In late 2021, there was much debate in Ireland about the security of the electricity network. Increasing demand was driven largely by the fastest growing economy in Europe and in part by the inward investment of US technology companies choosing Ireland as home for their data centres, which could make up nearly a quarter of Ireland’s electricity demand by 2030. Now with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the focus has expanded to include the security of natural gas. 

Ireland’s gas supply

At present, over 50% of Ireland’s electrical power is generated from natural gas, one third of all Irish homes are heated by natural gas and two thirds of Dublin homes. Around 30% of Ireland’s gas comes from the Corrib field off the west coast of Ireland, with the balance coming from the interconnectors with Moffat in Scotland. Corrib is in decline and has around 10 years remaining at current rates of production. Ireland has no LNG import terminal, no gas storage facilities within the country and now has a ban on new gas exploration offshore. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, and its impact on European and UK gas markets, has further underlined Ireland’s supply and cost control vulnerability.

Tom O’Brien, Chief Executive of Nephin Energy, which owns the Corrib gas field, sees the response to Ireland’s energy security as having several strands: ‘There is an old saying, “No one person can whistle a symphony; it takes a whole orchestra to play one.” For the foreseeable future Ireland will need gas as well as renewables to meet its energy requirements. Our energy mix needs to be reliable, affordable and sustainable. In recent years the focus has been on sustainability and Ireland’s over-reliance on fossil fuels.’

Energy security

‘Due to the current energy crises, we are starting to have a conversation about Ireland’s energy security,’ O’Brien continues. ‘Candidly, a lot of the issues we are encountering now are because we have never really had this conversation in Ireland in the past. The government, for example, has made serious energy policy decisions, such as banning domestic gas exploration or coming out against LNG infrastructure, before they have carried out any kind of energy security review or developed any sort of coherent energy security policy. Instead, we are pursuing policies that make us 100% reliant on international gas supplies – the very gas we will need to provide the baseload support for our growing renewables sector.’ 

Siobhán McHugh, CEO of Ireland’s Demand Side Response Association, who has wide experience in the Irish electricity industry, says that energy security – in its simplest terms – means maintaining energy supply for the economy and our daily lives. ‘The biggest challenge is Ireland’s exposure to the external fossil fuel markets. We don’t have a huge amount of indigenous energy. Looking across electricity, heat and transport, we are hugely exposed to the gas and oil markets. The answer is further utilising indigenous energy sources, such as wind and solar, and diversifying supply.’

Peter O’Shea, Head of Corporate and Regulatory Affairs at ESB, Ireland’s largest energy utility, says that there are short-, medium- and long-term considerations for energy security. ‘In the short and medium terms, it is a system operation and regulation issue, and longer term it is a policy issue. The climate action plan for 80% renewable electricity by 2030 is achievable but challenging, especially from a security of supply perspective. The key challenge is to ensure a back-up for renewables and to take a holistic view of the energy system in its totality.’

Electricity grid security

Much of the focus over the past year has been on the security of the electricity grid. McHugh observes that the electricity system is changing fundamentally: ‘The traditional energy model involved large generators transporting power through the wires to my house, my business and my community. We are going to have more renewables – there is an intermittency challenge, but it’s been proven to be manageable – and a more decentralised system. We will generate more power at the distribution level with solar and small-scale wind, interacting with batteries and demand side response – a whole new power eco-system. The new system will need to be much more flexible and we will see the rise of the prosumer, with their electric vehicles, roof-top solar panels and heat pumps. We will need to put the active customer at the centre and ensure policy and regulation frameworks support that move to a whole new system.’

‘The climate action plan for 80% renewable electricity by 2030 is achievable but challenging, especially from a security of supply perspective. The key challenge is to ensure a back-up for renewables and to take a holistic view of the energy system in its totality.’ – Peter O’Shea, Head of Corporate and Regulatory Affairs at ESB

O’Shea highlights the transformation of the grid that is being driven by Ireland’s target of 80% of electricity from renewable sources by 2030. ‘The electricity system is big and complex. For security of supply you need a secure generation system, with secure fuel sources and secure transmission and distribution systems. The policies for each of those individual parts of the system are clear. In generation policy it is to replace fossil fuels with renewable sources in a sensible and pragmatic way towards the 80% target by 2030 and further beyond that date.’ 

Paul Deane, Senior Researcher at University College Cork, has been looking at the 80% renewable electricity target. ‘This is the best route to reducing our emissions, but it does not negate the need for fossil fuel plants. We need to build around 2,000 MW of flexible gas-fired generation in Ireland over the next 10 years.’ Deane is concerned about the current ability of the market to incentivise that investment. ‘We need that extra thermal capacity to meet our renewable targets: that is the challenge,’ he adds. 

Energy transition

As with energy security, much of the focus on the energy transition in Ireland has been on electricity. The sector has done the bulk of the heavy lifting to date in terms of emissions reductions. O’Shea observes that there is an expectation that the energy transition will be linear, but he says that transitions tend to be lumpy. ‘What we are seeing now are some of those lumps coming through. We have to now focus on the security of the generation and fuel elements of the system. Fuel diversity has been an important characteristic of the Irish system historically and we need to factor in the reduced diversity which is now coming at us.’ 

Looking at what this means for security of supply, O’Shea says: ‘In relation to natural gas, while I’m not sure about its long-term future, it is essential to securing the electricity system at least to 2030 and in the longer term. But non-emissions gas – such as hydrogen – will also have a major role. We also need to ensure that the consumer becomes part of the transition.’

Renowned Irish economist, Colum McCarthy, says that there is a tendency in Ireland to confuse targets with policies. ‘Targets also tend to be changeable and it’s not linear in terms of the cost curve. Once you go beyond 60% it gets increasingly costly – there is a perception that it is costless but it’s not. We now face a huge bill for gas-fired plants and a lot of high-voltage lines, which we have to do. We need a more coherent policy and not just targets.’

Nuclear power

McCarthy raises the question of nuclear power in the Irish media over the decades. Ireland has no nuclear power and public opinion has always been against its development. ‘It now looks like there will be smaller scale nuclear technology, 300 to 400 MW, available in 10 years. Nuclear will probably now come into the mix,’ he says. 

Deane is not so bullish about the prospects of nuclear in Ireland: ‘I’m not a fan of nuclear, but I’m also not a fan of climate change. We need to be open to all options, even those we might not like. Smaller nuclear is probably 10 to 15 years away and I can’t see it becoming commercially available for some time. My neighbour can’t get planning for a garage, so getting planning for a 400 MW nuclear reactor might be difficult. Trust will be the challenge in Ireland. We should consider nuclear, but it shouldn’t stop what we are currently doing.’

An all-electric future?

There was a consensus forming in the Irish energy sector about five years ago that we would be moving towards an all-electric future. While electricity is still central to the government’s climate action ambitions, the decarbonisation of the gas network has moved to centre stage. O’Shea summarises the thinking at present: ‘In the short and medium terms there is no question that natural gas is critical to system security. Looking longer-term, that is more difficult if we are to set a net zero strategy as gas is a carbon fuel and will need to be replaced by “no-emissions” gases. Looking at future options for no-emission gases, we see green hydrogen produced using renewable electricity to electrolyse water as being a key element.’

O’Shea says that green hydrogen could also potentially provide storage options and the basis for system back-up when the wind does not blow or the sun does not shine and it holds potential to decarbonise those parts of the system which electrification cannot reach. O’Brien reinforces this, concluding that: ‘We should start by making the best use of what infrastructure we have. Ireland is looking to repurpose the gas network to take renewable gas and hydrogen.’

The debate on Ireland’s energy future is now top of the political agenda and the Russian invasion of Ukraine will only accelerate the drive towards replacing fossil fuels with renewable electricity and cleaner gas sources.