UPDATED 1 Sept: The EI library in London is temporarily closed to the public, as a precautionary measure in light of the ongoing COVID-19 situation. The Knowledge Service will still be answering email queries via email , or via live chats during working hours (09:15-17:00 GMT). Our e-library is always open for members here: eLibrary , for full-text access to over 200 e-books and millions of articles. Thank you for your patience.
New Energy World™
New Energy World™ embraces the whole energy industry as it connects and converges to address the decarbonisation challenge. It covers progress being made across the industry, from the dynamics under way to reduce emissions in oil and gas, through improvements to the efficiency of energy conversion and use, to cutting-edge initiatives in renewable and low-carbon technologies.
SAFs could make up 7.5% of jet fuel by 2030
14/9/2022
News
Sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) are one of few low carbon technologies with the potential to help decarbonise the aviation sector and are the only feasible option in the near term, according to BloombergNEF (BNEF).
In its 2022 Sustainable Aviation Fuel Outlook report, BNEF notes that 2022 has been a pivotal year as growth in the market picks up pace, with key policies to boost adoption progressing through their respective legislatures and the number of forward purchase agreements surging as airlines demonstrate their commitment to the clean fuel. New projects have also boosted anticipated production capacity.
However, scarcity of supply, competition with renewable diesel for resources and lack of technological diversification remain hurdles to the progression, the report says. If unaddressed, these will lead to substantial bottlenecks and could cause the aviation industry to fall short of its ambitious goals.
According to BNEF, 38 of the world’s top airlines have committed to net zero emissions, either by 2050 or earlier. Furthermore, almost 30 have set some form of SAF adoption target, such as 10% of fuel consumption by 2030. While the US and Europe continue to lead the market, other nations are beginning to set out policies, roadmaps and targets to support domestic SAF adoption, including Canada, China and Japan.
Demand for SAF will reach 7bn gallons, or 5% global jet fuel demand, by 2030 in BNEF’s Economic Transition Scenario, where changes are driven by techno-economic trends and market forces and assume no new policies are enacted. In the Accelerated Policy Scenario, demand reaches 10.6bn gallons, or 7.5% of jet fuel use.
Despite growing interest and targets from the aviation industry, SAF supply remains scarce and highly concentrated among a few producers. A multitude of projects to bring new capacity online are planned for the next five years. If all come to fruition, SAF capacity could exceed 2.5bn gallons by 2026. If these plants maximise their SAF yields instead of renewable diesel, this figure could reach 4bn gallons. Finally, if all planned renewable diesel projects were adapted to maximise SAF production instead, annual capacity could reach 7.6bn gallons, the report notes.
