The report from Climate Analytics finds that global GHG emissions could start falling next year, in 2024, if current clean technology trends continue, with the recent boom in wind and solar outstripping energy demand growth and forcing fossil fuels out of the energy system. ‘This would lead to peak coal in 2023 and peak gas in 2024. Peak oil would follow in 2025, if current growth rates in EVs are sustained,’ predicts the analysis.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says that to limit global warming to 1.5°C, global GHG emissions need to peak before 2025 at the latest.  

‘We find the world can peak emissions in time for the IPCC deadline, but only if governments work with the market to support renewables and stop pulling in the wrong direction with fossil funding and subsidies. A peaking commitment at COP28 would send a clear signal that they mean business,’ says the report’s author and Climate Analytics’ Head of Policy Claire Fyson.

The report, which models the continued acceleration of wind, solar and EV deployment, finds the roll out of these technologies alone gives a 65% chance of flipping global emissions into decline. Additional action to curb other GHGs, such as methane and nitrous oxide, results in a 70% chance that a sustained fall in emissions would start in 2024 – even when accounting for year-to-year fluctuations in emissions.

‘For years, energy demand growth has outstripped renewables deployment, despite record additions of wind and solar. We’re now approaching the tipping point, where renewables overtake demand growth and start displacing coal, oil and gas. This would mark the beginning of the end for the fossil economy,’ says report author and Climate Analytics expert Dr Neil Grant.

A key factor driving the 2023 peak in global emissions is the pace of the energy transition in China. The analysis finds China’s solar and wind capacity could reach close to 1,500 GW by 2025, meeting its 2030 target of 1,200 GW more than five years early. ‘This would flip the country’s power sector and overall economy into long-term emissions decline and place planned coal power projects under high risk of being stranded.’

Despite clear market trends, governments could fast-track or delay the energy transition and peaking date depending on their policy choices. And even if the IPCC peaking milestone is met, steep emissions reductions would need to follow to halve global emissions by 2030 and keep the Paris Agreement goal in reach, stress the authors. ‘By the end of this decade, the world needs to triple renewable capacity, double energy efficiency, and reduce fossil fuel use by 40% to limit warming to 1.5°C,’ they state.

Methane emissions from coal mines may be double official estimates

Meanwhile, new analysis from think tank Ember suggests that global methane emissions from coal mines may be twice as high as reported by governments. The In The Dark report compares estimates of coal methane emissions submitted by governments (some 30.5mn tonnes) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) with estimates from three independent studies that range between 38–67mn t/y.  

The report recommends that governments require all coal mines to directly measure and report their methane, with independent satellite verification. It calls for support for low-income countries in implementing this. Coal mine methane emissions must fall by 75% by 2030 to be on track for 1.5°C, according to the International Energy Agency’s net zero analysis.

‘Methane is accelerating climate change this decade and yet we have no idea of the scale of the issue,’ says Dr Sabina Assan, methane analyst at Ember. ‘The lowest estimates put the climate impact on a par with India, at the top end more than the US. In reality, we have no idea how big the problem is.’ She continues: ‘Closing the information gap between estimated and emitted emissions is the first step to cutting methane emissions, which is the strongest lever we have to slow climate change in the short term.’