Robust global energy demand to 2030, despite efficiency gains Global energy dema ...

Robust global energy demand to 2030, despite efficiency gains Global energy demand will continue to grow over the next twenty years, albeit at a slowing annual rate, says BP in its latest Energy Outlook 2030. The document also predicts increasing energy efficiency and strong growth for renewable energy. Non-OECD countries will make up almost all of the growth in global energy demand, which will increase by 39% by 2030, or 1.6% annually, according to the document. Consumption in OECD countries is expected to rise by just 4% in total over the period. Global energy will remain dominated by fossil fuels, which are forecast to account for 81% of global energy demand by 2030, BP forecasts, down about 6% from current levels. The period should also see increased fuel switching, with more gas and renewables used at the expense of coal and oil. That gradual switching should see renewables, including biofuels, continue to be the fastest growing sources of energy globally, rising at an annual rate of more than 8%, says the report. It also forecasts that the increased use of unconventional sources of fuel, including shale oil and gas, oil sands and deep water oil, will see the West become energy self sufficient by 2030, with Asia relying increasingly on the Middle East. Oil, the world’s leading fuel today, will continue to lose market share throughout the period, although demand for hydrocarbon liquids will be up by 18% from 2010. This means the world will still need to bring on enough liquids to replace declining output from existing sources. The report forecasts that carbon emissions are likely to rise by about 28% by 2030 - slower than the current rate of energy demand growth due to the rapid growth of renewables and natural gas. The report states that only if more aggressive policies than currently envisioned are introduced, could global carbon emissions begin to decline by 2030. By 2030, today’s energy importers will need to import 40% more than they do today. Europe’s energy deficit remains at current levels for oil and coal but will increase by some two thirds for natural gas, supplied by liquid natural gas and pipelines from the Former Soviet Union. Visit www.bp.com to access the full report.