Today, humanity faces one of its most pressing and formidable challenges, given the profound and escalating impacts of climate change – as the world grapples with the grim reality characterised by a surge in extreme weather events, rampant wildfires, prolonged droughts and devastating floods. These ‘natural’ catastrophes are occurring with increased frequency and intensity, and can be directly attributed to the emission of greenhouse gases (GHG) that trap heat within the atmosphere. To avert an environmental disaster, our global leaders have set the challenge to achieve net zero by 2050.

But how will this be possible when our demand for oil has never been greater?

Driven by increasing populations, conflicts like the war in Ukraine and the pursuit of economic growth, US crude oil exports in 2022 increased to a new record of 3.6mn b/d, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), and are forecast by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) to produce an additional 1.4mn b/d in 2023 (see Fig 1).

Fig 1: Annual US crude oil exports, 1920–2022 
Source: US Energy Information Administration

The need for sustainable alternatives to replace fossil fuels is unprecedented. Yet the progress of producing abundant, clean, carbon-neutral and affordable fuel is faltering in the face of this demand.

Shipping, aviation and road transport currently account for almost 25% of global emissions, according to transportgeography.org, and the workhorse for powering these sectors is fuelled on fossil-based hydrocarbons. Global aviation fuel consumption is set to return to 2019 pre-COVID levels of 95bn gallons/y and keep rising year after year, notes Statista. Aviation experts also estimate that the active commercial fleet of aircraft will rise from 25,368 in 2017 to 35,501 in 2027.

Despite mandated targets and initiatives to reach net zero, the aviation industry is showing no signs of slow down, and there is no viable replacement to the jet engine for commercial aviation on the near horizon.

The potential of e-fuels 
Currently e-fuels – drop-in replacements for petroleum-based fuels synthesised from sustainable sources of carbon using renewable electricity – appear to offer a pathway to achieve carbon neutrality for certain modes of transport. These e-fuels can be processed to resemble conventional fossil fuels such as gasoline, diesel or kerosene, and can often act as a drop-in replacement that requires no major modifications to existing internal combustion systems.

The biggest challenge facing production of e-fuels is the cost associated with current production methods and enormous power requirements, as well as the challenge of securing carbon sources without generating excess carbon emissions in the process.

These challenges raise the question: Will e-fuel production methods reach the economy of scale required to meet the net zero target for aviation and road transport by 2050?

There are many emerging technology developers who believe they will.

Typically, renewable fuel production – be it for green hydrogen, e-fuels, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) etc – will inherently be large electricity consumers themselves in the race for net zero.

Renewable electricity infrastructure 
The expansion of renewable electricity infrastructure is essential to support these decarbonisation efforts. Olaf Scholz, the Chancellor of Germany, emphasises the necessity of constructing three to four new wind turbines every day for Germany to achieve its ambition of becoming a carbon-neutral industrialised nation. Presently, the rate of wind turbine production stands at slightly above one per day, according to Clean Energy Wire.

Equally important is the establishment of significant new processing facilities. These facilities are vital for achieving the necessary scale to meet net zero objectives in the transportation and industrial sectors within coming years.

The journey towards decarbonisation not only demands advancements in technology but also necessitates substantial investment, with the recognition that that these commitments involve a considerable lead time before yielding any financial returns.

Industries like road transport, marine and manufacturing are all grappling with challenges akin to those faced by the aviation sector in terms of sourcing sustainable fuel sources. Given that these feedstocks often overlap, competition could impact supply, demand and market prices.

The mounting pressure on oil and gas producers to reshape their operations and realign strategies with a net zero world has intensified given the calls for change from various quarters, including investors, environmentalist advocates, policymakers and, to some extent, entire nations in the run up to COP28 in Dubai this year.

So where does the oil sector stand? 
The oil industry has a history of surmounting diverse challenges – a trait that the burgeoning carbon-neutral sector must emulate. With a track record of venturing into uncharted territories and delivering results, the oil industry stands well-positioned to replicate this success in the carbon-limited and eventually carbon-free sphere.

Transitioning from fossil-based to carbon-neutral fuels necessitates not only the advancement of new technologies but also the refinement of existing ones. Above all, it entails the establishment of numerous large process plants, pivotal for various decarbonisation pathways.

However, it is imperative to acknowledge the continuing need for oil and gas, which will persist for a significant period. The transition from these conventional fuels hinges on the availability of clean alternatives. We suggest that oil and gas companies should persist in production not only to ensure their survival but also as they possess the financial and technical capacity to lead or significantly support the charge towards a carbon-neutral world.

Transitioning from fossil-based to carbon-free fuels necessitates not only the advancement of new technologies but also the refinement of existing ones.

A promising initiative  
Waste-to-fuel (WtF) is an example of a promising technology for a sustainable alternative, which admittedly faces diverse and substantial challenges to reach economy-of-scale.

WtF is a pathway to SAF production using technologies like gasification and Fischer-Tropsch, for synthesis to transform solid waste into a drop-in jet fuel. Feedstocks can be cellulosic waste (forestry/wood and agricultural waste) and municipal solid waste (MSW), which are carbon-rich and a by-product of human activity.

Using MSW as feedstock, offers a multi-pronged approach to tackle the environmental impact of current waste management practices. By burning carbon-rich fractions of household/commercial waste and collecting the synthesis gases (syngas) it produces for fuel production, the volume of waste going to landfill can be reduced, preventing subsequent methane emissions as well as supplying a carbon-neutral fuel to the transport sectors.

However, the logistics of collecting, sorting, pre-treating MSW and conversion into fuel is a huge challenge. These processes require complex infrastructure, logistical operations and technology.

Benefits of offshore oil and gas technologies for renewables 
Certain strategies championed by offshore oil and gas sectors, offer noteworthy contributions to renewable energy developments, such as modular construction using pre-assembled units (PAUs) and modules (PAMs) that can prove invaluable in challenging and/or remote production locations. By reducing timelines and costs for new plant construction, this approach can be pivotal to achieve timely net zero goals.

This is particularly relevant for countries that have abundant clean energy owing to a wealth of geothermal/hydroelectric power, for example, which are ideal for fuel-hungry production processes such as electrolysis and Fischer-Tropsch synthesis. Yet these countries may have limited industrial infrastructure. Here, the oil industry can draw upon decades of experience in international coordination to deliver technical, operational and management solutions at pace to achieve future net zero targets in an expedient timeframe.

Oil sector experience in the construction of large, complex capital projects underscores the importance of robust project management in engineering and constructing novel process plants, be it WtF facilities, e-fuel refineries, green hydrogen production and more.

The cornerstone of successful project management is meticulous planning and scheduling, proven time and again for successful execution of large, complex mega-projects – reminiscent of those achieved in the North Sea over several decades.

This expertise in mega-projects can guide the implementation of carbon-neutral infrastructure development, helping overcome the logistical, economic and operational hurdles which often slow-down the roll-out of ambitious, commercial-scale carbon-neutral fuel production projects in the net zero race in the face of potential climate disaster.