The energy transition plan sets out an ambitious pathway to achieve universal energy access by the end of the decade and a peak in emissions by 2040. Its stated objectives include:  

• Provide universal access to electricity and cleaner cooking by 2030.
• Modernise and diversify Uganda’s energy mix and promote its efficient use across all sectors to support industrial growth, poverty reduction and socio-economic transformation.
• Ensure secure and affordable energy supply.
• Mitigate energy emissions in line with Uganda’s conditional climate commitments, which imply a 20% reduction compared to baseline emissions in 2030.
• Position Uganda as an energy hub for the East African region.

Analysis carried out with the support of the International Energy Agency (IEA) shows that implementing the energy transition plan would allow Uganda to meet its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the Paris Agreement in 2030 and be in a position to reach net zero emissions from its energy sector by 2065, enabling it to set an economy-wide climate neutrality target for around the same year.

Achieving net zero emissions by 2065 would require reaching $8bn in annual clean energy investments in Uganda by the end of the decade, with almost 90% of this financing directed towards projects focused on improving energy access and expanding clean energy capacity, says the IEA.  

The heart of the energy transition plan, which builds on Uganda’s current energy policies, is expanding low-emissions electricity across the country. Uganda’s grid is already 99% powered by renewables. Under the new roadmap, electricity generation grows 14% per year – and low-emissions energy sources maintain their near-total share of the overall electricity mix amid this growth.

The plan sees solar power as the leading source of low-cost generation, with hydro and geothermal resources meeting more than one-quarter of generation by 2050. Power generation will also be supplemented by nuclear power, with plans underway to develop a 1,000 MW nuclear power plant by 2031 and another by 2040.

Uganda is also home to domestic resources of critical minerals and hydrocarbons, although oil accounted for less than 10% of the country’s total energy supply in 2021, with all oil products being imported through Kenya and Tanzania, and primarily used for transport. However, oil production is set to begin in 2025 from the Tilenga and Kingfisher projects being developed by a consortium of TotalEnergies, China National Oil Corporation and the Uganda National Oil Company, to help meet growing domestic demand.  

Meanwhile, the planned East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) will stretch from Hoima District in western Uganda to the Tanzanian coast at Tanga, providing an outlet for landlocked Ugandan crude oil to the international market. There are also plans for an oil refinery to serve the domestic and East African markets.

Additionally, Uganda is currently developing graphite and rare earths projects while exploring other potential resources of minerals needed to accelerate clean energy transitions. Deposits of critical minerals, if harnessed sustainably, could reinforce Uganda’s own energy transition and contribute to economic growth, according to the IEA.

Strong partnerships will be key to seeing through the energy transition plan, according to the analysis. There is also a much bigger role to play for the private sector, which could dramatically ramp up its share of investments in Uganda’s electricity system.  

Oil and gas to help ‘fast track’ Uganda’s economic development

As noted, Uganda also holds hydrocarbons reserves and Sidronius Okaasai Opolot, Uganda’s Minister of State for Energy, believes ‘the implementation of oil and gas projects in Uganda presents enormous opportunities for fast-tracking the country’s development’. Speaking at a recent conference staged by the Petroleum Authority of Uganda (PAU), he said the sector is expected to generate 160,000 jobs for Ugandans and has already pumped $1bn in contracts to domestic companies.  

The Ugandan government aims to optimise national content in oil and gas projects, ‘ensuring that 40% of the investments in terms of cash remain in the country so that Ugandans are benefiting from their oil and gas resource,’ added Ernest Rubondo, PAU Executive Director, also speaking at the conference in Kampala, Uganda.