Top 10 onshore oil projects to add over 1.1mn b/d 2025

Over $83.1bn in capital expenditure will be spent over the lifetime of the top 10 onshore oil projects to produce 9.7bn barrels of crude oil, according to GlobalData. These 10 projects (shown in Figure 1), selected from 126 upcoming onshore projects globally, will contribute incremental capacity of 1,135,034 b/d to global supply by 2025. Kuyumbinskoye in Russia is the largest, with anticipated peak production at 215,485 b/d in 2029 at an estimated cost of $12.8bn.

The average development break-even oil price for top upcoming onshore crude projects stands at $55/b, states GlobalData, with projects in Russia having the highest break-even price at $57/b and Canada the lowest at $52/b. Conventional oil developments need $42/b to break even. Oil sands have an average break-even of $52/b, while heavy oil projects have the highest break-even at $92/b.

GlobalData estimates $83.1bn will be spent to bring the top ten onshore projects online, with $46.7bn forecast by 2025. The Kuyumbinskoye conventional oil development in Russia leads capital investment with $12.8bn over its development lifetime, followed by Canada’s Telephone Lake (Cenovus Energy) oil sands project with $10bn.

Differentiating for project type, the market analyst expects full-cycle capital expenditure per barrel of oil equivalent to average $7.5 for conventional oil projects, $9.2 for oil sands, and $9.8 for heavy oil developments.