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Annual carbon emissions rose to highest ever level in 2017

Global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions reached a record yearly high of 32.5 gigatonnes in 2017, due to a rise in global energy demand that was mainly met by fossil fuel use. This is at odds with the decline in emissions that needs to begin before 2020 to reach global climate change targets.

The rise of 1.4% in energy-related emissions also bucks the trend of the previous three years which all saw emissions remain constant at 32.1 gigatonnes. The global demand for energy in 2017 rose by 2.1% on 2016 levels – over twice the 2016 growth rate of 0.9%.

The figures come from the International Energy Agency’s (IEA’s) latest report, which also ascribes the rise in emissions to a slowdown in energy efficiency improvements last year. Gains in energy efficiency were one of the key reasons for emissions remaining flat in 2014, 2015 and 2016 while global GDP continued to rise, along with other factors including growing renewable power generation and switches from coal to natural gas.

‘The significant growth in global  energy-related carbon dioxide emissions reached a record yearly high of 32.5 gigatonnes in 2017, due to a rise in global energy demand that was mainly met by fossil fuel use. This is at odds with the decline in emissions that needs to begin before 2020 to reach global climate change targets.

Despite renewables meeting the largest portion of energy demand growth by ‘fuel’ type in 2017, at 25%, fossil fuels – coal, oil and natural gas – accounted for 70% of the growth in world energy demand (due, in part, to low prices).

The report finds that in 2017 oil demand grew by 1.6% – twice the average annual rate – driven by the transport sector and mainly by an increasing number of trucks and SUVs in large economies. Petrochemical demand also increased.

Natural gas consumption rose by 3%, with China by itself accounting for a third of this growth. Demand for coal, the most emissions-intensive fossil fuel, rose by 1%, due to a rise in coal-fired electricity generation in Asia – reversing the declines in coal use seen over the last few years.

Renewable electricity generation rose by 6.3%, mainly due to increases in wind, solar and hydropower. 

The IEA blames the slowing of energy efficiency improvements on lower energy prices as well as a slowdown in energy efficiency policy coverage. Global energy intensity – the amount of energy units needed to create a unit of GDP – improved by 1.7% in 2017, compared to a 2.3% average improvement over the last three years.

The increase in carbon emissions outlined, equivalent to the those of 170mn additional cars on the world’s roads, ‘contrasts with the sharp reduction needed to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement on climate change,’ says the report. The IEA’s Sustainable Development Scenario, which is compatible with climate change targets, sees emissions peaking and declining steeply to 2020 – a task it says will be even harder due to the increase in emissions in 2017.

Global coal demand and coal-fired power generation in Asia may have been up in IEA data for 2017, but a separate report from Coalswarm, the Sierra Club and Greenpeace found that the construction of new coal-fired power plants worldwide is on the decline.

The research indicates that there has been a 28% drop in newly completed coal plants (from 84 GW in 2016 to 60 GW in 2017), and a 73% drop in coal plant construction starts over the last two years (from 170 GW in 2015 to 46 GW in 2017). Around 25 GW of coal-fired capacity was retired in 2017, according to the report, with China and India having the largest declines.

Should the trends continue, the global coal fleet will begin to shrink in 2022 when yearly retirements will exceed new capacity.

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