The new Roadmap sets out a global pathway to keep the 1.5°C goal in reach, incorporating the significant changes to the energy landscape in the past two years, including the post-pandemic economic rebound and significant growth in some clean energy technologies. But worryingly, the report also notes increased investment in fossil fuels and stubbornly high emissions.

Since 2021, record growth in solar power capacity and electric vehicle (EV) sales are in line with a pathway towards net zero emissions globally by mid-century, as are industry plans for the roll-out of new manufacturing capacity for them. These two technologies alone deliver one-third of the emissions reductions between today and 2030 in the pathway, the report notes.

Clean energy innovation has also been delivering more options and lowering technology costs.

Yet bolder action is necessary this decade, the IEA warns. In this year’s updated pathway, global renewable power capacity triples by 2030. Meanwhile, the annual rate of energy efficiency improvements doubles, sales of EVs and heat pumps rise sharply, and energy sector methane emissions fall by 75%. These strategies, which are based on proven and often cost-effective technologies for lowering emissions, together deliver more than 80% of the reductions needed by the end of the decade.

‘Despite the scale of the challenges, I feel more optimistic than I felt two years ago,’ says IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. ‘Solar photovoltaic (PV) installations and EV sales are perfectly in line with what we said they should be, to be on track to reach net zero by 2050, and thus stay within 1.5°C. Clean energy investments in the last two years have seen a staggering 40% increase.’

The report outlines a route to net zero emissions for the global energy sector by 2050, but recognises the importance of fostering an equitable transition that takes different national circumstances into account. Nonetheless, staying on track means almost all countries must move forward their targeted net zero dates. It also hinges on mobilising a significant increase in investment, especially in emerging and developing economies. In the new zero pathway, global clean energy spending rises from $1.8tn in 2023 to $4.5tn annually by the early 2030s.

In the updated net zero scenario, a huge policy-driven ramping up of clean energy capacity drives fossil fuel demand 25% lower by 2030, reducing emissions by 35% compared with the all-time high recorded in 2022. By 2050, fossil fuel demand falls by 80%. As a result, the IEA emphasises that no new long-lead-time upstream oil and gas projects are needed. Neither are new coal mines, mine extensions or new unabated coal plants. Nonetheless, continued investment is required in some existing oil and gas assets and already approved projects.

Birol insists: ‘COP28 is a critical juncture and should send a strong signal to energy markets that governments are taking the climate seriously. They should move to reduce the consumption of unabated fossil fuels.’ The IEA has also called for COP28 to agree a doubling of energy efficiency. ‘To reduce fossil fuel emissions, we need to reduce demand for fossil fuels. This is a golden condition, if we are to reach our climate goals,’ Birol says.

The report warns that a failure to sufficiently step-up ambition and implementation between now and 2030 would create additional climate risks and make achieving the 1.5°C goal dependant on the massive deployment of carbon removal technologies, which are expensive and unproven at scale.

A failure to expand clean energy quickly enough by 2030 could mean nearly 5bn tonnes of CO₂ would have to be removed from the atmosphere every year during the second half of this century. If carbon removal technologies fail to deliver at such scale, returning the temperature to 1.5°C would not be possible.

Cut carbon intensity seven times faster
According to new analysis by PwC, a year-on-year decarbonisation rate of 17.2% (up from 15.2% last year) is now required to limit global warming to 1.5°C – seven times greater than what was achieved over the last year (2.5%).

To put this into perspective, since 2000, no G20 country has achieved a decarbonisation rate of more than 11% in a single year – the highest level was achieved by the UK in 2014 (10.9%), the report notes.

Emma Cox, Global Climate Leader, PwC, says: ‘The fact the world needs to decarbonise seven times faster is a spur to action, not a counsel of despair. While the overall pace has to pick up rapidly, dramatic change is possible when business and policymakers align. The rapid acceleration of the deployment of wind and solar in several regions shows change can happen.’

More positively, the analysis shows that last year saw a surge in renewable energy adoption, with solar energy experiencing its highest growth ever recorded at 24.4% and wind energy increasing by 13.1%. PwC says this accelerated action needs to be echoed in wider economic sector transitions, infrastructure and coupled with increased support to developing countries.

Government policies work to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
Meanwhile, new analysis by UCL researchers calls for more stringent regulations to limit global warming to the Paris temperature goals.

Emissions tracked over two decades show that since the early 2000s, governments around the world have enacted numerous regulations to curb greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, over this period, GHG emissions have continued to increase. The rate of annual increase slowed in recent years from 2.3% per year between 2000 and 2010, to 1.3% per year until 2014 when it dropped to only 0.8% per year.

The researchers find that had the world not enacted this range of climate mitigation policies, significantly more CO₂ would have been emitted into the atmosphere. They estimate that each year, between 2bn and 7bn fewer tonnes of CO₂ have been released into the atmosphere than in a world without mitigation policies, representing a decrease of 4% to 15%.

The researchers found that policies that support the wide adoption of clean energy technology, including renewable power sources and electric vehicles (EVs), were the single biggest contributor to the decrease in emissions, leading to an estimated reduction of almost a billion tonnes of CO₂ in 2022 alone. These policies stop carbon from being emitted at the source, which the authors say is the best way to halt climate change. Other actions such as enacting carbon pricing, efforts to decrease deforestation, and policies to reduce energy consumption were also shown to be effective, but more limited.

In addition, international treaties were also found to be effective drivers of GHG reduction. The Kyoto Protocol, which was adopted in 1997, helped to reduce GHG emissions by 7% over its first commitment period spanning from 2008 to 2012. The ultimate impacts of the Paris Agreement, signed in 2015, are not yet apparent, although the researchers point to the widespread adoption of net zero targets and other policy efforts as a positive outcome.

Lead author, Janna Hoppe of ETH Zürich, says: ‘While existing efforts are vastly insufficient for limiting global warming to 1.5°C, three decades of mitigation policy have demonstrably lowered emissions and put us on a trajectory that makes reaching climate neutrality by mid-century a tenable goal.’