Following pressure from other EU member states and peer review of energy policy by the International Energy Agency (IEA), Poland recently submitted updated plans to generate about three quarters of its electricity from zero emissions sources by 2040, with 51% derived from renewables and 23% from nuclear.

Although recent years have seen the ‘coal-friendly’ government put increasing emphasis on renewables, there have been signs of back sliding despite Poland’s efforts to achieve independence from Russian fossil fuels and the need to adapt to EU green policies.

Lowest green ranking 
According to an EU-funded study by Politkya Insight, Poland ranks lowest in an EU green index of environmental performance and efforts to address climate issues. Poland received a score of just 34 out of 100, behind Estonia (36.1), Luxembourg (37.4) and Finland (38.1), while Malta came top at 59.4, followed by France (57.4), Sweden (55.7) and Spain (54.9).

Poland is one of 10 countries in the EU that lag significantly in terms of combatting climate change, producing about 17% of its total energy from renewables in 2021, and ranking last in the category for state support of green investment. However, the proportion of coal in the energy mix has dropped from 87% to 71% in the last decade. Although Krakow still tops the world ranking for annual smog pollution, ahead of New Delhi in India.

According to Polish think tank Forum Energii, coal still makes up almost half of energy sources used (45%) in Poland. Overall, 85% of the country’s energy came from fossil fuels in 2021, alongside coal, oil contributed 23% and natural gas 17%. While renewable sources provided only 10% of total energy consumption, with 8% from biomass.

‘Poland is one of 10 countries in the EU that lag significantly in terms of combatting climate change, producing about 17% of its energy from renewables in 2021.’ – EU-funded study by Politkya Insight

New Polish energy transition policy 
In April 2023, Poland’s Climate Ministry announced an update to the government’s energy strategy, known as PEP2040, which promises that by 2040 zero emission renewables will account for about 74% of installed electricity capacity. In the interim, renewables are anticipated to account for 47% of the energy mix by 2030.

The new plan states that renewables could have a generating capacity of 88 GW by 2040, providing 51% of power. This includes biomass and biogas, although they are not accepted by some EU member states as truly ‘zero emission energy’ sources.

‘The revised forecasts will allow us to strengthen Poland’s energy sovereignty and competitiveness of the national economy, and ensure energy security for citizens,’ said Climate Minister Anna Moskowa at a recent press conference. Poland insists it is meeting its EU target for renewable energy – but only when biomass is counted.

Wind forecasts 
Onshore wind power, which accounts for about 8 GW of capacity today, is expected to increase to 14 GW in 2030 and 20 GW by 2040. Offshore wind is anticipated to reach 5.9 GW by 2030 and up to 18 GW in 2040, although no offshore wind projects are currently underway in Poland. Only local companies, PKN Orlen and PGE, were successful in the recent auction for several GW of Polish seabed lease areas for offshore wind developments.

The Polska Groupa Energetyczna (PGE Group) and Polish Electricity Association (PKEE) plan to build offshore and onshore wind farms, with further development of solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity as well. PGE aims to boost the share of renewables in its portfolio to 50% by 2030. It is currently developing offshore wind farms with total capacity of 2.5 GW by 2030, together with hybrid electricity storage.

Solar growing fast 
Poland has one of the fastest growing markets for distributed solar PV in Europe. From 2016 to 2021, the country’s PV capacity rose from 0.2 GW to 7.7 GW, driven mostly by residential deployment of small-scale distributed PV systems (5.9 GW). Poland added about 4.7 GW of new PV capacity in 2022, hitting a total of 12.4 GW, according to research institute Instytut Energetyki Odnawialnej (IEO), and is forecast to add a further 6 GW in 2023.

Small-scale distributed renewables (mainly solar PV) receive support through several measures, including the My Electricity programme, with grants to cover installation costs and net billing. A support scheme for cogeneration (introduced in 2019) was expected to drive transition from coal to gas.

PGE is building a 50 MW solar farm in Kleszczow. Meanwhile, Equinor’s second Polish solar plant, Zagòrzyca, has started test production. The 60 MW plant is located in Damnica and will be operated by Equinor subsidiary Wento. Wento now has two solar plants and another under construction.

Last November, Orlen Group subsidiary Energa Wytwarzanie completed one of Poland’s largest solar farms, with 62 MW capacity, at Wielbark. The group’s 25 MW Gryf solar farm is being expanded by 68 MW, with more new PV installations nearby.

Meanwhile, the Tauron Group plans to have 3.7 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030, with construction underway on phase one of its 37 MW Myslowice solar farm.

One of Poland’s largest solar farms, 62 MW capacity, built by the Orlen Group on what it says is ‘poor quality ground’
Photo: Orlen Group 

Nuclear plans 
Poland is also aiming to build nuclear power capacity sufficient to generate 23% of electricity generation by 2040. Provisional agreements have been signed with Westinghouse in the US and South Korea’s KNHP, and potentially with France’s EDF, to develop Poland’s first large-scale nuclear power plants.

Following talks in November 2022 with US Vice President Kamala Harris and Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki announced plans for Westinghouse to be its nuclear partner, aiming to construct six large nuclear reactors with a total capacity of 6–9 GW by 2043. The first three are slated to be built on Poland’s northern Baltic coast. Construction is due to start in 2026 – an ambitious target – for start-up of the first reactor in 2033. The government also plans to have three reactors at another location inland.

Last November, Poland’s ZE PAK, state energy giant PGE and Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power signed a letter of intent to build a nuclear plant with government backing. The power station is proposed to replace ZE PAK’s brown coal plants in Patnów. France’s EDF has also submitted a proposal for a third nuclear power plant.

Private and state-owned firms are also developing nuclear plans using small modular reactors (SMRs).

At what cost? 
According to an EY study of the Polish Energy Transition Path (PKEE and EY Report), transformation of the Polish energy sector by 2030 could cost €135bn, ‘including protective measures for the mining sector related to the power and heat sectors’. However, the report points out that the required outlays ‘significantly exceed the investment possibilities of the energy companies and potential investors’.

Support for the transformation includes €70bn from the EU budget for 2021–2027, the EU Emissions Trading System mechanism (until 2030) and the National Energy Transformation Mechanism (until 2031) – but still leaves a huge investment gap.

Poland’s National Energy and Climate Plan (PNECP) envisages that the cost of modernising the country’s energy sector could reach €350bn by 2040.

Tomasz Sikorski, Chief Executive of Polish power grid operator PSE, told Reuters: ‘We need to invest some Zlotys 500bn ($116 bn) in transmission and distribution grids by 2040, to upgrade the grid in synch with the growth of the renewable energy fleet.’

Despite the ambitious renewable energy plans, Forum Energii claims that ‘modernisation of the Polish energy sector is very slow’. Furthermore, now that Russian supplies have been cut off, ‘the economy as a whole remains highly energy-intensive and increasingly dependent on fossil fuel imports… from new, often politically uncertain sources’, it says. In 2022, the cost for Poland to import crude oil, fossil gas and coal hit a record €42.6bn, almost double that in 2021.

The think tank suggests that ‘for true energy transition, the country needs realistic energy targets to motivate market players to invest to meet growing demand and make up for phase-out of fossil fuel capacity’. Joanna Mackowiak-Pandera, President of Forum Energii, told Euractiv recently: ‘It is crucial that the government, when updating the energy policy and the National Energy and Climate Action Plan, takes a holistic view of the energy balance of the whole economy from the point of view of energy demand.’

Easier said than done. Despite the IEA conducting an in-depth energy policy review of Poland (May 2022) with a raft of recommendations – aimed at decarbonising the country’s energy supply through expansion of renewable energy, introducing nuclear energy, electrification of transport, and increasing energy efficiency – pressure from the mining union is still prompting Poland to slow the rate of transition.

Coal hangs on 
Coal continues to be central to Poland’s energy policy. A large amount of financial support is given to the coal sector both for mining and power generation. According to analysis by the European Commission and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Poland’s subsidies approach €1.8bn/y, with most going to coal. Support for renewables is far lower, although support for Poland’s offshore wind programme is forecast to reach €7.8bn by 2040 and €22.5bn over the life of the programme.

However, under the social contract concluded in May 2021 between the Polish government and coal trade unions, there is an aim to gradually close all Poland’s hard coal mines by 2049. But the contract does not cover lignite or lignite-fired electricity generation. Indeed, the IEA points out: ‘The objectives of the contract are not in line with Poland’s commitments to EU climate and goals, and do not reflect the reality of coal becoming less competitive.’

Despite the uncertainty, market research firm Aurora anticipates that current coal power capacity of 27 GW will drop to 5 GW by 2030, driven by unfavourable economics, while renewable capacity is forecast to grow to 38 GW by the end of the decade, ‘if secured by existing subsidy systems’.

Poland also sees a major role for natural gas in supporting a secure transition away from coal, and the role of gas in long-term decarbonisation is not clear. So fossil fuels are still far from being eliminated from the Polish landscape, according to industry think tanks.