Given that Russia accounted for about 45% of the European Union’s gas imports in 2021 – importing over 380mn m³/d of gas by pipeline from Russia (equivalent to 140bn m³/y), the IEA’s plan is designed to reduce the EU’s reliance on Russian gas by over one third in a year.

The plan suggests a number of measures, including turning more to non-Russian gas suppliers, drawing on other energy sources and accelerating efforts to encourage consumers, business and industry to use clean and efficient alternatives to natural gas.

The proposed measures are aligned with the EU’s European Green Deal and ‘pave the way for further emissions reductions in the years to come’, says IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. ‘Russia’s use of natural gas resources as an economic and political weapon shows Europe needs to act quickly to be ready to face considerable uncertainty over Russian gas supplies next winter,’ he stated.

The IEA recognises that Russia’s invasion comes against a background of already tight global oil markets and heightened price volatility. Russia is the world’s third largest oil producer and the largest gas exporter, with 5mn b/d crude exports representing about 12% of global trade.

The 10 key points under the plan are:

• No new gas supply contracts with Russia. Since 15bn m³/y of gas import contracts with Gazprom are set to expire by the end of 2022, the IEA suggests that the EU should diversify its gas supplies and contracts towards other sources, leveraging the options for imports provided by its large LNG and pipeline infrastructure. 
• Replace Russian supplies with gas from alternative sources inside and outside the EU, like Norway and Azerbeijan. This measure could increase imports by over 10bn m³ from 2021. In theory, LNG inflows could be boosted by 60bn m³ compared with 2021 levels.
• Introduce a harmonised EU approach to minimum gas storage obligations to enhance market resilience, together with robust market-based capacity allocation mechanisms. 
• Accelerate deployment of new wind and solar projects. A fast-track approach could deliver another 20 TWh of wind and solar over the next year, says the IEA. While short-term grants covering 20% of installation costs could double the pace of investment, raising renewable generation to 35 TWh.
• Maximise generation from existing low-emissions sources like bioenergy and nuclear. Returning EU reactors to safe operation and starting commercial operations at Finland’s new reactor could raise nuclear power generation to 20 TWh in 2022. 
• Enact short-term measures to shelter vulnerable electricity consumers from high prices, including temporary tax measures on electricity companies’ windfall profits. Measures to tax windfall profits have already been adopted in Italy and Romania in 2022. 
• Speed up the replacement of gas boilers with heat pumps. These measures could reduce gas use for heating by an additional 2bn m³ in one year, says the IEA.
• Accelerate energy efficiency improvements in buildings and industry.
• Encourage a temporary thermostat adjustment by consumers. Turning down thermostats by just 1^oC would reduce gas demand by 10bn m³/y.
• Step up efforts to diversify and decarbonise sources of power system flexibility – notably improving seasonal flexibility, demand shifting and peak saving. The IEA suggests: ‘Governments need to step up efforts to develop and deploy workable, sustainable and cost-effective ways to manage the flexibility needs of European power systems.

In addition, there are fuel switching options in the near-term, switching away from gas use in the power sector via an increased call on Europe’s coal-fired fleet or by using alternative fuels – primarily liquid fuels – within existing gas-fired power plants. The IEA estimates that a temporary shift from gas to coal- or oil-fired generation could reduce gas demand for power from about 28 bn m³ before there was an overall increase in the EU’s energy-related emissions.

If the fuel-switching option were to be fully exercised in addition to complete implementation of the 10-point plan, it would result in a total annual reduction of EU imports of gas from Russia of more than 80bn m³ – well over half, along with a modest reduction in overall emissions.