A study by Transport & Environment (T&E) reports widespread consensus among European truck manufacturers and industry stakeholders that battery electric vehicles (BEVs) look set to play a dominant role in decarbonising the road freight sector on the road to net zero.

Major truck makers including Daimler, Leyland DAF, Renault Trucks, Scania, MAN and Volvo Trucks are focused on making BEVs mainstream across all vehicle segments, along with new entrants such as Dennis Eagle, Tevva, Volta and others targeting the urban/short haul and municipal vehicles markets, according to a more recent report by Element Energy for T&E.

The speed of transition varies in different markets and there is controversy about the rate of change forecast in mainland Europe.

UK forges ahead 
The UK has set 2035 for phasing-out sales of all new ‘non-zero emission’ heavy goods vehicles (HGVs) up to 26 tonnes, and 2040 for HGVs over 26 tonnes. But T&E suggests that ‘ambitious intermediate targets need to be set to transition the industry in the most cost-effective way to meet legally binding climate targets and carbon budgets’.

In the near-term, the study predicts that well ahead of the UK’s current 2035/2040 phase-out dates, 65–75% of the UK’s rigid HGVs and 30–35% of articulated transport will be able to operate sustainably and productively with BEVs, without reliance on future charging infrastructure anywhere other than their home depot. ‘Together, these back-to-base transport operations could capture over half of UK HGVs which currently account for around 25–35% of all road freight greenhouse gas emissions,’ says T&E.

T&E sees early electrification as a ‘golden opportunity’ for UK policymakers and commercial visionaries to de-risk the transition for fleet operators. It will also close the cost gap with diesel for the larger HGVs via balanced demand (ideally with support of user incentives and sufficient charging infrastructure) and supply (with benefit of zero emission vehicles (ZEV) mandates).

According to the Element Energy calculations, BEVs will become the most cost-effective option versus diesel if some key assumptions are made by 2030:

• Electricity at 22 p/kWh (if by 2030 the wholesale price is set by renewables not gas).
• Diesel costs of £1.40–1.55 /litre (excluding VAT).
• Battery costs of £80–130 /kWh.
• 22 kW DC chargers costing £2,700 each and 350 kW DC chargers costing £135,000, including installation.
• Grid connection costs averaging £200/kW (with sites close to existing grid infrastructure possibly below £100/kW).
• Battery specific energy of 230 Wh/kg.

What’s more, if UK policymakers speed up the transition to support decarbonisation, the study suggests ‘costs could be cut, supporting UK economic growth and enhancing profitability for operators’.

ZEV mandates in the light-duty vehicle sector (ie vans) are scheduled for deployment from 2024. T&E suggests that these mandates need to be deployed for HGVs as well, ‘to ensure that manufacturers invest quickly in ramped-up production capacity and provide sufficient ZEVs for operators eager to reap the benefits of a BEV fleet’. With this in mind, T&E calls for the UK government to set ambitious interim targets in the form of ZEV mandates from 2025 for new HGV sales.

The European picture 
Unfortunately, the transition picture lacks similar momentum in the European Union (EU) when it comes to truck pollution. Alarmingly, Feder Unterlohner, Freight Manager at T&E, claims: ‘Without more stringent targets, there will be a glut of polluting diesel lorries still on our roads for decades to come.’

According to T&E analysis, polluting trucks could continue to be sold in mainland Europe after 2040, in line with a revised EU plan which environmental campaigners say ‘would make the bloc’s net-zero climate goal impossible’. T&E claims that the proposed 90% CO₂ reduction target for truck-makers ‘virtually ensures that diesel freight trucks would still be on the road 10 years later, in 2050’. And it has urged MEPs and EU member states to set a tighter deadline of 2035 as the zero emissions deadline.

Unterlohner argues that the failure to set a deadline for polluting trucks ‘is a craven concession to truck manufacturers’. He predicts that by 2035 all new electric lorries will be cheaper to run than diesels, while ‘driving as far and carrying as much’. But he is concerned that without a clear EU deadline, ‘diesel trucks will pollute our lungs and the planet for years longer than necessary’.

‘Without more stringent [EU] targets, there will be a glut of polluting diesel lorries still on our roads for decades to come.’ – Feder Unterlohner, Freight Manager at T&E

According to T&E calculations, truck makers would have to reduce the average CO₂ emissions of their new vehicles by just 45% (compared to 2019/2020 levels) under the new EU proposal as opposed to a 100% reduction. What’s more, the EU’s 2030 target lags behind truck makers’ own plans. T&E insists that European Commission (EC) lawmakers should mandate a 65% cut by 2030, which is equivalent to the zero emissions sales goals already announced by Daimler Trucks and Volvo Trucks.

The EC has also proposed a mandate that all new city buses in the EU should be zero emissions by 2030. T&E welcomed the extension of climate targets to this particular transport sector but suggested that an even earlier deadline of 2027 was needed to ensure that vehicle makers keep up with the demand from cities for clean buses. In line with trucks, new coaches will need to reduce emissions by 90% in 2040.

‘Ambitious EU climate rules are driving the electrification of cars and are badly needed for trucks,’ says Unterlohner.

Trucks powered by batteries, hydrogen fuel cells and hydrogen combustion – where existing engine technology is used – would count as zero emissions under the EU plan. The climate rules would apply to all HGVs, with the exception of some special types such as construction trucks, ambulances or fire trucks, which account for about 10% of heavy-duty vehicles sold in Europe.

DAF XD electric truck – electrification is seen by T&E as a ‘golden opportunity’ for UK policymakers and commercial visionaries to de-risk the transition for fleet operators
Photo: DAF 

EU debate pending 
The European Parliament and EU member states are scheduled to debate the proposal before agreeing on the final law later this year. Interestingly, although trucks account for just 2% of the vehicles on the road, they are responsible for almost 30% of EU road transport CO₂ emissions, according to greenhouse gas (GHG) data from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

Road transport and heavy-duty vehicles are also one of the largest sources of particulate matter and nitrogen oxide (NO_x) pollution, which are estimated to cause about 350,000 premature deaths per year in the EU, according to the European Environment Agency.

In a letter to the EC, a broad coalition of 44 companies, including Siemens, Maersk, Unilever and PepsiCo, have called for a 2035 deadline for zero emissions trucks to fully replace the fossil-powered truck fleet in time for the EU to reach climate neutrality by 2050. The coalition suggests that this deadline would create ‘more investment certainty for vehicle manufacturers to increase their electric and green hydrogen offerings’.

But it concedes that some niche vehicle manufacturers, such as construction trucks, could be given until 2040 to comply.

According to Michelle Grose, Vice President, Global Logistics and Fulfilment at Unilever: ‘Decarbonising our logistics is crucial to reach our net zero goal,' claiming the company has ‘made some great progress on limiting our emissions through critical efficiencies and reducing how many trucks we have on the road, but as an industry we could do more’.

Torben Carlsen, CEO of DFDS, a leading European transport and logistics company, also acknowledges: ‘Decarbonising heavy transportation by 2035 is realistic but requires ambitious decisions and significant investment.’ DFDS has 125 electric trucks in operation, with the remainder to come in 2023. However, Carlsen admits: ‘Challenges will remain without a speedy deployment of charging infrastructures and refuelling infrastructure. To succeed in this transition, we need an ambitious target on zero emissions trucks by 2035 and sufficient, timely electrical grid capacity.’

Role of e-fuels is also contested 
Furthermore, T&E analysed how trucks running on synthetic fuels (e-fuels) will compare to BEVs by 2035 on both total cost and lifetime emissions. It found, controversially, that ‘e-fuels make no economic or environmental sense in truck’.

According to its estimates, buying and refuelling a new diesel truck in 2035 with pure e-diesel would cost 47% more than an equivalent BEV. T&E maintains that ‘even in the most favourable case for e-diesel’ (ie in second-hand trucks), e-diesel would not be cost competitive ‘because the higher upfront purchase costs of BEVs are quickly offset by their lower energy and maintenance costs’. The cost of e-diesel is expected to be 52% more than fossil diesel in 2035.

T&E suggests that BEVs bought in 2035 and charged with EU grid electricity could save 86% of GHG emissions over their lifecycle relative to conventional diesel trucks.

Moreover, T&E reckons that green hydrogen will ‘likely remain scarce in the medium term’; while diverting e-fuels to trucks ‘could jeopardise the transition of hard-to-abate sectors, such as aviation and shipping’. Apparently, oil industry modelling forecasts that e-fuels could power up to 6% of EU trucks in 2035. But T&E argues that using e-fuels for trucks is ‘inefficient and unnecessary as cheaper and cleaner zero-emission alternatives exist’.

Although some tout biofuels as a climate solution for road transport, T&E argues that ‘the damage to food security, biodiversity and climate associated with food- and feed-based biofuels is already well documented’. Furthermore, it notes that advanced or waste-based biofuels that are supposed to be more sustainable than their predecessors, still raise many concerns among green lobbies.

To the contrary, FuelsEurope, a key oil lobby, claims there are enough advanced biofuels to decarbonise road transport, citing a study by Imperial College London Consultants commissioned by CONCAWE, the fuel industry’s research group.

Finally, T&E suggests that the total cost of ownership of trucks running on e-fuels is likely to be higher for a truck running on 100% e-diesel than a BEV with equivalent operational capabilities.

The hotly contested debate around e-fuels is likely to continue for some years to come on the road to net zero in the heavy transport sector, as cost is a crucial factor for hard-pressed operators.