to maintain the consistent 17% year-on-year growth we’ve experienced from 2016 to 2023. This overall incremental rate was undoubtedly boosted by the 73% growth we witnessed in 2023 – driven largely by the war in Ukraine and energy market uncertainty – and it shows what can be achieved.

Although 2023 may have been an extraordinary year, for governments to genuinely achieve the 2030 target and demonstrate true commitment to remaining ahead of the curve, setting higher goals to ensure current progress continues is essential.

A pledge for the planet 
So, why is this being seen as the single biggest action that global leaders can take?

Over the years, we’ve seen many governments make distinct pledges to address the climate crisis and usher in a greener future. Why is tripling renewable capacity such a crucial move for the planet and people?

Put simply, if we achieve a trebling of renewables by 2030 we’ll deliver a 35% reduction in CO₂ emissions from 2022 to 2030; and a 65% reduction to 2035. This is significant and is so large because trebling renewables is not simply about transitioning our current energy generation to greener sources; it’s about generating the additional electricity required for increased electrification.

The global demand for electricity is set to rise steeply as our economies electrify the transport and heating sectors, and transition away from fossil fuels. As the demand for energy increases, we need to meet it with renewable energy generation.

The tripling of renewables is fundamental to replacing fossil fuel energy generation and increasing supply, and that’s why it is such a game changer. Reducing emissions by these levels should mitigate some of the worst impacts of climate change that are being predicted both socially and economically.

A global commitment to growth 
We’ve seen this growth; we’re achieving the growth; but the real question now is can we keep it up?

Delivering against this global target will not look the same for everyone. Some countries are already over-reaching what they need to deliver, and the part they must play is to continue to over-achieve, preparing for others to fall short, and to continue to deliver innovation, skills transfer and quantities of scale for the industry as a whole. Other countries, with very little renewable capacity already in place, will need to do far more than triple their capacity in order to deliver what’s needed from them.

The Ember report offers a fascinating glimpse into which countries are leading the way in the renewable energy race, shedding light on each nation’s targets and where they’re projected to be by 2030. Ultimately, what it shows is that many governments need to look at their current progress and plans, and then get more ambitious.

It looks like a no-brainer? 
Now for the frustrating, real-world part. Modelling using published targets, ambitions and plans is one thing, but the actual delivery can often be a very different reality. Ember’s figures include projects that are in the pipeline, with a number of caveats such as identifying a suitable location, receiving planning, or indeed acquiring a connection agreement to their national electricity network.

As a UK renewable energy installer, there is nothing quite as heartbreaking as having to tell a customer who has signed their proposal, secured their funding and is looking forward to cost savings, increased energy security and lower emissions, that they cannot proceed because we can’t get a connection to the local electricity grid.

Trade association Solar Energy UK is one organisation working in the UK to smooth the path for increased renewable energy. Whether it is tackling ‘zombie’ proposals (which fail to fulfil their promise and yet keep shuffling along, sucking up resources without coming to fruition) or working to improve planning laws, there’s more to be done to ensure these pipeline projects aren’t pipe dream projects.

Financing 17% growth year-on-year is another challenge that needs to be met. Although private investment in renewable technology delivers considerable returns, some organisations will require funding to access green energy.

Governments need to ensure that they can secure the growth of renewables in terms of supporting the projects themselves and delivering the required electrical infrastructure to feed this energy into their networks, especially if some of their existing energy generation is off-grid, diesel generation.

Here in the UK there are a few government and local authority grants, as well as the odd tax break to support domestic investment. The UK renewables sector, although still young, has come of age.

Having received an initial boost from the generous feed-in tariffs available a few years ago, not only have the installation costs significantly decreased, but the resulting energy bill savings alone ensure a return on investment within around five years. Financing options for renewable energy projects are low risk, with several options available.

The challenge for the UK private sector is being able to prioritise investment in renewables during times of uncertainty. A more determined direction of travel from our government, with incentivisation if possible, is needed if we are to help private businesses to make these decisions. Only then will they be able to realise the benefits of cleaner, cheaper energy sooner rather than later, and support global efforts to triple capacity.

120 kW solar PV system at Toyota in Derby
Photo: Geo Green Power
 

Can the supply chain keep up? 
A global trebling of renewable generation capacity is no small feat. Experts predict it will require a fivefold increase in solar photovoltaics (PV), a threefold growth in wind energy and ongoing development in other initiatives such as hydro and geothermal.

In terms of materials and manufacturing, the signs are good. Solar panel production, for example, doubled in two years leading to a reduction in the cost of solar panels recently. A clear direction of travel and increased global demand will drive further investment in manufacturing and the early signs are that it can keep in step.

Many businesses trading through 2020 and 2021 will know how vulnerable their operations are when it comes to supply chains. The disruption in manufacturing and then global shipping as a result of COVID-19 shutdowns had a severe impact on the construction industry. If global unrest or another pandemic caused a similar impact, would this knock us off course in terms of delivery?

Examine the data, and you will notice a temporary stall in growth from 2020–2022. However, beneath the statistical surface lies the industry's proactive measures and readiness for similarly unhelpful scenarios.

An outcome of the COVID pandemic has been a rethinking of supply chain continuity and the Ukraine war has made everyone think about the security of their energy source. Becoming more self-sufficient is on the agenda. For example, here in the UK there is a focus on securing domestic manufacturing for electric vehicle (EV) batteries. It would be good to see more manufacturing of renewable technologies develop in Europe and other markets.

An outcome of the COVID pandemic has been a rethinking of supply chain continuity and the Ukraine war has made everyone think about the security of their energy source.

Who is going to do the work? 
As highlighted in a recent article in The Guardian, here in the UK we’re looking at changing our industrial landscape on a similar scale to the industrial revolution. Official climate adviser to the UK government, the Climate Change Committee, estimates that anything between 135,000 and 725,000 new jobs could be created by 2030 in low-carbon sectors such as renewables, building upgrades and EV manufacturing. Presumably similar scenarios are set to be played out in other countries to a greater or lesser extent.

Putting the politics of The Guardian to one side, there are big questions to be asked as to whether we have been nurturing and growing the skills that we will so desperately need. Recruitment remains a challenge for our industry. For many years Geo Green Power’s only option was to recruit for a relevant skill set and train internally for the requirements of solar PV, heat pump, battery and EV installation. It’s only very recently that we have started to receive candidates who have renewables experience already on their CV.

A green economy, powered by renewable energy and delivering jobs in sustainable industries is the goal, and it’s within reach. To realise it we need some joined up thinking and focused effort to address the barriers that stand in our way. The market is naturally exceeding the targets that governments have initially outlined, and if we keep up the current pace we will stay on track to achieve one of the biggest game changers that we can deliver in terms of climate change.

Around the globe communities and private businesses are driving this change, and will continue to do so as cleaner and cheaper energy is worth investing in. To achieve a trebling of renewables we need to see national action on infrastructure and legislation, and much greater ambitions on what can be achieved.