A new energy outlook report from BloombergNEF (BNEF) finds that Australian electricity generation would need to grow seven-fold to meet expected demand if it is to become a major hydrogen exporter by 2050. To achieve this at lowest cost, wind and solar capacity would need to increase from 39 GW in 2022 to 812 GW in 2050. This electricity demand would be 169% more than forecast under the report’s net zero scenario, which says wind and solar installations would need to reach 300 GW by 2050.

‘Australia stands at the cusp of the biggest transition in its power system, ever’ says Tushna Antia, Australia Renewables Analyst at BNEF. ‘An abundance of high-quality and low-cost renewable energy resources gives Australia a real advantage in its journey to net zero, but the right policies and market settings will be imperative for orderly transition.’

Investment in Australia’s energy sector and low-carbon technologies will need to scale up rapidly for the country to reach its net zero ambitions, says BNEF. Between 2022 and 2050, over $1.9tn will need to be invested, with 95% flowing into low-carbon technologies or supportive infrastructure.

The analysis also shows that new technologies, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) as well as low-carbon hydrogen, will be ‘essential’ in decarbonising Australia’s hard-to-abate sectors, especially heavy industry. Hydrogen is seen as ‘a critical technology in applications where it is unfeasible or uneconomic to electrify’. In the net zero scenario, clean hydrogen production to meet domestic needs rises to around 3.7mn tonnes by 2050. In the hydrogen export scenario, this figure soars to around 28.5mn tonnes, meeting about 6% of global demand.

However, BNEF warns that a lack of guaranteed clean hydrogen import demand together with significant transportation challenges currently stand in the way of Australia’s hydrogen export ambitions.

The study also suggests that Australia will need to develop new supply chains for sustainable fuels and stronger policies enforcing energy efficiency to decarbonise its transport sector by 2050.

Fossil fuels will still play an important role in Australia’s economy for years to come, says BNEF. However, the analysts warn that for every $1 Australia invests in fossil fuel supply between 2022 and 2050, it will need to invest $6 in low-carbon energy sources if it is to reach its net zero goals.

Delayed take-off for hydrogen aircraft
Meanwhile, a new study from Transport & Environment (T&E) says that hydrogen jets could be cheaper to run in Europe than fossil fuel planes from 2035, provided kerosene is ‘taxed adequately’. The analysis suggests that ‘with a tax on fossil jet fuel and a price on carbon, hydrogen planes could become 2% cheaper to operate than their kerosene counterparts’. These ‘pricing measures are key to the deployment of green technologies like hydrogen planes’, T&E says.

The economic study by research group Steer, commissioned by T&E, looks at future operating costs of hydrogen planes on intra-European flights and finds that they could be an efficient, cost competitive technology to decarbonise the sector. However, aircraft manufacturer Airbus, which has three concepts for hydrogen planes, warns that the slow development of the hydrogen ecosystem could delay their 2035 launch.

Technological hurdles around the development of hydrogen planes are significant. Liquid hydrogen has low energy density relative to kerosene, meaning that a larger volume of fuel is required to power the same distance. This limits the range of these aircraft, but hydrogen planes can still provide a viable alternative to decarbonise regional and short-haul routes, which represent 50% of Europe’s aviation emissions, claims T&E.

‘There is no silver bullet to decarbonise aviation,’ comments Carlos López de la Osa, Aviation Technical Manager at T&E. ‘Green fuels, demand reduction and hydrogen will all play a role. For hydrogen planes to take off in the next decade, we need to enter the virtuous circle of regulation, investment, a fall in prices, followed by stronger uptake. But the cost must be shouldered by the aviation industry and its users, by ring fencing part of carbon and kerosene tax revenues for green tech like zero emission planes and clean fuels.’

Hydrogen truck refuelling first
In other news, Air Products has signed an agreement with Aers Energy België to develop a multi-fuel, hydrogen refuelling service station for trucks in the port of Zeebrugge. Reported to be the first commercial-scale hydrogen refuelling station in Europe with liquid hydrogen storage, it will save approximately 8,000–11,000 tCO₂e/y by displacing diesel volume, claim the partners.

World’s largest carbon-free green hydrogen plant
Meanwhile, in the Middle East, NEOM Green Hydrogen Company (NGHC) reports that it has achieved financial close on what is claimed will be the world’s largest green hydrogen production facility, at a total investment value of $8.4bn. The plant is currently being built at Oxagon, in Saudi Arabia.

An equal joint venture between ACWA Power, Air Products and NEOM, NGHC’s mega-plant will integrate up to 4 GW of solar and wind energy to produce up to 600 t/d of carbon-free hydrogen in the form of green ammonia to be used in the transport and industrial sectors globally by the end of 2026.

NGHC has also secured an exclusive 30-year off-take agreement with Air Products for all the green ammonia produced at the facility, which it says ‘will unlock the economic potential of renewable energy across the entire value chain’.