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Europe’s imported methane emissions fall since start of Ukraine war
31/1/2024
New data shows that there has been an overall reduction in European imported methane emissions since the outbreak of war in Ukraine.
Analysis by digital MRV company Kayrros, combining satellite imagery, artificial intelligence (AI) and geoanalytics, has revealed that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has transformed Europe’s imported gas patterns and imported methane footprint. This has changed both the methane intensity of individual European importers and the geographical distribution of imported emissions.
According to Kayrros, one reason for the fall in imported methane emissions is the replacement of a large share of Russian gas, now at 25%, with US (15%) and Qatari (6.4%) gas, both of which have a lower methane intensity. The intensity of imported US gas is estimated to be 0.13 kg/1,000 cf; for Qatari gas, it is 0.0167 kg/1,000 cf. Additionally, Kayrros reports that the methane intensity of the imported European gas in 2021 stood at 0.16 kg/1,000 cf, which subsequently dropped in 2022 to 0.14 kg, meaning a 16% reduction in methane intensity between 2021 and 2022.
However, the overall decline conceals major differences between individual European importers. The data shows that southern European countries, including Portugal, Spain and Italy, generally import from high-emitting African nations. Northern countries, such as Germany, tend to import from ‘cleaner’ producers. Eastern European countries, including Bulgaria, are highly dependent on Russia, while Malta and Latvia show a mixed pattern.
Kayrros has revealed the source of most European gas imports, except for Slovakia and Czechia, where only around 35% of imports have a clear origin. Reducing imported methane emissions associated with natural gas and electricity is an important European Union (EU) goal in the wake of COP28 and the historic EU agreement on imported methane.
Antoine Rostand, President, Kayrros, says: ‘The overall methane intensity of gas imports is now lower in Europe, and that’s good news, even if there are stark differences in imported emissions between individual importers. Tackling super-emitters, which are plain to see via satellite imagery, is a relatively easy way to bring down imported methane emissions overall. What is also clear is that without independent, reliable, verifiable and near-realtime data, it’s very difficult to understand the exact effect that geopolitical upheaval, such as the conflict in Ukraine, has on imports, associated emissions and global warming overall. It’s key that all climate action is informed by the latest and most reliable data.’
