New white paper calculates energy technology build rate required to meet UK net zero 2050 target

In the next 30 years, the UK power sector needs to build 48 natural gas units, 66 biomass facilities, six nuclear power stations and 6,520 offshore wind turbines, as well undefined unit numbers for 20 GW of onshore wind, 80 GW of solar, and 15–30 GW of energy storage in order to meet the UK’s net zero 2050 target, according to a new white paper from Atkins.

The study calculates that the UK is currently achieving 43% of the required build rate and says the future energy system will rely heavily on three industries still in their infancy – carbon capture and storage (CCS), energy storage and hydrogen production.

The white paper’s findings followed analysis of the Committee for Climate Change (CCC) Net Zero scenario, which estimates that the UK needs to build 9–12 GW/y for the next 30 years, and predicts power in 2050 will be generated by nuclear (11%); wind and solar (58%); combined cycle gas turbines (CCGT) with carbon capture and storage (CCS) (22%); and bioenergy with CCS (6%). The paper also concludes that these percentages will be subject to change due to factors including a higher need for low carbon firm power (ie not intermittent), rising system costs and industrial capability.

The major challenges of creating significant CCS, energy storage and hydrogen production capacity are also highlighted, and the paper calls for urgent government investment to ensure that the required build rate can be achieved and any risk of relying on new technologies can be assessed. In addition, it is recommended that a single government body or ‘Energy System Architect’ is established to plan and optimise the 2050 energy system, and to evaluate whole life cost.

Dr David Cole, Market Director for Power Generation Assets, Nuclear and Power at Atkins, says: ‘Market intervention in the UK offshore wind industry saw the cost of construction and electricity come down, resulting in the UK now being a global leader in deploying renewables. Similar intervention is now required across nuclear, new technologies and other energy sources so that the UK energy industry can construct the above number of facilities in enough time. We must replace almost all our current generating capacity and build as much again, and to put this in context, the highest we’ve reached was 6 GW in 2012 of gas and renewables infrastructure. The longer we wait, the higher these numbers will rise. In the midst of a global crisis, it can be overwhelming to think of future targets, but climate change is not going to fade away and 30 years is not a long time – we must act now; the government must act now.’