South Africa had targeted lifting the share of renewable energy in its power generation mix from 11% currently to 41% by 2030 by increasing onshore wind and solar capacity. However, rising demand and new additions to its ageing coal power infrastructure mean that hitting the renewables target looks increasingly unlikely, according to new research from Rystad Energy.

By 2030, power generation in South Africa is expected to increase by more than 40%, rising from approximately 210 TWh currently to 300 TWh by the end of the decade. Although significant investments have been made in advancing renewable energy capacity and paving the way for a cleaner power mix, the current pipeline of onshore wind projects is unlikely to support its ambitious targets, the study says.

At present, coal dominates South Africa’s power mix, accounting for more than 80% of electricity generation. The country’s heavy reliance on coal is further compounded by the fact that state power utility Eskom’s coal power plants have exceeded their projected 40-year lifespan, posing a significant issue in terms of both energy security and decarbonisation. As outlined in its current five-year Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement, South Africa aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to between 350mn tonnes and 420mn tonnes of CO₂ equivalent by 2030, a reduction of 10–25% from current levels. Continuing with its ageing coal fleet would impede progress toward these targets and South Africa’s commitment to decarbonisation, according to Rystad.

While its Renewable Independent Power Producer Programme (REIPPP) has been instrumental in driving renewable energy development, South Africa is currently reviewing applications for a substantial capacity of solar PV and onshore wind projects, many of which include battery storage. Despite the increased focus, South Africa is projected to generate only about 20% of its power from renewables by 2030, falling short of its target.

To facilitate the deployment of renewables, South Africa is working on improving its transmission infrastructure. The government has approved a bill that promotes private generation projects and power trading, aiming to reduce dependence on Eskom and encourage participation from the private sector. This approach will enhance competition and is expected to lower power prices for end-users over time, the study notes.

While renewables hold promise, South Africa must consider the role of gas in its energy mix, Rysad says. The National Department of Transport has granted access to gas-fired power ships as emergency supply, and there are plans to develop and utilise gas-to-power plants. Developing gas resources, such as the Luiperd and Brulpadda fields, could significantly contribute to meeting the country’s power demand.

The research notes that battery storage will also be crucial for South Africa to meet its energy demands and decarbonisation goals. If gas-to-power is not pursued, the existing coal-based capacity, including new Kusile units, would need to stay online constantly, straining the electricity system. In this case, battery storage would provide a viable alternative, but would also require more overall capacity in comparison to gas-to-power with potentially higher costs. Nonetheless, integrating more intermittent capacity, whether through batteries or gas solutions, would help reduce reliance on coal-based power especially during periods of limited solar and wind availability.

With coal power’s limitations becoming increasingly evident, the integration of renewable energy sources, complemented by flexible gas power and battery storage, is emerging as a viable path forward, the study concludes. As South Africa aims to diversify its generation mix and reduce GHG emissions, proactive measures to improve transmission infrastructure and facilitate project authorisations will be essential.

Rwanda power project funded
In other news, the Saudi Fund for Development has agreed a concessional development loan of $20mn to finance an electricity delivery project in Rwanda.

The project aims to build a network of medium and low-pressure power lines and electricity distribution transformers to provide electricity to households, public institutions and social facilities in the Kamonyi District.

This project is part of a wider Energy Access and Quality Improvement Programme, the objective of which is to improve access to reliable and cost-effective electricity services for several of the most underserved areas in the country. Electricity access in the region currently stands at 58.9%.

The Minister of Finance and Economic Planning Dr Uzziel Ndagijimana says: ‘At the completion of this project, electricity access in Kamonyi District will increase by 6.8%, thus contributing to increase economic and social development within the framework of our National Strategy for Transformation by connecting electricity to more households. It is another step towards our ultimate goal of ensuring all Rwandan citizens have access to electricity by 2024.’