UPDATED 1 Sept: The EI library in London is temporarily closed to the public, as a precautionary measure in light of the ongoing COVID-19 situation. The Knowledge Service will still be answering email queries via email , or via live chats during working hours (09:15-17:00 GMT). Our e-library is always open for members here: eLibrary , for full-text access to over 200 e-books and millions of articles. Thank you for your patience.
New Energy World™
New Energy World™ embraces the whole energy industry as it connects and converges to address the decarbonisation challenge. It covers progress being made across the industry, from the dynamics under way to reduce emissions in oil and gas, through improvements to the efficiency of energy conversion and use, to cutting-edge initiatives in renewable and low-carbon technologies.
Sunny forecast for EU solar market
18/1/2023
6 min read
Feature
The European solar energy market is gathering pace as European Union (EU) member states seek better energy security following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the resulting high energy prices. New Energy World’s Brian Davis gives insight into a new report on EU solar prospects for this imperative decade of transition.
A landmark emergency EU law supporting rapid solar installations came into force at the start of this year, to encourage renewable energy development in the face of the current energy crisis.
From January 2023, EU countries will be able to deploy solar projects more quickly. The eagerly awaited move comes in response to record high energy prices. Just before Christmas, EU ministers adopted an emergency piece of legislation which can enable more solar energy to be installed in time for next winter.
Interestingly, the move marks the first time that the EU has used emergency powers to support renewable energy.
Following solar industry calls for an emergency booster to complement EU crisis action on gas in the wake of high prices following Russia’s war on Ukraine, EU countries can now legally limit the long and bureaucratic processes often required for solar installations. The new deadline has been set at three months for permitting procedures for solar on artificial surfaces. Projects under 50 kW can benefit from an even shorter planning cap of one month.
Meanwhile, in the UK discussions are also underway to accelerate the time-consuming planning permission for solar installations, as well as remove the moratorium on onshore wind farms introduced by former Prime Minister David Cameron in 2015 in response to vocal NIMBY (not in my backyard) campaigners.
What’s more, the prospects for solar power development in Europe over the coming years look bright, with proposed solar photovoltaic (PV) deployment targeted to account for 320 GW by 2025 and 600 GW by 2030 – doubling the solar share of energy renewables to 45% by the end of the decade.
SolarPower Europe points out in its new European Solar Market Outlook 2022–2026 that this will be no mean feat. ‘There are still barriers to fast deployment in the form of market design. Right now, we are operating with a design that reflects our energy world of yesterday, not our renewables-based future,’ maintains Kadri Simson, European Commissioner of Energy in the introduction to the report. For this reason, there are calls for radical reform of the electricity market.
To boost supply-side opportunities, SolarEurope has launched the EU Solar PV Industry Alliance, targeted at expanding manufacturing capacities and innovation in Europe in the face of severe competition from China and the Far East.
How the EU stands
EU installed PV capacity stood at 41.4 GW in 2022, double that of 2020. Further annual market growth is expected ‘to beat all expectations’, exceeding 50 GW deployment in 2023. Solar is seen to be at the heart of the EU’s energy system. However, this will require thorough planning, which needs to be reflected in the upcoming 2023 revision of the EU member states’ 2030 National Energy and Climate Plans (NECP) – due in June 2023.
Surprisingly, current NECPs severely underestimate solar. But on the positive side, SolarPower analysis of data suggests that ‘over three quarters of EU countries will have reached their 2030 targets five years early, and all of them at least three years early.’
‘The solar wave in the coming years will be nothing short of seismic,’ claims Walburga Hemetsberger, CEO of SolarPower Europe.
Key issues for solar development
Let’s look at some of the areas highlighted in the report more closely.
First, there is forecast to be ‘dramatic expansion’ of the pool of solar installers. Admittedly, there is still a significant skill shortage and need for more qualified technicians to install and grid-connect solar systems. The number of people full-time employed in the solar sector in the EU will need to double from 466,000 today to more than 1mn in 2030.
Next, there is the need to maintain regulatory stability. This is a thorny issue. According to Hemetsberger: ‘While Europeans want solar and investors are ready, the wrong signals from state market interventions can significantly slow down today’s gigantic solar momentum. The European Commission (EC) should issue clear guidance to support proper implementation across Europe.’
There is also the issue of grid connection and flexibility. Solar stakeholders (and wind farm developers, for that matter) are increasingly concerned about grid connection issues, both on the transmission and distribution levels. ‘We need to take this challenge seriously, and also enable flexibility through setting indicative 2030 targets for energy storage,’ states the report.
‘The solar wave in the coming years will be nothing short of seismic.’ – Walburga Hemetsberger, CEO, SolarPower Europe
Another key concern is the need to streamline administrative procedures. Here again, permitting is not just an issue for wind farm operators. Solar also faces administrative barriers that cannot be taken lightly. SolarEurope suggests: ‘To absorb the necessary solar power plants to come, we need improved spatial planning and permitting procedures, which have to be designed in harmony with people and nature.’
The report maintains that the EU Clean Energy package should help facilitate easier grid connection of solar PV through improved network development plan practices and modernised remuneration schemes for distribution system operators. But it warns: ‘The implementation of these provisions at a national level are delayed or incomplete.’ In addition, EU and national policymakers should also develop clear strategies to boost flexibility and battery storage, setting indicative 2030 targets for storage at both EU and national level – along with removing double taxation of energy storage technologies.
There is also an ambitious call to make solar mandatory for new and existing commercial, industrial and public buildings, as proposed by the EC under REPowerEU. This move would provide grid operators with ‘much needed’ visibility and predictability to plan – but it comes with a big cost. Nevertheless, this measure would accelerate the integration of solar power in distribution grids and is already underway in several German federal states.
Finally, there is a need to reinforce access to green and reliable manufacturing. ‘Europe needs to be able to source solar products sustainably and from reliable supply chains. The EU cannot exchange one dependency for another’, says SolarEurope.
Given Europe’s recent need to find new sources of gas after Russian sources ceased following the Ukraine invasion, the report argues: ‘The EU cannot exchange one dependency for another. A powerful domestic solar industry, at the centre of a diversified, global solar supply chain, is critical.’
Fortunately, Europe seems to be responding to the solar sector’s calls for action. The EC managed to set a far higher 2030 target as part of the EU Solar Strategy published under the REPowerEU strategy in May 2022. There is a new Solar Skills initiative; speedier permitting is being addressed; and the EU is also looking into ways to reinforce sustainable, responsible and transparent supply chains.
Speed is of the essence. ‘The long-term market is much higher than policymakers anticipate, and the first European companies have already begun to set their eyes on US solar manufacturing capacities in response to their strong renewables-targeted incentive package,’ states the report.’ EU plans in 1H2023 focus on revamping state subsidy rules for critical manufacturing. And a new European Competitiveness Strategy seems set to define Europe’s place in the global solar race.
European manufacturers like Meyer Berger in Germany compete against tough Far East competition for the rapidly growing solar power market
Photo: Meyer Berger
Leading EU solar initiatives
Germany was Europe’s prime solar market in 2022 and connected 7.9 GW compared with 6 GW the year before. Rooftop solar installations are to become mandatory on the roofs of residential and commercial buildings in several German states in 2023 in a bid to reach the country’s 215 GW target of installed solar capacity by 2030. Installation of solar panels on the roofs of buildings is already mandatory in Baden-Wuerttemberg, whilst Berlin, Hamburg, Rhineland-Palatinate, Bavaria, Schleswig-Holstein and Lower Saxony have adopted laws introducing the obligation as of 1 January 2023.
Spain ranks second in Europe, increasing its newly installed solar capacity to 7.5 GW in 2022 against 4.8 GW added capacity in 2021. The market took off after a prohibitive tax was cancelled in 2019, with significant renewables boost due to the energy crisis. Under the current energy market conditions, developers are opting for projects which sell their power on the free market rather than government-run tenders.
Poland comes third, with an additional 4.9 GW in 2022 compared with 3 GW added in 2021. The shift from net-metering to net-billing since April 2022 led to a rush of installations in 1Q2022 in the small-scale rooftop segment. Even with a less attractive support framework for small-scale solar, high electricity prices and severe energy security concerns since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have sustained the rapid pace of solar development in Poland.
The Netherlands continues to up its game in terms of solar power and installed 4 GW in 2022, up 11% from the previous year. Driven by an attractive net-metering policy, the residential segment contributed the lion’s share of this growth, with 1.8 GW of capacity additions. The Dutch market claims top spot in Europe when it comes to solar capacity per capita.
France comes fifth in Europe’s PV market, with 2.7 GW of annual additions. Although there was a 2% decrease since record-breaking 2021 performance, when its market grew 218% year-on-year. An increase in solar prices and difficulties in access to land in 2022 led many developers to put projects on hold until economic and regulatory conditions improve.
Italy places sixth in the EU solar power stakes, with 2.6 GW of added capacity in 2022 and 174% year-on-year growth. The small-scale PV segment has bolstered the market, says the report, thanks to the country’s Superbonus 110% incentive scheme, and high electricity prices which have boosted the attractiveness of ‘self-consumption’ business models. Permitting and identification of suitable land remains a key challenge for larger PV projects, although simplified procedures are being implemented.