Based on planned carbon capture projects, Rystad predicts that more than 90mn t/y of CO₂ will be shipped by the end of the decade, with these volumes requiring 48 terminals to handle the import and export of the gas.

As the global carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) market expands, a significant hurdle in the value chain is the lack of available transportation and storage networks for projects. Onshore pipelines are the most common mode currently, with 330 expected to be operational by 2030. These pipelines are ideal for transporting large quantities of CO₂ to onshore storage sites or coastal terminals. Offshore pipelines are larger, transport captured carbon to underwater storage sites and are expected to play a vital role in the supply chain in the coming years. CO₂ shipping is the third piece of the puzzle and the most flexible solution for carrying carbon emissions over long distances at a relatively low cost, according to Rystad.

However, the shipping industry’s reliance on emissions-heavy conventional fuels like maritime diesel or low-sulphur fuel oil, calls into question the environmental impact of the process. Although greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) over shorter distances may be relatively low, the impact multiplies quickly over longer journeys. Based on the report’s research of CO₂ shipping routes that could come online in 2030, ships traveling long distances could emit as much as 5% of the total CO₂ shipped. Switching to LNG as marine fuel could cut emissions by 18%, while blue methanol would result in a 20% drop. The real reduction would come with the use of blue ammonia, which would slash the emissions impact of the shipping process by up to 80%, the research finds.

GHG emissions for marine fuels are calculated well-to-wake, including associated emissions in the fuel’s upstream production, refining and end use. Emission estimates are based on a vessel with a 25,000 m³ capacity.

The myriad challenges and uncertainties, including high costs, across the CCUS value chain often dissuade plant owners from exploring carbon capture opportunities, the research has found. Fortunately, emerging initiatives, including the development of open-source CO₂ storage infrastructure and the expansion and diversification of transportation networks, should ease some of these restraints and reduce the complexity of projects, according to Rystad.

The report notes that the North Sea is set to take centre stage in the CO₂ shipping surge due to its proximity to major populated areas in Northern Europe. Norway looks set to account for about 30% of all shipped CO₂ globally in 2030, some 26mn t/y, based on announced projects and memoranda of understanding – although this hinges on whether storage sites can be developed quickly enough. The Netherlands follows Norway, with 23mn t/y, and the UK, with about 20mn t/y of forecast shipping volumes. These totals include the shipping of domestically captured CO₂ plus imports from other countries. For instance, the UK has prolific subsurface storage potential and an ambitious CO₂ storage target, so it will likely prioritise storing its emissions rather than shipping to its North Sea neighbours.

France is expected to ship 17mn t/y of CO₂ in 2030, followed by Belgium at 13mn t/y, Rystad has found. These countries do not have ample opportunities to store their CO₂ emissions domestically, so the chance to ship CO₂ to neighbouring European countries will help fast-track CCUS developments.

The Northern Lights project in Norway is set to be the first open-source CO₂ transport and storage network when it opens in early 2025. The project will receive domestically shipped CO₂ and volumes from north-west Europe at its onshore terminal before piping and storing the gas under the seabed. Phase one of the project will store up to 1.5mn t/y of CO₂. This looks set to be the first of many such projects, each with nuances, but all will involve receiving shipped CO₂ to store underground.

Australia will also be a significant player in the global market, shipping and storing CO₂ from domestic projects and neighbouring Asia-Pacific countries, including Japan. Most of the proposed shipping routes – including those in Europe and around Australia – are no more than 2,500 km, a relatively short journey. However, planned routes between Japan, Malaysia and Australia would involve sailing more than 5,000 km. The longest journey announced to date would be between South Korea and Saudi Arabia, a one-way trip of at least 12,000 km.

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