I completely agree with the premise that any energy is better than none; energy is fundamental to improving quality of life, necessary for modern medicine, transportation, education and job opportunities. If the only options available to an underserved community are carbon intensive, then these should be utilised.

However, expanding energy access, particularly to electricity, must not be used by developed countries as a lazy excuse to choose expensive and polluting fossil fuels, especially given the costs of renewables have declined greatly in the past decade.

Wherever possible, the electricity provided to those lacking access should be from renewables, and it must be the responsibility of those who already enjoy the advantages of industrialisation to build the capacity and financial frameworks for countries in the global south to develop those same benefits in the cleanest, cheapest way.

Energy access solutions
An estimated 600 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa have limited or no access to electricity. This number increased in 2020 after years of progress downwards, due to COVID-19 worsening the already low energy purchasing power of many poorer countries, preventing them from importing fossil fuels. More recently, price spikes in the cost of gas are making this an unaffordable fuel source for 30 million Africans, forcing millions to revert to using biomass.

In its Africa Energy Outlook 2022 report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) finds that extending national grids is ‘the least costly and most prudent option for almost 45% of those gaining access [to energy] to 2030’. Meanwhile: ‘In rural areas, where over 80% of the electricity-deprived live, mini-grids and stand-alone systems, mostly solar based, are the most viable solutions.’

In parts of Africa, geography prevents the expansion of national grid infrastructure, making the Western model of a small number of coal-, gas-fired or nuclear power stations providing electricity for the entire population unviable.

Organisations such as the IEA therefore emphasise that Africa’s energy future lies in electricity, powered increasingly by renewables, with solar holding the greatest potential. Research by the World Bank concludes that solar mini-grids are the least costly solution to providing high-quality uninterrupted electricity to underserved villages and communities in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2030.

This is to the region’s advantage: Africa receives 60% of the best solar potential globally. Yet it has just 1% of the world’s installed solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity – despite PV being the cheapest power source for much of the continent. Indeed, the power produced by solar mini-grids could fall as low as $0.20/kWh by 2030 in Africa, making it the least-cost solution for over 60% of the population, according to the World Bank.

Research by the World Bank concludes that solar mini-grids are the least costly solution to providing high-quality uninterrupted electricity to underserved villages and communities in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2030.

Funding Sub-Saharan Africa’s clean energy
But what would the cost be for extending national grids and constructing mini-grids or stand-alone systems until universal access to modern energy in Sub-Saharan Africa is reached? The IEA’s analysis finds that it will require an investment of $25bn/y.

That’s roughly 1% of global energy investment and the cost of building just one large LNG terminal. Part of the challenge lies in requiring stronger national institutions to lay out clear access strategies, but greater international support is also crucial.

Energy investment into Africa would need to double this decade in order to achieve both energy and climate goals, reports the IEA. Two-thirds of the necessary $190bn each year from 2026 to 2030 would go to clean energy. This might sound steep, but it is only about 5% of the world’s total investment in the IEA’s Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario.

China has been funding construction of many of Africa’s coal-fired power plants; however, since announcing an end for support for coal plants abroad, the investment intended for these discontinued projects could be redirected to solar PV. If so, the IEA finds it could cover 50% of the cost of all Africa’s solar PV capacity additions to 2025.

Restoring confidence in the ‘leapfrog’ argument is key to persuading investors to fund the remainder.

Following the sun
Extending energy access through renewables, particularly solar, provides benefits in cost, access, energy security and health, and we should be careful not to dismiss the ‘leapfrog to renewables’ concept. Just because many regions employed coal then oil and gas to propel their economies does not mean it is the only or best blueprint to follow.

On the contrary, their ongoing dependence upon burning fossil fuels has created an enormous problem for humanity.

Moreover, there are plenty of examples of Sub-Saharan countries successfully ‘leapfrogging’ technologies utilised by developed nations. For instance, mobile phone penetration is very high in countries that never saw widespread adoption of landlines. This has led to an explosion in mobile wallets, skipping ‘traditional’ bank accounts and enabling financial inclusion for millions of people.

Developing countries should be encouraged to follow the most rewarding path to energy access, one that will benefit their people and our planet simultaneously, and that is led by solar PV.

The views and opinions expressed in this article are strictly those of the author only and are not necessarily given or endorsed by or on behalf of the Energy Institute.