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Road freight transport could account for 40% of oil demand growth by 2050 – IEA

Oil demand from road freight transport is projected to grow by 5mn barrels per day by 2050 in the absence of any policy action – according to a report from the International Energy Agency (IEA). Such a rise, from 17mn barrels per day today to 22mn barrels, would account for around 40% of the predicted increase in global oil demand in that period.

The report, The Future of Trucks: Implications for energy and the environment, indicates that this increase could add to demand from a sector that has already contributed 40% to global oil demand growth since 2000 – outpacing all other sectors.

The IEA says it is ‘critical’ to improve the efficiency of road freight transport to reduce the forecasted growth in oil demand, carbon emissions and air pollution over the coming decades.

The report says that freight transport receives far less policy attention than that given to smaller vehicles. Four countries have energy efficiency standards for heavy trucks, compared to 40 countries that have passenger vehicle standards.

Trucks account for a fifth of global oil demand today – or around 17mn barrels per day – which is equivalent to the combined oil production of the US and Canada, according to the IEA. The sector also accounts for around half of global diesel use, a third of all transport-related carbon emissions and a fifth of NOx emissions. Demand is concentrated in the US, the EU and China, with India close behind.

Without action, truck oil use could lead to an increase in carbon dioxide emissions of nearly 900mn tonnes through 2050, says the IEA.

To tackle the problem, the IEA outlines a policy pathway that could reduce road freight energy use by 50% and emissions by 75% by 2050. Measures include improving logistics and routing through GPS; using aerodynamic retrofits and low resistance tyres to aid efficiency in existing trucks; using new efficiency technologies in new trucks; and using alternative fuels such as natural gas, biofuels, electricity and hydrogen.

‘For far too long there has been a lack of policy focus on truck fuel efficiency,’ said the IEA’s Executive Director Dr Fatih Birol, commenting on the report. ‘Given they are now the dominant driver of global oil demand, the issue can no longer be ignored if we are to meet our energy and environmental objectives.’

Dr Birol outlined earlier this month in his Energy Institute Melchett lecture that the increase in emissions from trucks to 2050 under business-as-usual would be higher than those from the increase in coal use globally, in both the power and industrial sectors.

A separate study from Transport & Environment (T&E) says that it is possible to completely decarbonise road freight and buses by 2050 in the EU and Nordic countries – but that this would mean a significant shift in policy with ambitious early action.

The report, Roadmap to climate-friendly land freight and buses in Europe, says that fuel efficiency standards for trucks would be the single most effective measure to reach decarbonisation. This is followed by shifting more road freight onto rail, and improving logistics efficiency. According to T&E around 20% of trucks drive around empty, and around 50% are only partially filled.

Electrification in some form, whether through battery electric or E-highways, would be essential to reach zero emissions, says T&E. And using hydrogen and renewable electricity-to-gas or liquid fuels could also play a role.

The report also recommends a zero emission vehicle quota for buses and delivery vehicles, and road charging, tolls and fuel taxes to drive decarbonisation.

Energy World visited Germany late last year for a detailed look at the issue of decarbonising freight transport.

 

 

 

 

 

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